To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (28Jul25)

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US auto loan delinquency rates keep on surging: Subprime auto loan delinquency rates just crossed above 5% for the first time in history. Since 2022, the 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED. Delinquency rates are now above the peak levels recorded in 2008 and 2020. Furthermore, prime auto loan 60-day delinquencies have risen to their highest in 14 years. All while the share of auto loan balances at least 90 days past due hit 5% in Q1 2025, in-line with the 2020 pandemic high. The car market bubble is bursting. - X user The KobeIssi Letter

Apart from banks, rising auto loan delinquencies most affect (from Grok):

• Auto manufacturers (e.g., GM, Ford): Reduced sales from tighter credit and lower demand.

• Dealerships: Fewer financed purchases, inventory pileup.

• Non-bank lenders (e.g., Ally, Credit Acceptance): Higher defaults on subprime loans.

• Used car retailers (e.g., Carvana): A Flood of repossessed vehicles is depressing prices.

• Repossession firms: Surge in workload, but potential oversupply risks. Based on 2025 Fed and industry data.

Americans now spend more on health care than groceries or housing, with health care accounting for approximately 20% of household expenditures, according to the New York Times.

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The US M2 money supply surged +4.5% YoY in June to a record $22.02 trillion. This marks the 20th consecutive monthly increase and the largest increase since July 2022. The surge brings M2 closer to the 2000–2025 average annual growth rate of 6.3%. Additionally, inflation-adjusted M2 rose +1.8% YoY last month. For perspective, US M2 Money Supply was ~$8.46 trillion, or 62% lower, at the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US Dollar's purchasing power is in a perpetual bear market. - X user The KobeIssi Letter

Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft currently account for ~20% of the entire S&P 500. - X user Geiger Capital

Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May, based on the 10 largest U.S. ports. The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier. - TT News

"Retail investors are turning away from AI," per CNBC

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For June 2025: US govt revenue $526 billion US gov interest payments $144 billion. On our $37 trillion debt, we paid 27% of all government revenue in interest payments for the national debt. - X user Wall Street Mav

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Warren Buffett indicator has now officially entered the exosphere. 208% - X user The Great Martis

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The AI BUBBLE may be bigger than the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE: The top 10 stocks' 12-month forward P/E is now 28x, larger than the 25x seen in 2000. Additionally, nearly 40% of the S&P 500 is made up of the 10 largest stocks, the highest share EVER. Truly wild. - X user Global Markets Investor

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