To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 (28Jul25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - another top crossover is completed, which implies an uptrend.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.31, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. We have noted a decline in buying momentum.

The technical analysis is showing a “Strong Buy” rating based on the daily interval.

20 indicators show a “Buy” rating and none with a “Sell” rating.

Candlestick Analysis (taken from Grok):

Short-Term Trend (Next Week, July 28–August 1, 2025): Bearish

• The Evening Star (completed June 22) and Bearish Engulfing (emerging July 23) are strong bearish reversal patterns, indicating the end of the uptrend from 5,345.01 to 6,000.36. The drop to 5,672.33 (-0.33% on July 23) suggests this correction is gaining momentum.

• The Doji (July 22) indicates indecision, but the follow-through Bearish Engulfing confirms selling pressure. The coming week could see further declines unless a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., Morning Star) emerges.

• Prior technical analysis (June 2) highlighted support at 5,796.34 (200 MA) and 5,629.83 (50 MA). The price at 5,672.33 is below the 200 MA, reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook.

Long-Term Trend: Neutral to Bearish

• The long-term bullish trend, supported by the rally to 6,000.36 and the 200 MA as support, has weakened. The Evening Star’s completion and the decline below 5,845.90 (June 16) to 5,672.33 suggest a potential trend reversal or deep correction.

• The bullish patterns from April to June (e.g., Morning Doji Star, Bullish Doji Star) drove the recovery, but the current bearish signals indicate a shift. The long-term trend will remain neutral if the price holds above 5,629.83; a sustained break below this level could turn it bearish.

While I rely largely on the MACD indicator, the recent candlestick patterns have suggested some bearish pressure. It is possible for the S&P 500 index to range. We can expect some profit-taking. Events like Q2 earnings, Core PCE data and FOMC interest rate decision should add to the volatility. With the above in mind, the S&P 500 can either climb or range sideways. However, we should not rule out some correction either.

@TigerStars

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