To The Moon

$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🤖🚀💥 Nebius Group ($NBIS): The High-Voltage Outlier Poised to Multiply Your Investment 🎯⚡🔥

💡 If I Had $1M and One Shot, I’d Put It All Here

I wouldn’t drip-feed $1M into an index fund and call it conviction. I’d aim for real asymmetry, a high-octane outlier with exponential upside. That play, right now, is Nebius Group ($NBIS). With tariffs landing, semis weakening, and capital flows rotating, $NBIS stands alone as the asymmetric standout that could turn a million into four. Here’s why I’m betting it outruns $QQQ and $NVDA.

📉 $QQQ: Safe until it isn’t

Three identical peak-to-trough swings keep snapping back to the same rising trendline near $459 to $460. After tagging $556.22, price looks stretched. A 15 to 18% correction would match past structure. A 10% global tariff hits 100+ countries on 09 July, right into the weakest seasonal window for tech. Diversification can blunt the downside, but it limits upside. That’s not the trade I want.

🔻 $NVDA: Macro pressure meets cycle fatigue

The intermediate cycle that began on 07 April is losing steam:

• Rising wedge still forming

• RSI divergence on both 4 h and daily

• MACD histogram compressing

• July to August is historically a weak stretch for semis

NVDA’s Blackwell rollout is bullish long term, but the technical setup suggests consolidation, not expansion. Add export controls and potential GPU regulation, and I’m rotating out.

🌐 Tariffs? $NBIS Is Built to Withstand

A 10% tariff kicks in globally, but semiconductors and GPUs are exempt under Executive Order 14257. $NBIS’s H100 and Blackwell supply is pre-secured. With custom servers, vertical integration, and hyperscaler partnerships, its margins remain untouched. While $QQQ and $NVDA flinch, $NBIS keeps scaling.

📈 Technical Setup: Spring-Loaded

$NBIS is coiling just under $55, sitting on the 20-day EMA at $48. The chart’s as tight as a compressed spring.

• RSI is 55 and turning up

• MACD flipped bullish

• Bollinger Bands narrowing fast

• Options flow shows aggressive call buying at $50 and $55

• Put-call ratio at 0.8, and short interest sits at 6.97% with 3.2 days to cover

If the coil breaks, we could see a swift run to $60 to $70, and I’m positioned for it.

🛠️ What Sets $NBIS Apart

1. Data centres: 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, and 🇮🇸 Iceland already live. 🇺🇸 Kansas City, New Jersey, and 🇬🇧 UK pushes are on track for 1 GW by 2027

2. Hardware: Custom GPU servers use 20% less energy. Nebius rents H100s at $1.50/hr vs $3.00/hr from AWS

3. Cloud stack: Tracto.ai and AI Studio give Nebius a backend edge others can’t match

4. AI talent: ~400 engineers, most from Yandex Cloud; this isn’t a team of generalists, they’re ex-hyperscaler elite

5. Vertical integration: They control design, supply, and deployment, with zero dependency on third-party clouds

📰 Recent Developments

• $55.3M Q1 25 revenue (+385% YoY)

• FY24 revenue: $117.5M (+462% YoY)

• April 25 ARR: $310M

• FY25 guidance: $250M to $300M revenue

• Target ARR by Dec 25: $750M to $1B

• New 200 MW buildout in Germany and Spain announced with major European telecom

• IDC forecasts $500B+ global AI spend by 2027; $NBIS is positioning to own a chunk

📦 Under-the-Radar Growth Engines

• Avride: 200K+ autonomous deliveries with Uber and Grubhub

• Toloka AI: Used by Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Shopify, and backed by Bezos

• TripleTen: Ed-tech platform now at $27M ARR

• ClickHouse stake: 28% ownership now worth $1.68B after its $6B Series C

💼 Institutional Confidence

Coatue added 1.2M shares. Ark Invest loaded 650K more. Tiger Global initiated with 400K

Backing includes:

• $700M raise from Nvidia, Accel, and Bezos Expeditions

• $1B convertible from Morgan Stanley

This buildout is fully funded and validated by the smartest capital on the Street

📊 Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman Sachs raised target from $60 to $75

• Morgan Stanley sits at $80

• Average consensus target: $72, a 50% upside from $48

🌍 Macro Context

• Q2 25 US GDP: 2.5%

• Inflation: 3.2% and cooling

• Fed expected to hold through Q4 25

• SOX Index up 25% YTD

Rate stability and AI infrastructure demand make now the moment for high-beta growth

📊 Momentum Metrics

• 12-week Z-score: +2.8 (vs peer basket at +1.1)

• Weekly volatility: 13%, top quartile among US growth stocks

• Chart compression and capital flow = imminent breakout

• 🎯 Targeting $60 to $70 near term

🎯📊 Profit Scenarios: Turning $1M into Alpha

I’ve modelled two entry zones ~ $48 for early positioning and $50 for confirmation buyers. Here’s the asymmetric payoff potential:

🎯 Entry at $48

• Target $60 → +$250,000 (+25%)

• Target $70 → +$458,333 (+45.8%)

• Target $100 → +$1,083,333 (+108%)

🎯 Entry at $50

• Target $60 → +$200,000 (+20%)

• Target $70 → +$400,000 (+40%)

• Target $100 → +$1,000,000 (+100%)

This isn’t about collecting safe yield. This is a high-voltage setup where the upside skews dramatically in your favour — and with the 20-day EMA base and options flow confirmation, I’m not sitting this one out.

🔭 What I’m Watching

1. 09 Jul tariff rollout: $NBIS should hold strong

2. August ARR update: needs to hit $600M+

3. Q3 UK data centre launch: 150 MW online

4. September Fed meeting

5. Short float rising above 8%: potential squeeze

6. Nvidia Blackwell rollout cadence

🎯 Trade Plan

• Entry: long at $48

• Add: near $46 if EMA coil holds

• Scale: above $55 on breakout

• Stop-loss: below $43

• Target: $100+ if Q4 ARR clears $800M

💥 Conclusion: The Asymmetry Trade I’m Taking

$QQQ is predictable, but capped. $NVDA is powerful, but cooling. $NBIS is the only setup offering explosive upside, institutional conviction, and technical perfection all at once. It’s immune to tariffs, backed by Nvidia, and sitting on infrastructure no one else in AI has scaled this fast.

The chart’s ready. The capital is there. The time is now. While the rest rotate, I’m riding $NBIS to new highs! 

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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