To The Moon

Circle Internet Financial ($CRCL) experienced a violent pullback last week, tumbling over 17% and wiping out nearly $24 billion in market cap. After touching a high of ~$299 earlier in June, the stock crashed below $200, and as of the weekend, it's trading at $180.43. The question on every trader's mind: Will it continue falling — even to $100 — or is a bounce imminent?

Let's break it down 🔍:

🔻 Why the Crash?

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report warning that stablecoins like Circle's USDC are not suitable for critical financial infrastructure. This came just days after the Genius Act passed in the U.S., establishing a legal framework for stablecoins. While bullish long-term, it opens the door for competitors — hurting Circle's market dominance.

Adding fuel to the fire, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest dumped over $110 million in CRCL shares, sparking a wave of retail panic selling.

📊 Valuation Pressure

CRCL is trading at eye-watering multiples: nearly 37x revenue and 400x earnings — way above sector averages. Analysts have become cautious, with some even issuing hold or underperform ratings.

📉 Technical Signals

The stock broke below the critical $245–250 support zone. Now hovering near $180, it's testing the lower bounds of its current trading channel. The RSI is around 40, showing the stock is nearing oversold levels, but no strong bullish reversal has appeared yet.

🧠 Outlook & Prediction

A dip to $100 this week? Highly unlikely unless a new macro shock emerges.

More likely: a range-bound week between $180–220, with possible retests of $200 if sentiment improves.

Looking to July, if macro tailwinds return and regulation clarity stabilises, we could see a rebound to $230+.

Keep your eyes on:

Fed interest rate commentary

New stablecoin regulations

Whale trades or further fund liquidations

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!