Mag 7 Updates: Time for Apple to Catch Up?
Despite $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recently hitting new highs, a new report from Bank of America reveals signs of accelerated selling quietly emerging in the U.S. stock market. Last week saw the largest net outflows in nearly 10 weeks.
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New Highs, but Weak Momentum?
Bank of America strategist noted that the bank’s clients were net sellers overall last week—marking the first time this trend has appeared in three weeks. Institutional investors led the selling, with hedge funds cutting positions for the second straight week, and retail investors also posted their first net outflows in six weeks.
Plus, Trump responded that he would not push the tariff pause beyond July 9. Following his remarks, major U.S. stock indexes turned lower, with the S&P 500 resuming its decline.
However, from a seasonal perspective:
July is the month of the Nasdaq. Going back 10 years, only 2024 posted a negative return. Average return was +2.56% on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
Sector Rotation: Which Stocks Will Play Catch-Up?
Funds are pulling out of tech stocks, with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ leading the decline, while investors are shifting toward defensive sectors like healthcare. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ surged 4.5%, driving the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ higher, and $Amgen(AMGN)$ , $Merck(MRK)$ , and $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$ also rallied, becoming standout performers in the market.
Interestingly, during yesterday’s tech pullback, $Apple(AAPL)$ stood out with a strong performance, breaking above its 50-day moving average.
Apple has been in talks with both companies about adopting their large language models and has requested customized versions trained to be compatible with Apple’s cloud infrastructure for testing.
Mag 7 rebound! Compare to May level, who stands out, who lags behind?
Looking back at the performance of the Magnificent 7 in May, only Meta and Microsoft were positive YTD. As of yesterday, only Tesla, Apple, and Google remain in the red YTD—Tesla is the worst performer, down 25% for the year, followed by Apple at -17.01%.
Do you believe in sector rotation? Are you betting on defensive names or expecting Apple to catch up?
With Apple’s forward P/E now close to Meta’s, which would you choose?
Are you bullish on July performance?
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I do believe in sector rotation, and the recent move into healthcare confirms that. UnitedHealth and Merck are showing strength, while some big tech names like Nvidia and Microsoft face pressure. That said, Apple stood out during the tech dip and is gaining momentum. With its focus on AI integration and a breakout above the 50-day moving average, I think Apple has strong catch-up potential.
I remain cautiously bullish on July, especially with the Nasdaq’s strong seasonal track record. While trimming positions in overbought names, I’m still holding quality tech like Apple.
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此外，特朗普迴應稱，他不會推動7月9日之後暫停關稅.在他的講話之後，美國主要股指轉跌，標普500重拾跌勢。
有趣的是，在昨天的科技股回調期間，$蘋果(AAPL)$以強勁的表現脫穎而出，突破50日均線。
Still I choose VOO 😁
I expect Apple to catch up especially with the expected rate cuts later in the year which is usually beneficial for technology sector.
Between meta and apple, I would still choose apple as the ecosystem is sticky and there are many die hard fans, including me. Meta has yet to proven its AI potential so I would prefer to watch where the company is heading and its prospects.
July would be a tricky month with trump mentioning that he would not extend the deadline for tariffs reviews. This will again spark the concern for recession. I am bearish for July performance as many consumers will hold on to their cash instead of spending. It wil be a volatile month.
如果让我选，我目前会更偏向押注一些防守型的优质名字，至少抗跌性更强，特别是在美联储政策还没完全明朗的情况下。至于苹果，虽然这两季的表现有点拖后腿，但Vision Pro、AI整合（Apple Intelligence）慢慢开始发酵，股价也开始有点“补涨”的意味。你说它有没有可能赶上Meta？我觉得不是没有机会。
讲到估值，现在苹果的远期市盈率大约跟Meta差不多，落在28倍左右。但它的增长性确实不如Meta，所以如果单从“成长弹性”来讲，我可能会选Meta；但如果你是保守型投资者，希望稳稳拿着不太担心波动，苹果依然是最稳的科技股之一。
至于7月表现，我是偏乐观的。历史上7月向来是强势月份，加上财报季即将启动，可能会出现不错的结构性机会。关键看你站在哪一边了。