To The Moon

My Investing Muse (01Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Pfizer lays off 100 workers at former Seagen HQ in Seattle area - Fierce Pharma

• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. is being forced to accelerate planned layoffs after automated emails were mistakenly sent to some employees before they were told of their termination. - Bloomberg

• Nike is taking the layoff route again this year, and this means job cuts for less than 1% of its corporate workforce. The company was recently reported to have 77,800 employees, but it remains unclear just how many from this expansive workforce will be affected by the cuts. - The HR Digest

• Intuitive to lay off 331 employees in California

   

  The robotic surgery company, which filed a WARN notice with the state in August, plans for the layoffs to be effective in late October. - MedTechDive

These are some of the layoffs which were announced in the past week.

Is Europe ok?

German GDP share in the global economy hit near an all-time low of 4.3%. This is down from 8.4% in the 1990s. The German economy's share in world GDP has nearly HALVED over the last 3 decades. - X user Global Markets Investor

Image

Image

Given the above news surrounding the strongest economies in Europe, will they be ok? Should they end the Ukraine sonnest? What can be done to save them from these?

Let us be aware and consider some hedging if we have exposure to European assets.

My final thoughts

Image

The Fed usually starts cutting rates before a recession begins. Will this time be different? - X user Peter Berezin

Image

Core PCE is almost 50% above the target and trending UP. It is criminal malfeasance if the Fed cuts rates without obvious recessionary indicators. - X user Uncle Milty’s Ghost

The historical correlation between Federal Reserve rate cuts and subsequent recessions is a notable trend, but it does not guarantee a similar outcome in the future. While this pattern warrants careful attention, it is not a definitive predictor of a pending recession.

Given the current persistent inflation, a key consideration for the Federal Reserve is whether a rate hike might be a more appropriate measure to combat rising prices. However, such a move must be weighed against other economic factors. A significant portion of U.S. Treasury assets requires refinancing, and a lower interest rate environment would naturally reduce the government's interest expenses.

Conversely, market forces may push bond yields higher. The risk-reward tolerance of both domestic and international investors can lead to increased bond rates in the open market, regardless of the Federal Reserve's actions. This dynamic creates a complex environment for policymakers as they work to balance controlling inflation, managing government debt, and responding to broader market signals.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

This week, we will focus on reviewing our financial position by analysing our expenditures, income, and savings. Our core principles will be to operate within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage.

I am also conducting a review of our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$