📡🎙️🚀 Sirius XM: I’m Long With Buffett, Shorts Are Trapped 🚀🎙️📡
$Sirius XM(SIRI)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 🎧 Why I entered
I’ve opened a position in $SIRI at $23.60, now already green at $23.66 (+0.26%). I stepped in because the setup is too asymmetric to ignore. Sirius is breaking out of a 7-month triangle, closing above its 50WMA for the first time in over 2 years (see weekly chart), and short interest is stacked at 36% of float. That’s the kind of coiled spring Buffett loves.
📊 Buffett is buying hand over fist
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway just added 5M shares, now holding ~35% of Sirius. He’s not chasing Spotify’s growth hype or Netflix’s momentum; he’s buying a monopoly at 8.2× forward earnings. For context, Spotify trades at 40× and Netflix at 30×. Sirius owns 100% of U.S. satellite audio bandwidth, giving it a legal moat no streaming rival can replicate.
💡 The content pivot
Howard Stern’s multi-decade run may be ending, freeing Sirius to redirect hundreds of millions toward next-gen talent like Alex Cooper. Stern’s audience is aging, while Cooper connects with millennials and Gen Z. Meanwhile, Spotify has climbed to 37% U.S. market share (up from 31% in 2020), while Apple Music has slipped to 25% (see subscriber share chart). A JV or tighter integration with Apple Music would change the narrative overnight.
📉 Financial resilience
Sirius’s fundamentals look better beneath the surface. Adjusted EBITDA has edged down ($2.83B → $2.73B from 2022–2024), but free cash flow has fallen faster ($1.55B → $1.02B). The point: revenue is under pressure, yet cash flows remain sticky because 75% of sales come from subscriptions (see EBITDA/FCF chart). That durability explains why Buffett is leaning in while others panic.
📈 Trade levels and squeeze math
• Entry zone: $21.50–22.00
• Current: $23.66 (my entry $23.60, already +0.26%)
• Breakout trigger: $24.50 weekly close
• Targets: $27.80 (swing) and $33.00 (long-term reversion to highs)
• Stop: under $20.50
Here’s the real kicker: 36% of float short, 19.3M open short interest, and 3.4 days to cover. Above $24.50, shorts don’t just feel pain; they get forced into covering.
🧭 Why now matters
Analyst consensus is split: 33% Hold, 33% Sell, only 26% Buy. Average PT is $23.78, with targets ranging $18–29 (see analyst chart). That wall of skepticism is rocket fuel if the breakout holds. Meanwhile, Sirius extended its $2B revolving facility to 2030, locking in liquidity for years. In an industry where tariffs hit most sectors, media and entertainment have proven more resilient.
📣 The conviction
I’m positioned long, already green, and betting alongside Buffett while shorts lean too hard. Sirius is trading where pessimism is fully priced in, yet technicals, cash flow durability, and strategic pivots are flipping. This is how asymmetric trades look before the market catches up.
❓Do you ride with Buffett and front-run the squeeze, or do you think the Stern exit marks the beginning of the end?
📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
@Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerObserver @TigerStars @TigerPM @Daily_Discussion @1PC
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- Kiwi Tigress·2025-08-30TOPI’m locked in on this one because you nailed how Buffett’s stake flips the whole narrative. The way you broke down the short interest with 36% of the float and the clear breakout trigger at $24.50 makes it sound like a coiled spring. It’s crazy seeing you already green on the trade because it shows conviction and timing. What really hooks me is that comparison to SPOT and AAPL, it makes me feel like SIRI is that overlooked gem with all the ingredients for a squeeze.4Report
- Cool Cat Winston·2025-08-30TOPI like how you tied the Stern pivot directly to shifting demographics because that’s what makes the Cooper angle relevant. Sirius holding that 50WMA is impressive, and when I compare it to how SPOT has outperformed, the value gap looks obvious. Buffett’s stake is the ultimate conviction signal.6Report
- Tui Jude·2025-08-30TOP📡The detail on free cash flow holding up better than revenue is the piece that stood out most to me. Markets often miss how sticky subscription models can be, and that’s where Sirius feels different from META or NFLX. Your entry at $23.60 with targets lined up is a sharp asymmetric setup.2Report
- Queengirlypops·2025-08-30TOPThis setup feels wild because it’s one of those trades where the math on shorts is screaming loud. When you said 3.4 days to cover, that clicked for me since that’s where the big unwind happens if price holds above $24.50. The whole Stern exit combined with younger talent like Alex Cooper shifts the story forward, not backward, and it lines up perfectly with how Apple’s been trying to pivot. I’m actually hyped to watch this play out because it feels like a true Buffett-style deep value that could rip way faster than people think fr2Report
- Hen Solo·2025-08-30TOP🍎The Apple Music JV speculation feels very credible given Apple’s pressure to claw back share from Spotify. Sirius having a monopoly on satellite bandwidth isn’t talked about enough, and Buffett clearly sees it. I like the breakout framing since it matches what we’ve seen in AAPL after reclaiming its moving averages.2Report
- 1PC·2025-08-31TOPNice Sharing 😊 Good luck to your trade 👍😁 @JC888 @koolgal @Shyon @Shernice軒嬣 20001Report