To The Moon

$Nucor(NUE)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🔥 Buffett’s 6.6M-share bet on $NUE isn’t about chasing steel’s cycle; it’s about owning the backbone of America’s AI and infrastructure buildout, and that makes it a Buy with targets at 153.63 and 159–162.

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m convinced Buffett’s quiet steel play isn’t just contrarian; it’s a statement that even his branded confidence can’t revive housing on its own, as Bloomberg noted. That contrast underscores how foundational $NUE actually is. Berkshire’s latest 13F shows a fresh 6.6M-share buy in Q2, revealing Nucor as one of the “mystery stocks.” Price sits near 148 with analysts’ average target at 153.63 and a high at 182. Options for the 05Sep week show implied vol near 29.99 percent and a rising call skew into 155–160. This is not a commodity coin-flip. It is a strategic exposure to steel-adjacent, higher margin businesses like data center infrastructure and utility towers that compound as the capex wave accelerates.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Q2 2025 results: net earnings attributable to shareholders 603M, EPS 2.60, net sales 8.46B, EBITDA 1.30B. Sequential earnings grew across all three reporting segments. CEO Leon Topalian emphasized: “Our team delivered a solid second quarter, with sequential earnings growth from all three of Nucor’s reporting segments, and did so while setting another safety record in the first half of 2025.” That’s critical credibility in a cyclical industry.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk

Execution remains capital-intensive with multi-site buildouts and potential timing risk on facility ramps. Tariff regimes can shift. Some raw materials are imported, so not every vector is insulated. Near-term steel pricing remains cyclical, which can pressure spreads. Offsetting this, Nucor’s electric arc furnace model is structurally lower cost and greener than blast furnaces and is vertically supported by The David J. Joseph Company, one of the largest scrap processors in the U.S. The company is also tilting to “steel-adjacent” offerings, including data center infrastructure, which diversifies revenue quality and dampens pure commodity exposure.

Thanks to US Tariff, steel prices in the US are the most expensive in the world.

There is not even a benefit for the US Steel producers, that can cover increased demand.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment

Seventeen analysts show a Buy-leaning stance: Strong Buy 24 percent, Buy 47 percent, Hold 29 percent. Average target 153.63, low 130, high 182. UBS maintains Buy and lifted its PT to 169, citing tariff durability, project momentum, strong FCF yield, and upward EBITDA revisions. Berkshire’s revealed position adds a powerful “smart-money” signal. Relevant ETFs that can direct flows: $SLX and $XME, where NUE carries ~3.5 percent weight. Key peers for relative read-through: $STLD and $CLF. For context, Steel Dynamics (STLD) trades around 12x forward earnings vs NUE’s 17.8x, reflecting the premium valuation for NUE’s diversification and infrastructure exposure. While Buffett trims mega-positions like $AAPL and $BAC, his confident shift into $NUE shows where he thinks America’s industrial backbone truly flexes.

📉📈 Technical Setup

4-hour chart: price advanced to the 151–152 area before pulling back toward 148, riding rising Keltner 240 and Bollinger 240 envelopes with 13EMA and 21EMA above the 55EMA. The structure reads like an orderly flag within expanding bands. Current RSI ~58.4 on 4H, a mid-range bullish stance, not overbought. MACD histogram prints +0.25 with MACD line above signal, confirming trend.

30-minute chart: breakout above 150 faded into 148, now hovering near the mid-Keltner zone. Nearby supports: 147–146 at rising 55EMA cluster and lower Keltner shelf. Resistances: 151–152 and then 153.63 at Street average target. Options micro shows 05Sep calls: delta 0.523 at 148C, 0.463 at 149C, 0.404 at 150C, 0.270 at 152.5C, 0.165 at 155C with notable 153 contracts, vega 0.056. IV sits at 29.99 percent ±6.98, consistent with compression-then-release setup.

Short dynamics: daily short ratio 25.52 percent, short volume 240.7K on 27Aug with price near 150.33. A push through 151–152 could force incremental covering.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context

AI demand is not just silicon. Data centers, power generation, and transmission lines need steel first. S&P Global projects U.S. utility capex eclipsing 1T over 2025–2029 as federal programs and AI data center load drive spend. Project Stargate and other hyperscale initiatives imply durable structural demand for cabinets, racks, cages, poles, and substations. Policy tone favors domestic manufacturing and critical materials resiliency, a tailwind to Nucor’s U.S. footprint. MarketWatch underscored that Buffett didn’t place one bet; he spread 4.8B across six industrials, anchoring on inevitabilities not hype. Social chatter on X spiked after Buffett’s filing: mentions of “AI steel play” hit a 3-month high on 15Aug, confirming unusual retail attention to an otherwise under-the-radar ticker. Seasonality adds nuance: historically, NUE underperforms SPX in late August but outpaces in September–October, suggesting the current pullback could precede a relative strength bounce.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health

