To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$🇨🇳 DeepSeek’s R2 delay exposes China’s AI hardware limits 🇨🇳

I’m watching the DeepSeek news closely. Their highly anticipated R2 model has been delayed after persistent training failures on Huawei’s Ascend chips. Engineers on site couldn’t resolve the issues, forcing DeepSeek to train entirely on Nvidia’s H20 chips, with Ascend relegated to inference only. That’s not just a technical snag; it’s a clear statement on the current hierarchy of AI compute.

Nvidia’s training dominance leaves $AMD on the sidelines in China

DeepSeek, dubbed the “Pinduoduo of AI” for delivering high-performance models at a fraction of competitor costs, has been shaking the market since R1. But the R2 hiccup proves that when it comes to high-end AI training, Nvidia remains the only game in town. Even $AMD’s impressive MI300 series, which is gaining traction in Western markets, hasn’t yet established a foothold in China; it is subject to the same export-control oversight that tracks every imported chip.

China’s chip self-reliance clock just got pushed back

For Beijing, the endgame is clear: build domestic compute power through Ascend, Biren, and other homegrown architectures to escape reliance on US hardware. But after this public stumble, the timeline looks longer than expected. In the meantime, Nvidia’s hardware-software ecosystem, anchored by CUDA, keeps it firmly in the lead. This software moat is just as important as the silicon itself; even if hardware parity arrives, the development environment won’t be easy to replicate.

Geopolitics still favours Nvidia’s moat

From a geopolitical lens, the Chinese government’s tech-self-sufficiency push hit turbulence. Ironically, despite national security warnings about Nvidia’s H20, it still got the nod because the performance gap is real. Until domestic chips can train at scale without compromises, Nvidia remains indispensable to China’s AI ambitions.

Technical structure supports the bullish thesis

On the charts, $NVDA’s 4H is consolidating above the mid-Keltner band and 21 EMA after a powerful July–early August rally. The upper Bollinger band flattens near 185, hinting at short-term digestion, while deeper trend support sits at the 55 EMA around 176. A clean reclaim of 183–184 could open the door to 185.50–187; losing 179.50 risks probing that 176 zone.

Traders: this is where fundamentals and technicals converge

For me, this is fundamentals and technicals aligning: DeepSeek’s pivot back to Nvidia is a bullish catalyst layered on top of an already strong setup. $AMD has a role globally, but in China, Nvidia’s lead is unchallenged for now; the domestic catch-up clock just got extended.

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