To The Moon

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 🚨🎢🔥 $COIN from T4 to Turbulence: Options Mechanics Unleashed 🔥🎢🚨

I’m stunned by the precision of this move.

From the euphoric T4 tag at $438.62 on 17Jul25, where the final upside swing target was cleanly hit, to the brutal collapse below $315, Coinbase has moved through every major level like a script written by volatility itself.

This is not random. This is pure mechanics, driven by the unwind of option flows, aggressive IV crush, and the acceleration effect when levels are violated in sequence.

The original upside sequence:

• T1: $350.50

• T2: $367.03

• T3: $380.75

• T4: $438.62

Every one of these was met, and now we’ve traversed below the bottom of the box range, which was defined at $328.75.

I’m looking at the 4H chart, where the breakdown pierced every Keltner and Bollinger band level. Candles have sliced through the entire ribbon cluster. Momentum has flipped fully bearish. On the 1D chart, price just closed at $314.69, directly beneath the orange 55EMA. This aligns with the psychological $315 shelf, reinforcing a breakdown signal that spans both intraday and daily timeframes.

Volume has spiked on this decline; that confirms aggressive unwinding. No support level has held since the T4 tag. This is a classic liquidity flush.

RSI is likely approaching oversold territory, trending near sub-40. MACD shows sustained bearish divergence across both 4H and daily charts. These technicals confirm a momentum reversal rather than a controlled retracement.

The parabolic run from $220 to $438 in 30 days was impressive, but the descent has been even faster. What goes up with options leverage can come down with velocity. Dealer positioning has flipped. Flow to ask has reversed to flow to bid. When this happens at elevated gamma levels, volatility accelerates.

Macro events like Coinbase earnings and the Fed’s July hold decision are now behind us; with those catalysts exhausted, structural fragility is exposed. This is why I believe the move is more than technical. It is a regime shift.

To assess potential reversal zones, I ran the Fibonacci retracement from the full $438.62 high to the $317.44 low. These are the resistance levels to watch if we bounce:

• 23.6% retracement: $410.02

• 38.2% retracement: $392.33

• 50.0% retracement: $378.03

• 61.8% retracement: $363.73

• 78.6% retracement: $343.37

If $COIN can reclaim $328.75 and build toward $343.37, we may start shifting from bearish to neutral. Until then, the path of least resistance is still down.

Key downside targets from here:

• $310: psychological floor and short-term defense line

• $295: volume shelf and prior breakout node

• $271: low-volume gap area that could trigger further liquidation

• $258: Fibonacci support from full July expansion move

From a risk perspective, I’d treat any bounce as a relief rally unless we see decisive reclaim of former support zones. If $310 fails, I’d expect high-velocity selling into $295. That would be a potential inflection area for long setups, but only if volume and structure improve.

Technicals:

• Current price: $315.70

• Breakdown below daily 55EMA and all lower bands

• Volume surge confirms distribution

• RSI likely near sub-40

• MACD confirms continuation

• Resistance: $328.75, $343.37, $378.03

• Support: $310, $295, $271

I’m not positioned here, but this is a textbook case of how option dynamics and gamma mechanics can drive a parabolic move in both directions. Once T4 was hit, gravity and flow mechanics took over.

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