Forward P-E 17.83 with a three-year historical percentile of 91.67 percent. Forward EPS 8.432. Historical range across three years: max 18.37, min 3.57, average 12.27. On absolute terms that screens above the steel median; however, the mix-shift to higher-margin products and “steel-adjacent” segments supports a justified premium, particularly with secular capex demand. Dividend yield ~1.47 percent and a 52-year streak of raises confirms Dividend King caliber. Repurchases have been consistent, supported by strong liquidity and an untapped 2.3B revolver.

To sharpen the valuation and capital health narrative, I compared Nucor directly to Steel Dynamics ($STLD), its most relevant peer in electric-arc steelmaking. The contrast is striking:

• Dividend Increase Streak: NUE 52 years vs STLD 13 years; a Dividend King versus a relative newcomer.

• Q2 2025 Revenue: NUE $8.46B vs STLD $4.60B; scale provides greater leverage across projects and pricing power.

• Q2 2025 Net Income: NUE $603M vs STLD $299M; profitability demonstrates NUE’s superior execution through the cycle.

• Cash & Short-Term Investments (Q2 2025): NUE $2.48B vs STLD $0.46B; liquidity supports resilience, buybacks, and capex flexibility.

• Cumulative Share Repurchases: NUE $10.3B over the past 5.5 years vs STLD $6.7B since 2017; stronger capital return commitment.

This peer view reinforces why NUE trades at a premium multiple. Its scale, balance sheet, and shareholder return record clearly outpace STLD, positioning Nucor as the higher-quality long-term compounding vehicle in steel.

🔌 Strategy Expansion: Data Centers, Towers, Utilities

Nucor acquired Southwest Data Products in 2024 for 115M and launched a data systems division positioned as a single-source provider of cabinets, racks, cages, and support structures for hyperscale buildouts. Utility-facing towers and structures are scaling across new factories in Alabama, Indiana, and Utah, aimed at poles and substation structures during a trillion-dollar grid overhaul cycle.

🧾 Buffett & Form 13F Context

Berkshire’s Q2 filing unveiled buys in UnitedHealth, Nucor, Lennar, D.R. Horton, Lamar, and Allegion, with Nucor one of three previously confidential “mystery” holdings. For many investors, tracking 13F movements remains an effective way to shadow smart-money rotations, though filings are snapshots rather than forward guidance. As Bloomberg stressed, not even Buffett’s confidence buys can single-handedly spur a housing recovery; yet in steel, the narrative shifts.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan

I am rating $NUE a Buy on structural demand and mix shift.

• Swing entry zone: 146.50–148.20 near 21EMA–55EMA confluence and mid-Keltner.

• Invalidation: close below 145 with rising volume.

• Targets: base 153.63 in line with Street average, stretch 159–162 on band extension and sentiment follow-through.

• Confirmation signals: reclaim and hold above 151.50, RSI >60 on 4H, MACD continuation with positive histogram, call volumes at 152.5C/155C outpacing puts.

• Catalysts: hyperscale data center announcements, utility capex awards, tariff clarity, and Q3 commentary on towers and data systems backlog.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m positioning Nucor as the steel backbone of the AI cycle. Chips grab headlines. Beams, racks, cages, poles, and substations build the future. This isn’t a cyclical trade; it’s the structural rerating of steel as AI’s hidden infrastructure. And Buffett isn’t betting on hype; he’s betting on America’s backbone.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Q2 2025 EPS 2.60 on net earnings 603M; net sales 8.46B; EBITDA 1.30B.

• Berkshire added 6.6M shares in Q2, elevating Nucor among its new buys.

• Analyst snapshot: avg PT 153.63, high 182, low 130; UBS Buy 169 on tariff durability and project momentum.

• Options 05Sep: IV 29.99 percent; notable 155C volume at 153 contracts; delta 0.523 at 148C down to 0.052 at 160C.

• Valuation: Forward P-E 17.83, historical percentile 91.67 percent; forward EPS 8.432.

• Seasonality: NUE historically lags SPX in late Aug but outpaces into fall; retail sentiment spike confirms unusual visibility.

• CEO Leon Topalian: “Our team delivered a solid second quarter… while setting another safety record.”

📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerPM @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerObserver @1PC