To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ 🤖🚨⚡ Trust Bank Turbocharge, Fibonacci Reload, Stablecoin Supercycle ⚡🚨🤖

🔥 Prelude

03 Jul 25, 🇳🇿 NZST ~ Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) just handed disciplined traders a 0.618 Fibonacci retest at $171.71 while applying for a national trust charter. Jerome Powell told Congress last week that “properly regulated stablecoins are a form of money and a positive development,” setting a supportive policy tone. On the day Circle filed, the stock flipped from red to a +6.2 % intraday burst before settling higher, a clear read on how fast the tape can reprice this story.  

🎯 Strategic Entry Point: Fibonacci Meets Banking Ambition

Price slid from the $298 post IPO high to $171.71, bounced to $188.50, and volume eased in classic base building fashion. The daily 9 EMA is curling toward the 21 EMA; I’ll add once a close above $200 confirms momentum. Visible range shows heavy supply at $220 to $230; a decisive break unlocks $250, then the prior high.  

📰 Earnings Preview (Q2 25, report window 28 Aug 25)

Street consensus sits at $0.34 EPS on $645 M revenue, up 26 % YoY. I model $0.38 EPS on $670 M because Circle kept USDC reserves in 5.3 % Treasuries while reverse repo balances drained. One 25 bp Fed cut slices about $130 M annualised, so every dot plot matters.

🗞️ Last Quarter Recap (Q1 25)

Revenue hit $1.67 B, +116 % YoY, net profit $267 M with a 16 % margin despite IPO costs, operating cash flow $472 M, zero debt, and $61.9 B USDC reserves. Management signalled 25 % to 30 % revenue CAGR once the trust bank licence goes live.

🚨 Post Earnings Price Behaviour

After the Q4 24 beat, shares spiked 42 % and faded 18 % as early holders locked gains. I expect similar whipsaws unless the next call pins down charter timing, GENIUS Act alignment, or EU MiCA passporting.

⚡ Forward Guidance

Circle targets a 40 % EPS CAGR through 2028 with mid 20 % operating margins at scale. My base trims revenue CAGR to 22 %, still giving a $244 fair value if policy rates stay elevated.

💥 Key Drivers and Risks

Drivers: OCC charter approval, MiCA rollout, network effects from USDC integrations, prolonged higher rate backdrop.

Risks: rapid Fed easing, competition from PayPal USD or bank issued tokens, valuation at 78 × FY 26 EPS.

🌟 Analyst Targets and Hedge-Fund Flow

• JPMorgan $80 neutral, valuation “rich” 

• Barclays $215, Bernstein $230, Canaccord $247, Street average $181

• Seaport paragraph verbatim:

“Seaport Research initiated coverage of Circle (CRCL) with a Buy rating and $235 price target, telling investors that the firm views Circle as “a top-tier crypto ‘disruptor’ with a sizeable future opportunity.” Seaport expects global adoption of stablecoins such as USDC, Circle’s flagship product, to grow rapidly from here on the back of an improving regulatory climate, adding that it sees the stablecoin “market cap” growing from roughly $260 B today to potentially reach $2 T over the longer term. The firm sees Circle generating annual revenue growth of 25 % to 30 % as this occurs, with the ability to drive operating leverage as it scales further, and believes shares merit “a premium valuation.”” 

• ARK trimmed 609 K shares last week while Tiger Global opened a 1.2 M share starter; early cycle passing of the baton. 

🚀 Technical Landscape

Support at $190 then $172. Resistance at $200 pivot, $220 to $230 supply shelf, $250 breakout, $298 ATH. The two hour chart is carving a contracting wedge; a surge through $240 measures to $300. Five day RSI at 46 is reloading for a bull swing.

✅ Short Interest Pulse

Short interest stands at 3.72 M shares, 2.8 % of float, with 0.12 Days to Cover. Limited powder for bears means positive news can trigger a squeeze.

🗞️ Options Flow and Dealer Gamma

Open interest totals 274 K contracts, put call ratio 0.98. Dealers carry mild negative gamma from $190 to $210; a settle above $210 forces them long, adding fuel.

🔥 Strategic Catalysts

• OCC charter decision window late Q3 25 

• GENIUS Act passage formalising reserve standards

• USDC Treasury API launch to Fortune 500 treasurers in September

• MiCA passporting across the EU

• Custody tech acquisition hinted during the IPO roadshow

• Q2 earnings on 28 Aug 25

💥 Valuation Snapshot

At $188, CRCL trades 21 × FY 26 sales, 78 × FY 26 EPS, PEG 1.4 on a 56 % EPS CAGR backdrop. The fortress balance sheet and regulatory moat justify paying up in my view.

🎯 Watchlist Levels and Metrics

Price: protect $190, add above $210, trim near $280 to $300

Macro: July CPI, Fed minutes, stablecoin legislation progress

On-chain: USDC supply pushing beyond 62 B signals re acceleration

Options: monitor call buildup at $220 strikes or higher

🌟 Conclusion

I’m accumulating between $185 and $195, pyramiding on a decisive $210 break, and harvesting gains near $300 unless macro shocks intervene. The trust bank licence could vault Circle from speculative multiple to cash rich infrastructure cornerstone. The market still values $CRCL as a hyped stablecoin play, yet regulated network effects never come cheap. Volatility is the toll, the asymmetric payoff keeps me firmly in.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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