Will You Follow Major Trend or Bet on an Underdog Comeback?
This Wednesday, $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ released its latest earnings report. Profit pressure led to a sharp plunge in its stock price. Just one day later, $Alibaba(BABA)$ reported earnings — and the highlight was its “Taobao Flash Sale” instant retail service, which reached 80 million daily orders with peaks hitting 120 million orders.
That 80M number caught the market’s attention — it was exactly Meituan’s average daily orders before the food delivery wars.
Meituan stock plunged 12% on earnings day.
Alibaba stock surged 12% the very next day.
At the earnings call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing said:
“In a big competition, being the underdog is the most exciting position to be in. That’s why this is so thrilling.”
But the reality is, in just four months, Taobao has essentially “built its own Meituan.” Over the long term, this self-made Meituan could synergize with Alibaba’s massive e-commerce ecosystem and unlock unlimited imagination for a one-stop consumer platform.
Meituan is worth 500B RMB, but compared with Alibaba’s scale and ecosystem, it is clear who benefits more from a drawn-out battle. Taobao invested 50B RMB into instant retail. Meanwhile, Alibaba’s net profit still reached 42.4B RMB, up 76% YoY, beating expectations — thanks to its diversified portfolio.
On top of that, Alibaba’s surprise announcement of launching its own AI chip overshadowed $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ weaker-than-expected results, contributing to Nvidia’s 3% drop on Friday.
The value of Taobao Flash Sale goes three layers deep:
Reshape the food delivery landscape → Recreate a “Meituan” within Alibaba.
Boost Taobao e-commerce growth → August data shows DAU up 20% and MAU up 25%, a scale of user growth no amount of ad spend can buy.
Integrate services & traditional e-commerce → Pave the way for an AI-era super consumer platform.
Questions:
How do you see Meituan’s sharp drop?
Will you bet on the underdog or ride the surge?
Why underdog? NVDA is the least institutionally held among the Mag 7. The popular one may have fewer upside potential. Risk-reward ratio may be low.
Why the major trend? At least you won’t lose money on Nvidia.
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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至于要不要押注失败者，我的看法比较务实。失败者并非没有机会，美团这样的基本盘依然稳固，如果能在盈利模式或新业务上找到突破点，未来反弹空间一定比大趋势股更大。但问题是，这种转折往往需要时间和运气。与其孤注一掷，我更愿意把它当作小仓位的“期权”，赌它有反转的可能性。
相反，大趋势股像英伟达，虽然估值高企，但胜在确定性。机构持仓可能不算极致集中，但它在 AI 硬件上的垄断地位就是最大的护城河。买它可能拿不到翻倍，但至少你不会轻易亏大钱。
所以我个人会“两条腿走路”：大仓位跟随大趋势，拿稳确定性，小仓位埋伏可能的反转，这样既能享受安全感，也保留了惊喜的可能。
Still, I like the “underdog” angle. Companies under pressure often innovate the fastest, and Wang Xing’s remark about being the underdog highlights that potential. With the market pricing in fear, contrarians could see an opportunity if Meituan finds new ways to defend its ground.
That said, Alibaba’s scale and AI push make it the safer play. Like Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ in chips, leaders may offer lower upside but greater security. My approach is to ride Alibaba’s strength while keeping an eye on Meituan in case the underdog surprises.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Then came Alibaba's plot twist : a stellar Q2, 12% stock surge & a surprise AI Chip launch. Taobao Instant Commerce hit 80 million daily orders, backed by RMB 50 billion in subsidies.
Alibaba now looks like it is rewriting the play book.
So who wins?
Meituan is the quiet compounding bao. Alibaba is the phoenix with silicon wings. Analysts are torn, regulators are watching and investors are recalibrating.
I am reminded that resilience isn't loud and reinvention isn't cheap. But both parties Meituan and Alibaba make for one big dumpling duel.
@Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
Nvidia is really not in the same league as Meituan. Nvidia has established itself as the market leader with many fighting for its chips. Even with the rise of Alibaba, Nvidia still has a massive market and demand outside of China and has no lack of business. This is unlike Meituan which has yet to establish its international presence that it can comfortably step away from the competition in China.
If Meituan establishes itself in the international market, then I would bet on it even if it is the underdog in China.
美團-W值得500B人民幣，但與阿里巴巴-SW的規模和生態系統相比，誰從一場持久戰中獲益更多，一目瞭然。淘寶投資50B人民幣進入即時零售。與此同時，阿里巴巴-SW的淨利潤仍達到42.4 B人民幣得益於其多元化的投資組合，同比增長76%，超出預期。
除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW的驚喜宣佈推出自家AI芯
除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW的驚喜宣佈推出自家AI芯片蒙上陰影$英偉達(NVDA)$業績弱於預期，爲英偉達的週五下跌3%.
as the saying goes " every dog has its day " !
Market Share and Competition
- Meituan dominates China's food delivery market with a 65.8% market share, while Alibaba's Ele.me holds around 27%. Despite Alibaba's superior financial resources, Meituan has pulled ahead in this space.
- The competition between Meituan and Alibaba has led to a price war, with both companies incurring significant losses. Meituan's net income plummeted 97% to RMB365.3 million in the June quarter due to "irrational competition".
- Meituan operates on a 4.0 model, offering a wide range of third-party services across sectors like entertainment, travel, food delivery, and groceries. Its revenue grew at a CAGR of 88.3%, outpacing Alibaba's growth.
- Alibaba, on the other hand, has a more diversified business model, with a strong e-commerce segment and a growing cloud computing division. Its revenue grew 38% year-over-year to RMB 161.46 billion.m
@BillyR
The decision between betting on the underdog or following the major trend is a classic investment dilemma as the former carries higher risk but potential for big returns while the latter offers lower risk with more limited upside。。。
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