To The Moon

With AMD set to report earnings on August 5, and other Big Tech names continuing to release results throughout the month, investors are closely watching for signals of continued AI-driven capex expansion, a key driver for both AMD and Nvidia.

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🏗️ Will Big Tech Increase Capex?

The trend suggests: yes, but more selectively.

AI infrastructure remains a top priority, particularly in cloud (e.g., AWS, Azure, Google Cloud), where demand for GPUs and AI accelerators remains robust.

Capex growth is likely to continue at firms building proprietary LLMs, expanding data centres, or enhancing inference capacity.

However, non-AI capex may flatten or decline, as companies tighten costs in slower-growth segments.

In short, AI-related capex will stay elevated, which supports both Nvidia and AMD demand pipelines though Nvidia still holds the lion’s share of current deployments.

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⚔️ AMD vs Nvidia: Who Hits $200 First?

Company Price Momentum Earnings Outlook AI Position Risk Profile

Nvidia (NVDA) Already well above $200 High expectations, priced for perfection Market leader in AI GPUs (H100, B100) Valuation-rich, any miss could correct sharply

AMD (AMD) Strong recent momentum, approaching $200 Eyes on MI300 AI chip traction Gaining traction in inference workloads Room to surprise on upside, but still catching up

> Verdict:

Nvidia is already well above $200. The real race is whether AMD can sustain momentum and break through $200 convincingly.

If AMD’s earnings show meaningful MI300 adoption, strong guidance, and AI revenue acceleration, it could test that level soon after the report.

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🏁 How Much Longer Can the AI Giants Run?

The rally in both stocks has been powerful but how long it lasts depends on:

1. Sustained AI Capex from Hyperscalers

If demand holds or grows into 2025, both stocks could see further upside.

2. Execution and Guidance

Nvidia must continue to execute flawlessly; AMD must close the performance gap.

3. Valuation Discipline

High expectations mean any slip (even a small one) could cause a correction.

4. Competition & Regulation

New entrants (e.g. Intel, startups) or geopolitical issues could temper growth.

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📌 Final Thought:

> Short-Term: AMD has upside potential if earnings exceed expectations.

Medium-Term: Nvidia remains dominant, but AMD is catching up.

Long-Term: Both names can run further if they convert AI hype into durable, diversified revenue beyond a single chip cycle.