Tech's Counter-Punch

How $Apple(AAPL)$ 's mega-rally and renewed rate cut hopes invalidated the bearish case for the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , leaving other indices behind.

Last week’s bearish weekly setup, which suggested potential downside, gave way to a bullish reversal this past week. The move was strong enough to invalidate the bearish structures in the tech-heavy NDX. However, this bullish confirmation is not yet as clear for the broader $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , and even less so for the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and small-caps $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , which continue to lag.

The week's upward thrust was not a broad-based advance but rather a concentrated rally driven decisively by the technology sector, fueled by significant company-specific news and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop.

Leading the pack was Apple, which exploded with a +13.3% gain, its biggest weekly percentage jump since 2020. This major breakout was ignited by the announcement that Apple would invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., raising its total commitment to $600 billion over the next four years. A move of this magnitude in one of the market's largest components has the power to single-handedly fuel a broader rally.

Adding to the tech bullishness, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ posted a solid 5% gain for the week. The advance was fueled by news that the U.S. government has authorized the company to resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China. This decision allows NVIDIA to re-engage with a critical market while navigating complex export controls, providing a significant boost to its outlook.

Other tech giants added gains during the week as follows in this weekly heat map for the SPX components:

Underpinning the rally is the broader market narrative, which is increasingly discounting future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bond market pricing now reflects expectations of the federal funds rate declining to around 3% by the end of 2026, with some financial institutions anticipating as many as four rate cuts. This dovish outlook on monetary policy is providing a supportive environment for risk assets.

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