🚗⚡📊 Li Auto 28Aug25 Earnings Spotlight 📊⚡🚗
$Li Auto(LI)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
📉 Technical landscape
I’m tracking Li Auto’s daily Elliott Wave where a corrective A B C completed into October 2023. Key supports are the 61.8 percent retracement near 31.35 and the deeper 27.01 level. Initial resistance sits around 42 to 44. On the weekly chart price is testing its long-term ascending channel near 23 to 24. Holding that channel preserves an upside path toward 48. A breakdown would increase risk toward 21 which aligns with the revised ADR target.
💰 Earnings expectations
Wall Street looks for Q2 EPS of 0.24 on revenue of 4.45B. Options imply a 7.6 percent move. Li Auto reports before the open at 04:30 EST in a crowded window.
🔻 Analyst sentiment
Macquarie downgraded Li Auto from Neutral to Underperform, cutting its ADR price target from 28 to 21 and its Hong Kong listing target from HKD 110 to HKD 82. The note flags risk of a Q2 miss on volume and revenue, trims 2025 sales volume by 20 percent, and highlights tough competition from Tesla Model Y and Xiaomi YU7. The September launch of Li Auto’s full-electric i6 SUV is flagged as a near-term catalyst and credibility test. Vehicle margin has some upside similar to Geely and XPeng, but topline growth looks capped.
🧠 M100 chip program
Prototype completed in Q1 and passed functional and performance tests in two weeks. Installed in small prototype fleets for road testing. For LLM tasks a single M100 delivers effective compute similar to two Nvidia Thor U chips. For CNN vision tasks a single M100 is comparable to three Thor U chips. Mass production and vehicle integration expected next year. Until then Li Auto continues to rely on Nvidia and Horizon Robotics. CTO Xie Yan ex Intel, Alibaba, Huawei is driving a tight hardware and software strategy to maximize real world performance.
⚔️ Competitive landscape
Nio’s Shenji NX9031 replaces four Nvidia Orin X chips in production models like ET9 and updated ET5, ES6, EC6. Nio is exploring a chip spin off to supply other automakers. XPeng’s G7 and next gen P7 use three Turing AI chips that deliver more than 2,200 TOPS. Li Auto’s M100 puts it in the in-house silicon race, but execution speed is crucial.
🌏 China tech comeback context
Li Auto sits inside the broader China comeback with BYD, NIO, XPeng, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Xiaomi, JD, and Trip.com. Sector headwinds include pricing pressure, tariff risk, and subsidy shifts, yet proprietary chips and new model launches are long term valuation drivers.
🔄 Rotation note
When NIO starts pulling back I often see relative bid shift toward Li Auto.
🗓 Key events today 28Aug25 All EST
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 US GDP QoQ second estimate
08:30 US PCE Prices prelim
10:00 US Pending Home Sales
11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing
13:00 US 7 Year Auction
⏰ Earnings schedule highlights
Before open
04:30 Li Auto
06:00 TD Bank
06:00 Baozun BZUN
06:30 Hormel Foods HRL
06:45 Burlington Stores BURL
06:45 Build A Bear BBW
06:45 Titan Machinery TITN
06:45 Movado Group MOV
06:50 Dollar General DG
06:50 Genesco GCO
06:55 Bath and Body Works BBWI
07:00 Best Buy BBY
07:00 DICK’S Sporting Goods DKS
07:00 Victoria’s Secret VSCO
07:00 EDAP TMS EDAP
07:00 Malibu Boats MBUU
07:30 Ollie’s Bargain Outlet OLLI
07:30 Lucky Strike Entertainment LUCK
08:00 Brown Forman BF.B
After hours
16:00 Autodesk ADSK
16:05 Marvell Technology MRVL
16:05 Dell Technologies DELL
16:05 ULTA Beauty ULTA
16:05 Affirm AFRM
16:05 SentinelOne S
16:05 Ambarella AMBA
16:05 Elastic ESTC
16:05 Petco WOOF
16:10 Iris Energy IREN
16:15 Gap Inc. GPS
📈 Implied move
DG 7.00
BBY 7.10
BBWI 8.60
DKS 6.20
LI 7.60
VSCO 14.00
BURL 6.90
TD 3.70
OLLI 8.60
HRL 3.40
MRVL 8.50
DELL 7.20
S 8.80
AFRM 11.40
ULTA 5.70
IREN 11.60
GAP 9.60
ADSK 4.50
Webull 7.10
ESTC 15.8
⚖️ Trading framework
A revenue miss could validate the downgrade and pressure price toward 21 to 22. A clean EPS print with constructive margin talk could pivot price back toward 29 to 31 within the channel. The i6 launch is the immediate product catalyst. The M100 program is next year’s integration and a multi year narrative lever.
❓ Question
Do you see Li Auto holding its long-term channel support at 23 to 24 and rebounding post earnings, or is Macquarie’s 21 target more realistic given the crowded EV competition from Tesla and Xiaomi?
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- Kiwi Tigress·2025-08-29TOPI’m all about how you broke down the technical channel at 23 to 24 and set it against Macquarie’s 21 target. That kind of probability framework makes me think of when NIO’s chip news lifted the stock despite heavy competition. I feel like conviction in product cycles matters even more than analyst notes1Report
- Hen Solo·2025-08-29TOP🚙That note on Macquarie cutting the HK target to 82 really stood out. If the i6 launch matches expectations it could shift the narrative quickly. I see similarities with how Tesla leveraged product cycles to overcome bearish calls when margins looked pressured.2Report
- Tui Jude·2025-08-29TOP📊你将7.6%的隐含涨幅与Elastic等15.8%的涨幅放在一起的方式给出了真正的视角。我在同一收益窗口中关注百思买的设置，有趣的是这些消费者品牌如何将情绪重新转向电动汽车行业。4Report
- Cool Cat Winston·2025-08-29TOP🔋I’m really intrigued by how you tied Li Auto’s M100 chip to the bigger EV silicon race. That detail about it equaling two Thor U chips for LLMs makes me think of how Marvell’s custom silicon is gaining traction in AI too. Holding that 23 to 24 channel could be pivotal short term.3Report
- Enid Bertha·2025-09-22Let's combine all efforts and investments under Nio. Li Auto is a good company, but Nio is much better for the short and long termLikeReport
- BlancheElsie·2025-08-28It's tough with competition heating up, but if the channels hold, we might see a strong rebound.1Report
- Venus Reade·2025-09-22走，走，繼續走，李。自動的。中國最好的股票。LikeReport