To The Moon

My Investing Muse (14Jul25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Intel layoffs 2025: Thousands of jobs cut as chipmaker begins restructuring – Oregon Live

• Dow to close three European chemical plants, cut 800 jobs | Reuters

There have been 371 corporate bankruptcies year-to-date, the most in 15 YEARS. Among sectors, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary have been the most hit with 58 and 49 filings, respectively. Bankruptcies are at recession levels. – X user Global Markets Investor

The US job numbers will likely be REVISED DOWN by nearly 800,000 for the 9 months ending December 2024, according to QCEW data. This means non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month during this period. – X user Global Markets Investor

Job postings on Indeed dropped to their lowest since February 2021. They are now near the pre-2020 Crisis levels. Job postings have declined for 3.5 years. Obviously, this does not include ghost postings. US hiring is dismal. – X user Global Markets Investor

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

Margin call & Institutional investors are dumping

The following news extract shows an increasing number of investors who lean on credit (leverage). There is news that shows that institutional investors are exiting the market, as retail investors are driving the recent market rally.

Investors are now buying stocks on margin at levels never seen before in history. – Barchart.

Professional investors are DUMPING US stocks: Institutional investors sold $2.3 BILLION in US equities last week. They have now sold in 8 out of the last 9 weeks. While institutions have been dumping, retail investors are still buying. – X user Global Markets Investor

My final thoughts

The market should see some volatility with the CPI news. Though PCE is the preferred inflation reference (for the Federal Reserve), it would lend some reference and influence on how interest rate decisions can be made.

President Trump’s latest tariffs have been released, and there has been a mixed response from the various countries. This tax is usually borne by the importer of the goods into America. While the importer can “push” the supplier to take on some of the costs, we can expect most of the tariffs to be “passed on” to the American consumers. We will see how the recent tariffs affect the inflation (CPI).

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$