To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ 🚗🌐📊 Uber: where platform scale meets global autonomy ambition 📊🌐🚗

I’m extremely confident that Uber is entering its most strategically important chapter yet; one where mobility, autonomy, delivery, and data converge into a multi-platform flywheel with asymmetric upside.

Uber isn’t just evolving, it’s consolidating dominance while tactically expanding across verticals most investors continue to underestimate. I’m watching as it methodically deepens its moat, not by throwing capital blindly, but by allocating it with surgical precision across high-margin levers like advertising, subscriptions, and autonomy partnerships.

I’m unequivocally optimistic about Uber’s new Women Preferences initiative. Quietly transformative, this program directly addresses the long-standing safety concern haunting the ride-hailing industry. By empowering female riders and drivers in the U.S. to choose gender-matched trips, after more than 100 million such rides globally since its 2019 debut, Uber isn’t just expanding user experience; it’s fortifying brand trust and unlocking new growth demographics. I’m watching this roll out in Los Angeles, Detroit, and San Francisco as a litmus test for what could become a global default option, especially in culturally sensitive regions.

On the financial side, Uber’s flywheel is spinning harder than ever. I’m tracking gross bookings reaching $86B in mobility and $77B in delivery as of Mar25. That’s a staggering 214.6% LTM growth in delivery and 156.6% in mobility over just four years. This isn’t COVID-recovery fluff, it’s structural expansion. Mobility CAGR sits at 23.3%, while delivery’s compounding at 29%, both well above sector averages. Meanwhile, total ARR has reached $82B, with adjusted EBITDA growing 45% YoY in Q1 2025 to $3.1B, pushing margin to 3.7%.

I’m tactically positioned to exploit this valuation asymmetry. Despite trading near all-time highs, Uber is still below its historical median P/FCF of 27.74, currently hovering around 24.5. This implies further rerating potential if FCF execution continues on track. With consensus projecting $12B FCF by 2027, the stock could comfortably support a $324B valuation, nearly double from today.

Technically, I’m monitoring key inflection points. The weekly chart shows resistance rejection near $97.72 with harmonic butterfly confluence at $94.53 and $93.34. This aligns with MA5 overhead ($92.44) and current RSI cooling off from 60+ territory. I’m watching for a pullback toward the $83–$81.08 region for reentry, aligning with the Fib 0.382 and XA 0.786 levels. If we breach $73.99 (Fib 0.618), I’ll reassess the structural trend.

What excites me structurally is Uber’s strategic pivot to own the AV operating layer. I’m watching them position as the distribution backbone for dozens of AV players: Waymo, Nuro, Pony.ai, Baidu Apollo, and NVIDIA among them. The logic is simple. While others build hardware and AI brains, Uber monetizes the rider side through scale, UX, and geographic penetration. Cost per mile for human drivers sits around $2; once autonomous rides fall below that, Uber’s AV flywheel kicks into a $1T TAM. That’s not theory, it’s product-market inevitability.

I’m especially intrigued by Uber’s $300M Lucid robotaxi investment. Deploying 20,000 vehicles over six years equates to a $15K per-unit cost. That’s elegant capital efficiency, less than a single AV R&D center’s annual burn. The first Lucid-Nuro prototypes are already testing in Las Vegas. This isn’t just forward-looking, it’s operational.

Uber’s advertising engine is another sleeping giant. I’m watching how they’re converting transit time into monetized attention. By layering ads onto routes, destinations, and Uber Eats checkouts, they’re effectively becoming a movement-powered media platform. $3.7B in ad revenue is expected by 2027. And because it’s high-margin, it will disproportionately expand EBITDA.

Uber One may quietly be its strongest retention moat. Growing from 12M members in 2022 to 30M in 2024, with 5M added in Q4 alone, it links delivery and rides, reducing churn and cementing ecosystem loyalty. 60% penetration among Eats users is a fortress-level moat that only builds with time.

I’m closely following how Serve Robotics fits into this puzzle. While currently speculative, it remains deeply tied to Uber Eats and has already deployed 350 delivery robots, with 2,000 more planned by year-end. If Serve hits its $84M 2027 revenue projection and gets valued at 20x forward sales, it could balloon from a $604M market cap to $1.7B. It’s not core to Uber’s thesis yet, but it could soon be a narrative enhancer.

And then there’s global reach. I’m constantly impressed that Uber dominates in 108 of 171 countries, often fending off deep-pocketed regional players without resorting to margin-killing incentives. That’s execution at scale, and it gives Uber the pricing and partnership leverage that no other mobility platform can match.

I’m here for the next wave of re-rating. Not because the business is changing, but because the market is finally catching up to what Uber has already built: an omnipresent mobility utility wrapped in a software-driven ecosystem, with margin optionality, platform extensions, and first-party data as strategic weapons.

This isn’t just a trade; it’s the story of platform leverage colliding with macro reinvention. The risk-reward skews decisively toward upside.

Are you watching Uber’s pivot into AV distribution and global scale as closely as I am?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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