What does America’s real estate say about Recession?
What America’s real estate says about the Recession
America's Largest Home Builder, DR Horton, just reported a 24% decline in net income. Less revenue, less income and revised guidance incoming at 8:30 Eastern - X user Mr Awsumb
“So, if you go back to January of 2000, and where a home should be based on just inflation over the last 25 years, homes are overvalued. Home prices nationwide need to come down about 29 to 30%.” - Nick Rizzolo / Fox News
Austin, TX home values have contracted 3 years in a row. -13.9% in 2023 -4.2% in 2024 -5.4% in 2025. Note that this is the biggest housing correction Austin has experienced in the last 25+ years. Even bigger than what occurred in the GFC. - X user Nick Gerli
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Home builders have 9.8 months of supply on their lots. Has only happened 6 other times in U.S. history. 5 times it led to a recession. - X user Nick Gerli
The American Real Estate cannot be the only indicator used for recession. We need to combine the following:
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Employment data: Rising unemployment would amplify housing market weakness.
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Consumer confidence: Further declines could reduce demand further, as noted by D.R. Horton’s CEO.
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Federal Reserve policy: Rate cuts could ease pressure, while sustained high rates might exacerbate corrections.
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Regional trends: If corrections spread beyond Texas and Florida, recession risks would rise.
Real Estate cannot be the only indicator we look at for recession. Let us continue to monitor the economy using multiple references so that we can establish a more wholesome view of this.
Some signs should command our attention. Let us monitor closely and consider some hedging, away from the real estate industry. Here is wishing all success in the coming weeks.
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- jazzyxx·2025-07-28TOPIt's wise to consider multiple indicators.1Report