To The Moon

Let us examine NIO’s setup ahead of earnings from three angles: fundamentals, sentiment, and technical levels.

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1. Fundamentals

Revenue expectations: Q2 consensus of RMB 19.96B (+14.4% YoY) suggests growth is returning, though still far below Tesla or BYD scale.

Earnings pressure: An adjusted loss of RMB 2.17/share implies NIO remains unprofitable. The narrative has shifted: investors are no longer asking “can NIO survive?” but rather “when does it turn profitable?”

New models as catalysts: NIO’s NT3.0 platform and models such as the ET9 flagship sedan and refreshed SUVs could sustain momentum. However, execution is key — EV buyers in China are increasingly price-sensitive, and competition from Xiaomi SU7, BYD, and Tesla cuts into margins.

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2. Market Sentiment

Sector tailwinds: Chinese EV shares have rallied recently on optimism around government support, rising deliveries, and broader risk-on sentiment in China equities.

Relative outperformance: NIO has led peers in recent gains, meaning expectations may be running higher — increasing the risk of a “sell the news” reaction if results only meet, rather than beat, forecasts.

Investor psychology: The market is now watching profitability milestones, not just deliveries. Any commentary on gross margins, cost controls, or breakeven timelines could outweigh delivery figures.

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3. Technical & Price Outlook

$10 psychological barrier: This level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times. Reclaiming and holding above it will likely require both an earnings beat and strong forward guidance.

Short-term: A positive surprise (stronger-than-expected margins, upbeat guidance) could fuel a rally past $10 quickly.

Medium-term: Sustained recovery above $10 depends on credible progress toward profitability by late 2025.

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Conclusion

Yes, new models can drive momentum — but pricing power is limited given intense competition.

Yes, earnings could surprise if NIO narrows losses faster than expected or signals breakeven visibility.

Reclaiming $10 this year is possible, but it would likely require (1) delivery growth to stay robust, (2) margins to stabilise, and (3) investor confidence in management’s profitability roadmap.

📌 In other words: short-term pop depends on the Q2 beat; long-term sustainability depends on profitability signals.