To The Moon

Nvidia: When the Market Gets Too Greedy

This may be written after Nvidia’s latest earnings, but my perspective hasn’t changed — I’ve felt the same way for quite some time.

Retail investors have been chasing Nvidia to all-time highs ever since the AI boom began a few years ago. More recently, the frenzy has only intensified. In the past few months alone, we’ve seen chip stocks rally on almost every piece of news — and sometimes even without news at all.

• When big tech companies reported strong earnings and pledged billions toward AI, Nvidia surged.

• When the U.S. government allowed chips to be sold to China, Nvidia rallied again.

• When AMD delivered solid results, Nvidia rallied.

• Even when there was no fresh catalyst, Nvidia kept pushing higher.

On the rare occasions when there was negative news, the pullback was short-lived. For example:

• When the U.S. administration proposed new taxes on Nvidia and AMD, the stock dipped for a day — then resumed its rally.

• When China announced restrictions on buying Nvidia chips, the stock still climbed.

• Even after reports surfaced that many companies are seeing little to no return on their AI investments, chip stocks pressed higher.

If this isn’t a bubble in the making, what is?

This is a textbook example of Warren Buffett’s famous saying: “Be fearful when others are greedy.” And right now, the market’s greed around Nvidia is unmistakable.

To be clear, I’m not saying AI is overhyped or that chipmakers don’t have a long-term future. The technology is real, and so are the opportunities. But the blindness of pushing these stocks beyond reasonable value sets the stage for a sharp correction when expectations don’t play out.

For true long-term growth, companies like Nvidia should be allowed to grow more organically — not fueled by relentless hype.