To The Moon

$Innoviz Technologies Ltd.(INVZ)$ $Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$ $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$ 🚗📡💥 $INVZ Poised for a Full-Blown Tactical Breakout 💥📡🚗

10Jul25, 🇳🇿NZST

I’m doubling down on $INVZ this week. After yesterday’s +11.9% close at $1.60 and another +5% post-market push to $1.68, I’m treating this as structural strength, not noise. This isn’t just momentum, it’s validation. With OEM integration, product expansion, and real operational scale, Innoviz is shifting from a speculative tech play into a legitimate volume supplier.

🛠 Operational Breakthrough: InnovizTwo Hits Mass Production

On 09Jul25, Innoviz completed its first commercial shipment of InnovizTwo LiDAR units through Fabrinet’s high-volume production line. This milestone is more than symbolic; it proves Innoviz has achieved what most LiDAR peers have struggled with, transferring complex optical sensing technology to an automotive-grade manufacturing partner with scale and precision.

Fabrinet brings global credibility as a contract manufacturer trusted for its ability to produce highly sensitive optical components at scale. This shift confirms that Innoviz has cleared knowledge transfer, quality control, and volume production readiness, all critical barriers in the transition from prototype to product.

In a sector where many competitors have stumbled trying to ramp volume, Innoviz is now operationally positioned to deliver at scale. OEMs don’t buy from dreamers; they buy from partners with tier-1 supply assurance. With Fabrinet’s footprint across the US and Asia, Innoviz now has geographic diversification, regional security, and a fully validated build chain, exactly what global automakers need.

This production milestone transforms Innoviz from a R&D-heavy tech developer into a volume-grade supplier. That shift dramatically enhances its valuation potential.

🤝 OEM Collaboration: Level 3 Platform Confirmed

Innoviz also confirmed a collaboration with a top-5 global OEM to support a Level 3 autonomous system for SOP in 2027. Hundreds of units are already scheduled for 2025 delivery. This announcement drove a +15% spike in shares, and it anchors the production narrative with real commercial pull.

📡 Beyond Automotive: InnovizSMART Opens New Markets

On 10Jun25, Innoviz launched InnovizSMART, a 400 m long-range LiDAR system for smart cities, aerial mobility, robotics, and intelligent traffic applications. Built on automotive-grade specs and powered by PoE, this sensor broadens the TAM significantly while maintaining cost discipline.

🤖 AI Safety: Cogniteam Partnership

Through a strategic partnership with Cogniteam, Innoviz is embedding real-time AI analytics into its LiDAR stack, enhancing use cases across defence, robotics, and high-trust autonomy. Most traders are missing this layer, but it directly aligns with NVIDIA’s multi-modal AI deployment strategy, which strengthens Innoviz’s position within the DRIVE ecosystem.

✅ Nasdaq Compliance Restored

Earlier this year, Innoviz regained Nasdaq compliance by restoring its minimum bid-price threshold. This removed a key institutional overhang and signaled management’s confidence in long-term value creation.

📊 Financials: Execution Is the New Narrative

• Quarterly revenue: $24.27M

• TTM revenue growth: +28.5%

• Enterprise value: ~$276.77M

• P/S: 11.23, P/B: 3.45

• Debt: Low, with a strong current ratio

While 3-year revenue growth has slowed, Innoviz is no longer pre-revenue. It’s generating consistent topline, shifting operating model efficiencies, and widening its monetisation pathways.

📈 Technicals: Trend Break Confirmed

We’ve broken above the yearly value area high at $1.58 on 21.9M volume and held $1.68 post-market. I’m watching:

• Support: $1.15–1.25

• Retest zone: $1.58

• Resistance: $1.74, then $1.95–2.20

• Bullish target: $3.33

Momentum confirms: RSI(6) at 84.42, MACD rising, MA stack bullishly aligned.

🔥 Options Flow and Short Data

• Jul18 $1.50 calls surged +150%

• Aug15 $2.00 calls up +33%

• IV ~182% on short-dated calls

• Short interest: 23.5M shares, 12.35% of float, 1.7 days to cover

This setup has fuel. If $1.58 holds, I expect a grind higher with real squeeze potential.

🔍 Peer Comparison: $INVZ vs $LAZR vs $AEVA

• $INVZ: EV $277M, revenue $24M, OEM in-hand, manufacturing live

• $LAZR: EV $1.2B, revenue $15M, still scaling, higher P/S

• $AEVA: EV $410M, revenue $9M, pre-integration phase

Innoviz is the only player in this group that has hit true production milestones while expanding both product scope and institutional trust.

📌 Bear Case and Invalidation

If $1.58 fails and we drop under $1.49 with weak volume, I’ll reassess on a pullback to the $1.25 demand zone. A breakdown under $1.15 invalidates the bullish thesis short-term.

🎯 Analyst View

Roth Capital sees upside toward $4.50 based on OEM pipeline visibility and NVIDIA ecosystem momentum. If volume ramps flow through as expected, a move to $6+ over 12–18 months is well within reason.

🚀 Sector Rotation: The Capital Is Moving

On 09Jul25:

• SoundHound, Recursion: +11%

• WeRide: +6%

• Innoviz, NNOX: +4%

• Aurora, Serve: +2%

As capital rotates out of compute-heavy plays like $APLD and $CORE, traders are rediscovering infrastructure-layer enablers with asymmetric upside. Innoviz fits that shift perfectly.

📌 Watchlist Next Week

• Price action at $1.74, does it break and hold on volume?

• Does $1.58 become new demand base?

• Aug OI building at $2.00 and $2.50

• Institutional 13F activity and NVIDIA newsflow

• Further OEM disclosures in earnings calls

📣 Final Take

Innoviz is no longer just promising LiDAR, it’s producing it. The Fabrinet milestone sets it apart in an industry littered with production delays. OEMs now have a volume-ready supplier with multi-region redundancy, a real tech stack, and both auto and non-auto revenue potential.

Add in AI integration, Nasdaq compliance, and credible options flow, and this is the asymmetric AV bet I want to be positioned in, early, not late.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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