To The Moon

As Xiaomi's SUV hits the streets and its stock nears new highs, investors weigh adrenaline against valuation.

I’ll admit, when I heard Xiaomi was making a car, I expected a Bluetooth cupholder. Instead, we got the Xiaomi YU7 — a slick, fully electric SUV unveiled on 26 June that seems keen to take a swing at Tesla's Model Y in China’s ¥250,000 bracket. Add a soaring stock price, blistering revenue growth, and the ADR knocking on the door of a $200 billion market cap, and Xiaomi’s narrative has shifted from smartphone vendor to serious tech titan. The question is: can the YU7 keep the momentum roaring, or are we already redlining?

Gearing Up for Glory: Will Xiaomi’s YU7 Drive Its Stock Beyond $200B?

From Phones to Four Wheels — And a $200B Market Cap

As of 27 June, Xiaomi’s US-listed ADR (XIACY) sits at $37.85, trimming 4.2% on the day, but still just under its 52-week high of $40.25. Its market cap stands at $194.64 billion, a more-than-remarkable +240% return over the past year. To put that in perspective, it’s lapped the Hang Seng Index six times over, with $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ clocking in a +256% return over the same period.

The buzz is palpable — and it’s not just short sellers panicking. Xiaomi’s earnings growth (+161.2% YoY last quarter) and 47.4% revenue growth suggest this isn’t just sentiment; it’s delivery.

YU7 vs. Model Y: Xiaomi’s Biggest Leap Yet

So, what about the car? The YU7, positioned at around ¥250,000 (HK$270K / US$34K), directly challenges Tesla’s Model Y in China’s most contested EV segment. On paper, Xiaomi’s got a fair chance: its SUV boasts advanced autonomous driving, smooth integration with Xiaomi’s smart ecosystem, and, dare I say, more dashboard flair than Elon’s minimalist meditation pad.

But the EV market is unforgiving. Just ask $XPENG-W(09868)$ or $NIO-SW(09866)$. Xiaomi’s edge isn’t just the product — it’s the ecosystem. Imagine your YU7 syncing with your Xiaomi phone, vacuum, fridge, and doorbell. It's a playbook Apple never dared execute in metal and wheels. That, to me, is a wild card many investors haven’t priced in yet.

Show Me the Margins, Not Just the Hype

Yet, cars aren’t smartphones. They’re capital-intensive, and even Tesla took years to reach operating profitability. Xiaomi’s current PE ratio of 58.23 is a nosebleed level, and while the forward PE of 37.74 looks more reasonable, it reflects significant baked-in growth expectations. Xiaomi’s gross margin sits at 20.4%, good for a tech-hardware firm, but likely to compress as auto manufacturing scales up.

Still, Xiaomi’s balance sheet is enviable: HK$130B in cash, just HK$30.9B in debt, and free cash flow of HK$44B gives it the financial fuel to power this EV push without stalling its tech business. Its current ratio of 1.50 and debt-to-equity at just 12.9% are solid enough to make old-school CFOs smile.

Here’s an insight many may have missed: Xiaomi has one of the lowest capital expenditure-to-revenue ratios among auto-aspiring tech companies — a sign it’s leaning heavily on partnerships and supply chain efficiencies rather than doing everything in-house. That’s either genius or a future headache.

The HK$60 Question: Take Profit or Press the Pedal?

Momentum isn’t just a feeling — it’s chartable.

Xiaomi breaks out — but how far can momentum carry it?

The Xiaomi-W stock (1810.HK) just broke HK$60, pushing a new 52-week high. That’s a four-bagger from a year ago. So naturally, the itchy question: do we bank the win or back Lei Jun to go even further?

From a technical perspective, breaking HK$60 is significant. With volume doubling the average, it's clear this wasn’t just a random pop. Still, with no dividend, a relatively high valuation, and sentiment frothy, some trimming wouldn’t be heresy. On the flip side, if you believe in the YU7 and its potential to dent Tesla’s market share — especially given China’s growing appetite for local champions — then adding here could still be defensible.

Personally, I’m holding — with seatbelt fastened.

A Peek Under the Hood: One Last Insight

Here’s something that might surprise investors: institutional ownership of $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ is still virtually zero. For a company this size, that’s bizarre — and a potential tailwind. As Xiaomi deepens its automotive credibility and scales into mature EV volumes, more funds will have no choice but to allocate. And when the big money moves, it tends to be directional — and long.

Ecosystem or empire? The next bull may wear wheels

Grit, Gadgets and Gearboxes

Xiaomi’s transformation is nothing short of thrilling. It has the margins, the momentum, and now, the motor vehicle. While the valuation has undoubtedly raced ahead, the structural story — a diversified tech conglomerate entering the world’s largest EV market with an ecosystem advantage — is far from over.

In a market addicted to hype, $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ actually has the numbers to back its bravado. I like the YU7. I like the strategy. And I suspect the next leg of Xiaomi’s story will be written not in semiconductors or smartphones, but on roads across China.

Just don’t expect it to be a smooth ride.

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