To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $T-REX 2X INVERSE TESLA DAILY TARGET ETF(TSLZ)$ $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ 🥊🥊🥊

02Jul25, 🇳🇿NZST 

Tuesday’s headline dip knocked $TSLA to an intraday $293.21 low after President Trump said he might “take a look” at deporting Elon Musk. The sound bite rattled traders, yet denaturalising a US citizen requires a rare federal court victory for fraud or treason. History averages fewer than five such cases a year, so I see a discounted entry, not an existential threat.   

🤖🚀⚡ Deportation Panic, Deep-Value Pivot, Why I’m Reloading $TSLA at $273 ⚡🚀🤖

📊 Chart Structure I Trust

I anchor volume to the 2022 capitulation low. The point of control sits at $274, the value area high at $273. Those rails launched a 190 % sprint to $287 in 2023 and a 277 % surge to $485 in 2024, and we have traced two corrective legs for 2025. Unless we close a week under $269, the rising wedge that guided every rally since 2023 still points higher. Two price vacuums remain, $320-$330 then $339-$358. Reclaim $320, and history says the first gap fills fast. The 4 h RSI just bounced from oversold while MACD turns up from the zero line. 

🔄 Options Flow and Short Fuel

Roughly 60 M shares are short, about 11 % of float, leaving bears more than 11 days to cover at current volume. Dealer gamma flips positive above $305, and call walls cluster at $330, $350, and the cult-like $600 strikes. A push through $320 forces hedging buys and often sparks a summer squeeze.

🌍 Macro Tail-Wind

Moody’s cut the US sovereign rating to Aa1 on 16 May, jolting real yields . Every downgrade since 2011 has been followed by easier Fed policy inside two quarters. Add 64 global rate cuts so far this year and the cost of capital for EV buyers is falling, not rising. 

💸 Fundamentals Beneath the Noise

Reuters polls project 355 K – 394 K Q2 deliveries, down roughly 12 % YoY, yet the Street still models about $41 B revenue on 20 % gross margin, helped by $2 B regulatory-credit profit. Shanghai remains Tesla’s margin king even as BYD and Xiaomi nibble share. Energy storage added another $2 B gross profit last quarter, a cushion the bears skip. 

🤖 Autonomy and Robotics Optionality

Robotaxi rides launched in Austin on 22 Jun at a flat $4.20 fare. Ark Invest tags that stream at up to $75 B revenue by 2030. Meanwhile, Optimus humanoid robots are already moving pallets in Fremont, and management targets 1 M units annually by 2026. Markets still price almost none of this upside.  

🏦 Institutional Heat Map

Q1 13F filings show Millennium, Bridgewater, and Coatue added stakes while UBS trimmed. Analyst targets are split, Wedbush $425, Morgan Stanley $400, JPMorgan $180, leaving a consensus near $295, classic fear-and-FOMO dispersion.

🧭 Scenario Lens

• Bull 55 % $273 holds, daily close over $320 fills the gap to $350, then $380 by October.

• Base 30 % Price coils $273-$330 until earnings, ends the year near $340.

• Bear 15 % Weekly settle under $269 breaks wedge support, price hunts $249 or $214 volume nodes.

📅 Key Dates

10 Jul Q2 deliveries, any print above 400 K squeezes shorts.

17 Jul US CPI, a sub-3 % YoY read eases real yields.

23 Jul Earnings call, watch for FSD licensing, Model Q timing, margin guide.

Rolling Dealer gamma walls at $330, $350, $600.

🎯 My Playbook

I’m long from $288, added at $281, and keep a hard stop on a weekly close below $269. For torque I hold September $330-$380 call spreads funded by August $240 cash-secured puts yielding about 4.5 %. Long-term holders can scale equity every $10 below $300 while harvesting premium on $260 and $240 put strikes.

🏁 Bottom Line

Deporting Musk is legally improbable, the chart’s support at $273 has survived three years, and autonomy revenue is only beginning to surface. Unless $269 collapses, every dip into the high-$280s looks like a high-conviction reload. I’m positioned for a third-wave run toward $380 and, on stretch targets, last year’s $485 peak.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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