SPY bears yell crash.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ bears yell crash. 🩸
My Worse Case Map: -6.5% clean out, then melt-up into late ’25. 🚀
Buying pressure has cooled off a bit the past couple weeks.
But you can’t fight the macro trend.
Monthly BX Trender = Green. 🟢
That’s historically a 60% chance of a 6–12 month breakout with almost no pullbacks.
Weekly BX Trender = Still Green. 🟢
Buyers are still stepping in.
But let’s be clear, this is a premium market.
The discount was back when we were pounding the table at $480–$520.
Now the daily chart’s showing some weakness.
Worst case: a 6–7% retracement.
Key supports: $630, then $600.
That $600 zone is stacked with volume profile support and prior resistance. I believe it holds.
A pullback this size after a 30% breakout is not bearish. It’s healthy. 💯
From there, I see a bounce that can drive us to all-time highs into year-end, right in line with seasonality.
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