To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$💸📊🚨 Gap or Glory? The $CRCL Playbook Around the $140 Gap Below🚨📊💸🪙

📰 Prelude

Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) blasted 161 % higher out of its 5 Jun 25 IPO, topping at $298.99. After a sharp retreat to $184, I’m testing whether this is just a healthy breather in a bigger up-trend or the first crack in post-IPO price discovery. I’m blending fundamentals, technicals, and macro signals to navigate the next move with conviction.

📊 Fundamental Engine: Growth and Valuation

Circle’s model rests on three core revenue drivers: interest earned on USDC reserves, programmable infrastructure APIs, and settlement rails for digital payments. USDC supply sits at 61 B, and management guides for a 40 % compound rate through 2027. I’m projecting 26 % revenue and 37 % adjusted EPS CAGRs, driven by operating leverage on a cost base that is 90 % fixed.

Barclays calls Circle “one of the only ways” to tap blockchain’s fusion with traditional finance; Bernstein’s DCF shows a 71 % adjusted EBITDA CAGR by 2027; Seaport forecasts 25 – 30 % revenue growth. These estimates position Circle as a high-growth core holding.

Still, JPMorgan’s $80 target serves as a valuation check, reminding me that float income is vulnerable if Treasury yields compress and stablecoin competition intensifies, especially from tokenised deposits or digital money-market funds.

📈 Technical Lens: Tape Talk

From its post-IPO peak of $298.99 to a low of $156.43, $CRCL has dropped 47.5 %. Friday’s session saw buyers defend the 61.8 % Fibonacci level at $171, aligning with the anchored VWAP from the IPO. We’re hovering at the 50 % retracement near $184.

A breakout above $195 would reclaim that midpoint and set up a test of $210.75, where prior support intersects the descending channel’s mid-line. RSI is curling up from oversold, VWAP has flattened, and volume’s compressed, suggesting a coil before expansion. If $171 fails, $156 and even $140, the gap zone, come into play.

⏳ Lockup Countdown

Circle’s 180-day IPO lockup keeps insiders sidelined until early Q4 2025. Scarcity has helped support float pricing, yet history shows that post-lockup supply floods can shock prices. Facebook’s 2012 IPO is the precedent; I’ll watch that window for discounted re-entry.

💸 Options and Short Sentiment

Unusual Whales flagged 2 224 contracts of the 11 Jul $220 calls, $2 M in premium, 15 % OTM. Calls (17 862) outweigh puts (11 563), yielding a 0.65 put-call ratio that leans bullish, even with 56 % of 30 Jun volume printing bearish.

Short interest lists at 1.9 % on FINVIZ, but dark-pool and synthetic exposure likely push that higher, creating a split between bullish retail calls and institutional hedging that can spark volatility and gamma upside.

🌐 Macro Context: Rates and Regulation

Circle’s float income thrives in higher-rate regimes; if the Fed turns dovish, bears argue that falling yields will erode interest margins. Bernstein counters with USDC velocity and payment adoption scaling up.

The larger catalyst is legislation. The GENIUS Act cleared the Senate, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects House passage by mid-July. A federal framework for one-to-one reserve-backed stablecoins would unlock regulated institutional demand across finance, payments, and remittances.

🧠 Analyst Heatmap

🟢 Barclays $215, Bernstein $230, Citi $243, Needham $250

🟡 Deutsche Hold, Oppenheimer Perform

🔴 JPMorgan $80, Goldman Sachs $83

That $80 price target? I see it as more than a valuation concern. JPMorgan is, after all, a legacy bank whose business model is structurally threatened by regulated stablecoins. Circle’s rise undermines their gatekeeping role in payments, settlements, and currency issuance. Their bearish call may reflect more than just discounted cash flows.

SELL CIRCLE: More bearish on the name, JPMorgan initiated coverage of Circle with an Underweight rating and an $80 price target. While the firm views Circle as well positioned in the nascent stablecoin market with an early mover advantage in what has been a winner-takes-most market, and thinks highly of the Circle management team and is confident in the outlook for outsized stablecoin and USDC growth, JPMorgan cites Circle’s elevated current market capitalisation for its Underweight rating. With the firm witnessing the launch of tokenised deposit accounts, digital money-market funds, and a host of new entrants looking to enter the digital-dollar market, it sees competition as a potential threat to Circle. The firm added that its December 2026 price target of $80 per share implies a market cap of about $21 B, noting that the mid-point of the IPO was priced at $31 per share, or an $8 B market cap.

📦 Institutional Float

CRCL’s float capitalisation stands at $21.46 B with $222.8 M in equity, and turnover near 23.9 %. VanEck has overtaken CEO Jeremy Allaire as the largest holder; that is a notable endorsement from an ETF heavyweight. The float dynamic could shift materially once the lockup expires.

🔍 Price Discovery Mechanics

We sit at the 50 % Fib retracement of the IPO wave. Price defended $171 and printed $178 before rebounding. I see $195 and $210.75 as reclaim levels; a loss of $171 opens the door to $156 or $140.

🎯 Forward Scenarios

Bull (45 %): GENIUS passes, USDC share rises to 32 %, shorts cover, float yield holds; targets $210 then $243.

Base (35 %): Legislation stalls, rates stay flat, price ranges $171 to $210.

Bear (20 %): Yields tank, competition intensifies, a break below $156 targets $140.

📋 Watchlist

1. House Financial Services Committee calendar for GENIUS markup.

2. Daily USDC supply and burn via Circle’s live dashboard.

3. Two-year to ten-year Treasury spread as a proxy for float margin.

💡 Contrarian Insight: Circle as a Financial AWS

The market focuses on float margins, yet Circle’s programmable API infrastructure is the dark horse. These smart-contract rails could deliver AWS-style margin expansion as cross-chain standards harden. The potential remains underappreciated.

🛠️ Execution Plan

I’m not rushing in here. If $171 fails, I expect a flush to $156 and possibly a full gap-fill to $140. That is where the risk-reward turns asymmetric. I’m setting staggered limit orders between $144 and $157, concentrating near the unfilled gap zone where post-IPO volume thins.

I will act only on two signals: a high-volume flush into the $140s that triggers capitulation, or a confirmed reclaim of $195 above anchored VWAP. Once engaged, I’ll write covered calls at $220 to monetise IV above 125 %. More aggressive traders may prefer $150 to $200 debit spreads or laddered buys into the $140s, keeping powder dry for Q4 post-lockup positioning.

📜 Seaport Research View

Seaport Research initiated coverage of Circle (CRCL) with a Buy rating and a $235 price target, stating that Circle is “a top-tier crypto disruptor with a sizeable future opportunity.” Seaport expects global adoption of stablecoins such as USDC, Circle’s flagship product, to grow rapidly on the back of an improving regulatory climate, projecting the stablecoin market cap could expand from roughly $260 B today to $2 T over the longer term. The firm forecasts annual revenue growth of 25 – 30 % as this occurs, expects operating leverage to increase as the company scales, and argues that shares merit a premium valuation.

🏁 Conclusion

Circle isn’t just a stablecoin issuer; it is architecting the rails for programmable finance. The $41 B valuation demands flawless execution, and JPMorgan’s $80 target is a caution flag, yet the confluence of legislation, operating leverage, and an AWS-style API moat offers asymmetric upside. I’m preparing to ride the digital-dollar wave, not drown in it.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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