To The Moon

$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $Centene(CNC)$ 🚀⚡🎯 Oscar’s Pulse Check, Mispriced Lifeline 🎯⚡🚀

⚡🚀🤖 Prelude

03Jul25, 🇳🇿NZ Time

A week ago Oscar Health, $OSCR, sat on every momentum screen. Today it trades at $16.82 after a 17.7 % flush, even though the business just printed its third straight profit and still carries zero Medicaid exposure. That disconnect is the very edge we hunt!

📰 Capitulation or Catalyst

• Barclays slapped an Underweight and algo funds stampeded.

• Short interest rocketed to 29.75 M shares, 16 % of float, up 38 % month on month.

• Yet revenue growth, net income, and member satisfaction haven’t skipped a beat.

📉 Technical Test, Right Now

• $17.30, gold Fibonacci midpoint, must hold.

• $16.77, harmonic support, is the fail-safe, below that, bids thin fast.

• $18.45, $19.82, and $20.63 are the ladders back to bullish control.

• Today’s low tagged $16.69 and the rising 55-week EMA, putting bulls on the spot.

🤖 The Flywheel That Legacy Insurers Can’t Copy

Oscar’s cloud-native stack lets members: enrol in 5 min, message a Care Guide and nurse 24 / 7, book $0 virtual visits, track claims live. Micro-nudges curb chronic flares before they become six-figure surgeries.

• Net Promoter Score: 66 (legacy peers low-40s)

• Medical Loss Ratio: 75.4 % (UnitedHealth 85.5 %, Cigna 87.9 %)

• SG&A: 15.8 %, already closing on the 16 % 2027 target

• Revenue: $391 M to $9.1 B in five years, now profitable

🎯 Total Addressable Market, Still Widening

21 M ACA members + 75 M ICHRA-eligible workers = 96 M lives, ≈ $720 B premium pool. Even if enhanced subsidies vanish, the pool shrinks only about 7 M. 26 % of Q1 growth already came from employer plans, insulated from subsidy politics.

🏦 Fortress Balance Sheet

• Equity $1.0 B, Cash $1.5 B, Debt $373 M

• $774 M above statutory surplus, dry powder for clinics, a PBM, or employer onboarding

• Mark Bertolini, ex-Aetna CEO, was hired to land Fortune-500 clients and spearhead vertical integration.

🧠 Valuation Frames the Upside

Management guides to 20 % revenue CAGR and $2.25 EPS by 2027. Run harsh haircuts:

• Subsidies stay (60 % odds) → $2.25 EPS, 15–20 × = $34–$45, fair value $30 after a 10 % discount.

• Subsidies lapse (30 % odds) → $1.50 EPS, 15 × = $24, still 43 % above last print.

• ACA repeal (10 % odds) → sub-$5 floor thanks to surplus cash.

🚀 Trade Blueprint

Accumulation: $17.30–$16.80

Risk toggle: hard stop under $16.60

Trigger: weekly close ≥ $18.45 ignites squeeze toward $20.63

Options: Aug $20 calls provide cheap convexity while IV sits mid-range.

🛡 Risk Lens

Policy theatrics in Washington, execution on large-employer pipeline, and timing on vertical integration. Oscar controls none of them, yet its cash buffer softens every blow.

💥 Conclusion

This isn’t a meme bounce, it’s a structural mis-pricing. Oscar owns the happiest members, the leanest loss ratio, and the fattest cash cushion in a trillion-dollar sector that still runs on fax machines. The market just handed us a 32 % discount on conservative fair value because it confused Oscar with Medicaid-heavy peers. I’m buying where fear is loud and the maths is louder,  first for a technical snap-back, then for a multi-year compounding run at the heart of US healthcare.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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