To The Moon

Earnings Revisions Are More Than Just Gold Dust

I’ve seen plenty of gold rallies underpinned by little more than glitter and guesswork, but Newmont’s current earnings momentum is something else entirely. Analysts aren’t just getting bullish because gold’s holding firm above $3,300—they’re responding to robust, tangible improvements in the business

Earnings power, precision-built — not just another glittery surge

Earnings per share now sit at $4.39 on a trailing twelve-month basis, with a forward P/E of just 9.2. Crucially, this isn’t being driven solely by price strength. Management is integrating the Newcrest acquisition ahead of schedule, giving the company an enviable tier-one asset base across Australia and Papua New Guinea.

Margins are a standout. A 40.2% operating margin and 25.8% net profit margin aren’t flukes—they're signs of strategic execution. While competitors battle cost creep, $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ has kept its all-in sustaining costs (AISC) under control, allowing more of every dollar earned to flow through to the bottom line.

It’s this internal leverage, not just the external tailwind from bullion prices, that’s fuelling upward earnings revisions. And that gives me far more confidence in the sustainability of the story.

Technical Momentum Suggests Big Money is Buying

Technicals are notoriously fickle in the mining sector—but the chart doesn’t lie. Newmont has decisively broken out of its multi-month range and recently touched a fresh 52-week high of $60.31. It’s now trading just below that, around $58.26, with healthy volume backing the move.

The stock is comfortably above its 50-day ($54.16) and 200-day ($48.03) moving averages, and with a beta of just 0.32, it’s delivering these gains without the whiplash that usually comes with gold equities.

Short interest remains low at 2.2%, and institutional holders account for over 75% of shares outstanding. This isn’t a meme-driven pop—this is large capital repositioning into real assets. And the fact that $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ is the bellwether for gold miners makes this rally particularly telling.

This chart confirms that Newmont’s technical momentum isn’t just alive — it’s trending with discipline and conviction.

Breakout confirmed: Newmont rides volatility with institutional precision

The Macro Is Turning Gold-Bull Friendly Again

Gold’s tailwinds aren’t going anywhere. The Fed looks increasingly boxed in—talking tough on inflation while watching sticky CPI components refuse to budge. Meanwhile, global debt sits at historic highs, central bank gold purchases continue, and geopolitical frictions are simmering.

Against that backdrop, gold’s appeal as a strategic hedge has grown stronger. Newmont, with its scale and geographic diversification, is a way to play this theme with less risk than owning physical bullion or leveraged ETFs.

I’d argue Newmont is morphing into a low-volatility yield play disguised as a gold stock. With a 1.76% dividend yield and a payout ratio under 23%, there’s plenty of room for the company to either raise distributions or buy back shares—both of which could support the price even if gold pauses for breath.

Here’s What the Market Might Be Missing

Investors focused solely on gold may be missing two quietly building tailwinds in Newmont’s story. First, the company now has significant exposure to copper via its Newcrest assets—an increasingly valuable strategic hedge as global electrification ramps up.

Second, Newmont is quietly becoming one of the more ESG-friendly plays in the space. Its emissions intensity is among the lowest in the sector, and it's targeting net-zero goals without sacrificing capital returns. In a world where ESG filters are tightening, this could prove to be an unexpected catalyst for institutional inflows.

Risks Exist—But They’re Manageable

Of course, it’s not all sunshine in the pit. Integration risk remains, and while synergy targets are optimistic, cultural and logistical complexity can’t be brushed aside.

The dividend yield, while solid, is below the 5-year average of 3.24%, which could deter income-focused investors. And naturally, if gold were to retreat meaningfully below $2,500 for a sustained period, Newmont’s impressive free cash flow—currently $7.09 billion—would face pressure.

However, with a current ratio near 2.0, over $4.7 billion in cash, and a debt/equity ratio of just 25%, the balance sheet provides a healthy margin of safety. That’s more than I can say for many in the space.

Resilience balanced with risk — gold isn’t the whole story

A Durable Gold Play, Not a Speculative Flicker

All things considered, I believe $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ has earned its place on any serious investor’s shortlist. The earnings revisions are backed by real structural improvements, not wishful thinking. The technical momentum is supported by fundamentals, not froth. And the macro environment is quietly tilting in favour of gold exposure again.

This isn’t the kind of stock that triples overnight. But with a forward valuation of 9.2x earnings, a fortress balance sheet, and optional upside from copper and ESG appeal, it offers a thoughtful way to gain leverage to a gold bull thesis—without overreaching.

In my view, Newmont’s golden run still has room to shine.

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