To The Moon

Unlike individual stocks, the ETFs I currently hold (SOXS, TLT, and TLH) don’t have upcoming earnings reports that I need to track. That’s one of the key differences between investing in thematic or macro-driven ETFs and holding individual companies: the focus shifts from quarterly performance to bigger-picture trends.

Let’s break it down:

SOXS – Betting Against Semiconductors (Temporarily)

SOXS, or the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares, is a leveraged ETF that inversely tracks the performance of the semiconductor sector. It’s a high-risk, high-volatility instrument definitely not for the faint of heart. Since it’s a 3x inverse ETF, it’s designed for short-term tactical trades rather than long-term investing. I use it carefully, more as a way to express a short-term bearish view on the sector.

Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares (SOXS)

Now, while SOXS is tied to the performance of semiconductor companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, I don’t spend much time tracking individual earnings. That’s because SOXS doesn’t rise or fall based on one company’s performance. It reflects the overall sector movement. So instead of zooming in on micro-level events like earnings calls, I pay more attention to macro-level factors:

• Broader tech sentiment

• Valuation bubbles

• Federal Reserve policy

• Cycles in semiconductor demand (think PC sales, AI hype, inventory gluts)

• Geopolitical tensions impacting chip supply chains

The semiconductor space is known for its boom-bust cycles, and SOXS can be a tool to play the downside but timing and risk management are everything.

TLT & TLH – Positioning for Interest Rate Moves

The other two ETFs I hold, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) and TLH (iShares 10–20 Year Treasury Bond ETF), are about interest rates and monetary policy.

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

These aren’t positions where earnings reports matter. Bonds don’t have earnings in the traditional sense. Instead, what moves these ETFs are the shifts in yields and expectations about future rate cuts or hikes.

That means instead of tracking specific dates, I focus on key macroeconomic indicators like:

• Inflation data (CPI, PCE)

• Employment numbers (non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate)

• Fed meeting minutes and rate decisions

• Recession signals (inverted yield curve, PMI data)

• Treasury auctions and government debt issuance

In a market where the Fed is juggling inflation control and economic slowdown risks, TLT and TLH can become very sensitive instruments. If rates fall, bond prices rise and so do these ETFs. Conversely, if the market starts to price in "higher for longer," these positions can face pressure.

The Common Thread: Macro Matters More Than Micro

Across all three of these ETFs, the common denominator is macro strategy. Whether I’m betting on a short-term downturn in semiconductors or positioning for potential rate cuts via longer-dated Treasuries, the key is to keep my eyes on the big picture, not just quarterly earnings.

That means:

• Watching inflation trends more than revenue beats

• Studying central bank commentary more than analyst upgrades

• Monitoring yield curves, not just PE ratios

While some investors enjoy the granular detail of company fundamentals, my approach with these ETFs is more about zooming out — understanding where we are in the cycle, what’s happening globally, and how sentiment is shifting.

Final Thoughts

There may not be any earnings dates circled on my calendar for SOXS, TLT, or TLH but that doesn’t mean I’m not actively watching. In fact, in many ways, these positions require even closer attention to fast-moving macroeconomic developments. I’m not just investing in sectors or companies. I’m investing in narratives, cycles, and sentiment.

For me, the signals that matter come not from earnings calls, but from bond markets, economic data releases, and the decisions of the Federal Reserve.