To The Moon

My Investing Muse (30Jun25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• FedEx to close 30% of package facilities as network integration ramps up. Redesign of express and ground delivery is already generating millions of dollars in savings. - FreightWaves

• Sabic, one of the world's largest petrochemical manufacturers, will shut its Olefins 6 cracker plant in Wilton, Teesside, after 46 years of it operating. The firm currently employs 330 people at the site. - BBC

• Accenture sees highest-ever quarterly drop in headcount, as numbers fall by ...; America's contributed the largest to total revenue - Times of India

• Intel will shut down its automotive business, lay off most of the department’s employees - Oregon Live

• They’re (Microsoft) about to cut another 3,000 jobs next week and here’s who’s getting hit: – Xbox: EVERY division – Sales org: expect hefty cuts – Marketing: chopped up too – Europe ops: pulled out entirely!! This comes just weeks after: – 6,000 layoffs in May – 8,000 more announced this month -305 out of WA Ya'll if this is right - that’s 17,000+ jobs gone in 60 days with more likely coming. They already said performance ones are coming. – Xbox is being hollowed out – Hardware sales are down – Execs are pivoting to Windows – “Next-gen” Xbox is now basically a PC with a controller Can we call this for what it is- Shrinkage. Carnage. Regardless of the final # (rumored 3K)- it is confirmed- a round of “major layoffs” is due next week. - X user Amanda Goodall

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Amazon just told thousands of employees to relocate. No severance if they say no. According to reports, Amazon is requiring employees to relocate to: Seattle, WA (HQ1) Arlington, VA (HQ2) Nashville, TN (Operations Center) Possibly also New York and Bay Area for select divisions. I believe the translation here ya'll is that forced attrition is the new layoff. - X user Amanda Goodall

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

The Costs of Living challenges

Here is some news that highlights the challenges of the cost of living.

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McDonald’s prices have skyrocketed since 2014: • McChicken: +199% ($1.00 → $2.99) • McDouble: +168% ($1.19 → $3.19) • Medium Fries: +138% ($1.59 → $3.79) • Quarter Pounder with Cheese Meal: +122% ($5.39 → $11.99) Even fast food is expensive. Visual: Carbon Finance

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2 million student loan borrowers are about to get their wages garnished. 6 million are already 90+ days delinquent. - X user Amanda Goodall

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68% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck. Read that again. 68% ya'll! PYMNTS’ latest report shows 684 out of every 1,000 U.S. adults are barely keeping up. This also corresponds pretty closely to what an exec at Chime told me - it's just a bit worse... but hey it's been a few months since that convo. 1 in 4 can’t even pay their monthly bills without falling behind. At this point is it due to wages/layoffs or is it just consumer debt driven?? - X user Amanda Goodall

My final thoughts

It can take months or years before the market enters a correction. It can also happen in a moment. A market top cannot conceal some of the market weaknesses in debt and demand (in the American economy). Consider building a portfolio that benefits from a bull, bear or baboon run.

The S&P 500 is not a representation of the American economy. Over 70% of global funds invested in equities are poured into the American market. The S&P 500 has a global presence, and its earnings represent revenue of these global businesses, not the American economy. It is simply the “preferred” marketplace for many investors, especially those outside of America. Yet, I have started rebalancing my portfolio, exiting some US positions.

Corrections are a normal part of any typical market cycle. These should be welcomed as they present good opportunities for “wealth transfer”. There are concerning signs of weakening commercial real estate (CRE), devaluation of USD, the (quiet) printing of USD, debt (federal, corporate and consumer), growing supply of real estate, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, wars and natural disasters.

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With USD falling 10% in 2025 alone, non-American investors have suffered forex losses. Without a profit margin of 15% (or more, depending on the fees and platforms used), investors could not break even with a 10% on USD-denominated assets. This is something that we need to consider, as other factors like inflation complicate the returns.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$