SPY - Will a test of the 20DMA be avoided?

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : Over the last year, the combination of an overbought RSI and price action at the upper Bollinger Band has consistently led to periods of consolidation, as highlighted on the chart.

The key question now is: will this time be different, and will a test of the 20DMA be avoided?

History suggests the current consolidation is part of a healthy reset as highlighted, as the price is methodically building a new volume shelf (indicated by the black arrow) which could act as a new support base.

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