To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMD DAILY ETF(AMDL)$

📊 Today's Market Flow

AMD closed at $161.8, down -0.21%, continuing its consolidation within the Bearish Zone. The stock has been in this zone for 11 days, during which it avoided larger losses through disciplined selling and observation. Since the bearish entry, AMD has declined -2.9%, reflecting effective downside risk management.

However, market indicators suggest a potential turning point: the probability of transitioning into the Bullish Zone within the next 1 day is 89%. This highlights a pivotal moment for traders and investors as the stock nears the end of its bearish phase.

*Key Factors Driving AMD and the U.S. Stock Market Today

• Strong Year-to-Date Rally

  • AMD shares are up roughly 34–37% YTD, outperforming Nvidia (~21%), largely driven by optimism over its AI accelerator chips (MI350, MI400, MI450).

  • This momentum reflects investor belief that AMD is positioning as a long-term player in AI infrastructure.

• Analyst Ratings & Forecasts

  • Consensus remains “Buy”, with an average 12-month price target of around $174.64 (≈8% upside).

  • Bullish houses like Truist raised targets as high as $213, while Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted AI demand as a key growth driver, forecasting EPS near $4 this year.

• Cautionary Views

  • Seaport Research downgraded AMD to Neutral, citing weaker-than-expected AI order flow, discounting pressures, and cautious spending from hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, Meta).

  • Concerns exist around near-term revenue conversion and demand sustainability.

• Geopolitical & Policy Risks

  • According to the Financial Times, AMD (along with Nvidia) must allocate 15% of China chip sales revenue to the U.S. government in exchange for export license approvals.

  • While this restores Chinese market access, it could squeeze profit margins.

2. Broader Market Context (U.S. Equities)

• Labor Data & Rate-Cut Hopes

  • Weak August payrolls and rising jobless claims fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, sending Treasury yields lower and boosting equity sentiment.

• Consumer Strength

  • Retailers like American Eagle and Macy’s surged on strong earnings, further supporting bullish momentum.

Analyst Takeaway

• AMD remains a core AI-driven growth story with substantial investor interest. The stock’s strong YTD rally and bullish analyst targets highlight confidence in its long-term positioning.

• However, near-term risks—including slower AI order flow, hyperscaler caution, and geopolitical revenue-sharing requirements—suggest that volatility could persist.

• For investors, AMD looks attractive as a long-term AI infrastructure play, but requires careful monitoring of earnings momentum and regulatory headwinds in the short run.

🏦 Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• Current Trend Zone: Bearish

• Recommended Position: Sell and Observe

In the Bearish Zone, AMD is more prone to downside risks than sustained gains. The environment is characterized by:

• Strong selling flows with weak, temporary rebounds.

• Higher downside risk relative to expected returns.

Strategic Implications for Long-Term Investors:

• Remaining on the sidelines has preserved capital during this phase.

• A transition to the Bullish Zone would mark the next buying opportunity, offering a chance to re-engage with lower risk and stronger return potential.

• If bullish confirmation is achieved, gradual accumulation rather than immediate full allocation is advisable, balancing upside potential with risk management.

⚡ Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis

• AMD is still in a Bearish Zone, but indicators suggest a likely shift to Bullish within 1–2 days.

• Short-term strategy must remain flexible:

  • Bearish bias: Continue to sell into rebounds, keeping exposure limited.

  • Bullish scenario: If transition occurs, adopt a Buy-and-Hold stance with tactical entries.

Trading Playbook:

• Buying Window: Sept 5 (tomorrow)

  • Suggested Buy Price: $158.6

• Selling Window: Sept 16–17

  • Suggested Sell Price: $173.6

This setup implies a short-term rebound opportunity of approximately +9% if executed successfully.

🔮 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights

• Expected Price Range: $160.2 – $172.3

• Median Price Forecast: $166.3 (+2.8%)

• Trend Zone Outlook (next 10 days): Bullish (+38%), up from current -6% Bearish

• Reversal Probability: High around Day 2 and Day 6, signaling potential inflection points

Additional insights:

• Correlation with U.S. Market: 77% (high). AMD is likely to mirror Nasdaq and semiconductor sector trends, with only moderate divergence risk.

• Directional Intensity:

  • Upward moves: Avg +2.7% (range +3.6% ~ -0.4%)

  • Downward moves: Avg -1.3% (range +1.3% ~ -2.8%)

• Volatility: Currently low, as buy-sell intensity is balanced. Predictive confidence is therefore higher than usual.

🎯 Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• For Long-Term Investors:
  Patience has paid off in the Bearish Zone, with losses limited to -2.9%. As a bullish transition is highly probable within 1 day, now is the time to prepare capital for re-entry. If bullish confirmation occurs, begin accumulating gradually rather than rushing in.

• For Short-Term Traders:
  A tactical buying opportunity is emerging. Watch closely on Sept 5 around $158.6. A successful rebound could reach $173.6 by mid-September, offering attractive swing-trading potential.

• Final Note:
  AMD is at a critical inflection point. Both long-term and short-term strategies should shift from defensive (Sell/Observe) toward proactive positioning (Buy/Hold) once the Bullish Zone is confirmed. With AMD’s strong correlation to the U.S. market (77%), Nasdaq sentiment will be a key driver in validating this transition.

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