To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚀⚡🔥 Independence Surge or Volatility Spark? My SPX & VIX Blueprint 🚀⚡🔥

📌 Prelude

The S&P 500 closed Friday at $6,173.07, locking in the fastest rebound from a 20 % draw-down since 1950. Spot VIX eased to 16.32, yet every contract on the futures curve trades above 18 %, showing traders still pay for protection even as price pushes into fresh highs. With three full sessions and a half-day before 4 July, I’m staying alert for either a melt-up or a surprise volatility jolt.

🧭 Macro Drivers

Liquidity remains a tailwind. The Fed begins tapering quantitative tightening in July, cutting roll-offs from $95B to $60B monthly; that shift supports market reserves just as the Treasury gears up for a Q3 refunding wave that could exceed $1.2T in bill supply. Positioning is aggressive: Goldman’s prime brokerage shows hedge-fund gross leverage at 294 %, the highest since 2020.

The 1-month 25-delta risk-reversal now shows a 4.84 % call premium. MenthorQ’s skew chart confirms what I’m seeing: traders are bidding for upside insurance, not crash hedges, a rare and telling flip at this stage of the rally.

🗓️ Catalyst Calendar | 🇳🇿 NZ Time

Tue 01 Jul 25 🇳🇿 NZ Time (Mon 30 Jun ET)

• Raphael Bostic speaks 10 a.​m.​ ET → Wed 02 Jul 02:00

• Quiet-period expiries: $CRCL, $OMDA

• Earnings: $PRGS after U.​S.​ close → Wed 02 Jul pre-market NZ

• Ex-dividends: $DE, $HEI, $CSCO, $PGR

Wed 02 Jul 25 🇳🇿 NZ Time (Tue 01 Jul ET)

• Powell, Lagarde, Ueda, Bailey, Rhee panel 09:30 a.​m.​ ET → Thu 03 Jul 01:30

• Auto-delivery blitz: $TSLA, $NIO, $XPEV, $LI, $RIVN, $LCID, $ZK, $PSNY, $GM, $F, $TM

• U.​S.​ construction-spending 10 a.​m.​ ET → Thu 03 Jul 02:00

• Earnings: $STZ, $GBX after U.​S.​ close → Thu 03 Jul pre-market NZ

Thu 03 Jul 25 🇳🇿 NZ Time (Wed 02 Jul ET)

• Earnings: $UNF pre-U.​S.​ open → Thu 03 Jul night NZ

• Jurassic World Rebirth U.​S.​ premiere — monitor $CMCSA

Fri 04 Jul 25 🇳🇿 NZ Time (Thu 03 Jul ET)

• ECB minutes 07:30 a.​m.​ ET → Fri 04 Jul 23:30

• U.​S.​ Non-Farm Payrolls 08:30 a.​m.​ ET → Sat 05 Jul 00:30

• Bostic keynote 10 a.​m.​ ET → Sat 05 Jul 02:00

• Early NYSE close 13:00 ET → Sat 05 Jul 05:00

Sat 05 Jul 25 🇳🇿 NZ Time (Fri 04 Jul ET)

• U.​S.​ equity and bond markets closed for Independence Day

📈 SPX Technical Dashboard

SPX broke out from a rising-wedge formation, turning $6,150 into short-term support. My upside targets are $6,260, the projected wedge move, and $6,310, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the March–April leg.

RSI sits at 71, overbought yet confirming momentum, while MACD remains firmly positive. I treat the 21-day EMA at $6,065 as my fail-safe level; a close below that signals potential exhaustion.

⚡ Volatility & Options

VIX front-month futures settled at 18.85 (VX N5); the curve slopes toward 21 % into December. MenthorQ’s 3-D volatility surface shows traders bidding for both calls and puts. Index put-call ratio finished at 1.13, underscoring broad upside interest, while single-stock skew stays defensive, for example $TSLA put-call near 1.8.

OptionMetrics data indicate dealers are short roughly 420,000 SPX calls struck between $6,200 and $6,300, a dense gamma zone that can accelerate rallies, yet hedging flows may lift VIX even if the tape rises.

🔎 Hedge-Fund & Analyst Lens

• Citi lifts its 2025 SPX base case to $6,300 and bull case to $7,000, citing AI capex and 8 % revenue growth

• Goldman Sachs trims its target to $6,200, projecting a 10 % return on $268B EPS, and now expects the first Fed cut in 2026

• Morgan Stanley sees $6,500 by mid-2026 as market breadth improves

• CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25 bp cut in September between 55 % and 78 %

• Hedge funds rotated into US mega-cap tech and energy last week, trimming European defensives and adding $NVDA and $XLE to hedge Gulf-region risk

🎯 Watchlist Compass

• SPX upside: $6,260 and $6,310

• SPX guard-rail: $6,065 (21-day EMA)

• VIX zones: calm under 16, volatility spike above 18.50

• Macro toggles: Powell’s Sintra remarks, NFP surprise risk, Treasury-bill issuance tone

• Key stocks: $TSLA holding $248.50, $NVDA pivoting near $123.80, both highly reactive to delivery updates and AI news

🏁 Conclusion

Despite the holiday-shortened calendar, this week is packed with macro landmines. A call-skew inversion, dense dealer gamma, and steep vol curve could catapult SPX toward $6,300 if Powell stays dovish and payrolls land softly; thin liquidity means any negative shock could trigger outsized swings.

I’m flat for now, tracking price, volatility, and macro catalysts closely. If SPX holds above $6,065, I’ll consider engaging. Until then I’m staying sharp, not overcommitted; this tape is wired for speed.

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Trade like a boss, Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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