To The Moon

Why I’m Excited About NIO

1. Global Expansion in High-Potential Markets

• NIO is pushing forward into Singapore, Uzbekistan, and Costa Rica between now and 2026. This marks the company’s first foray into parts of Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Americas, including its debut right-hand-drive model thanks to the new Firefly series.

• Coupled with prior European moves, NIO’s footprint is now expanding faster and more strategically than many rivals.

2. Deliveries & Revenue Climbing Fast

• Q2 2025 deliveries hit a record 72,056 vehicles, a huge 25.6% year-on-year jump and a 71% growth compared to Q1.

• Total revenues rose approximately 9% year-on-year to around RMB 19 billion (about US$2.65 billion), driven by brisk delivery volume.

• Gross margin improved to 10%, up from 9.7% last year and showing sequential progress. Vehicle margin remained stable quarter-to-quarter.

3. Losses are Shrinking, Profitability Within Reach

• Net loss narrowed to roughly RMB 5 billion—its lowest since Q4 2023—and down from over RMB 5.1 billion in the prior year.

• Operating losses narrowed around 5–6% year-on-year and more sequentially. Management is pushing to reach break-even in Q4.

4. Solid Guidance & Growth Pipeline

• Q3 delivery forecast is impressive: between 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles, implying roughly 40–47% year-on-year growth.

• New launches like the Onvo L90 and third-gen ES8 add fuel to the growth story.

5. More Resilient Than Many

• Even amid several EV startups folding, NIO is standing strong—continuing deliveries, cutting losses, securing new markets, and expanding infrastructure without collapsing.

6. Potential to Return to $18 Long-Term

• With global expansion, narrowing losses, rising delivery trajectory, and diversified product lines, NIO has the potential to climb back toward $18 per share over the long run, especially if they hit the profitability milestone and maintain upward momentum.

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Key Takeaways

• Growth acceleration: Record-high deliveries and expanding product portfolio.

• Margin stabilization: Gross profits improving despite lower average selling prices.

• Near-term outlook bright: Strong quarterly guidance, new models, and growth in new markets.

• Unique advantage: Battery-swap infrastructure, diversified brands (NIO, Onvo, Firefly).

• Survivor edge: Many others failed—NIO persists, adapts, and scales.

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Final Thought

NIO is no longer just a Chinese luxury EV hopeful; it’s evolving into a global player with tools, strategy, and roadmap for sustained growth. The path back to $18 may be long and requires execution, but the building blocks are clearly being put in place.