To The Moon

Come Wed, 28 May 2025, earnings report from semiconductor giant and AI bellwether $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ takes center stage for Wall Street.

This as US stocks hit a speed bump of worries over federal deficits driving up Treasury yields.

Focus will shift to after-hours quarterly results from Nvidia, one of the world's largest companies by market value whose stock is a major influence on benchmark equity indexes.

NVDA is the last of "Magnificent 7" Megacap tech & growth companies to report results for this period.

So far, the Mag 7 have been mixed in 2025 after leading the market higher as a group in the last 2 years.

Only $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ are YTD above 0% returns. (see above)

Q1 2026 Forecast.

Nvidia's Q1 earnings are likely jumped about +45% YoY, based on LSEG polled analysts’ estimates:

• Earnings Per Share (adjusted): $0.88 vs Q1 2024’s $0.60, a +46.67 YoY gain.

• Revenue: $43.3 billion vs Q1 2024’s $26.04 billion, a +66.28% YoY gain.

All these would be driven by continued strong demand for Nvidia’s H200 and GB200 AI chips, even as the company faces a $5.5 billion charge due to blocked sales in China resulting from US export restrictions

Q2 2026 Guidance.

More importantly, traders will be keen to find out NVDA’s guidance / outlook for current quarter, given the volatility and uncertainty over US’s chips’ export regulations.

According to Cantor Fitzgerald, Snr MD, C.J. Muse:

• He has an “Overweight” rating on NVDA, and with a $200 price target.

• Projects July-quarter revenue of about $46 billion, just shy of the $46.3 billion Wall Street consensus.

• This as factoring in a $15 billion hit from H20 chip restrictions and solid early demand for Blackwell chips.

• Sees a meaningful ramp in GB300 shipments starting in Q4 2025, with roughly 25,000 units shipping in 2025 alone.

• Forecasts Data Center revenue climbing towards $200 billion next year, up from a $175 billion estimate.

[Note] :

• These are all very lofty numbers given that US’s tariffs’ effect is still yet to be played out over the course of 2025 and into 2026.

• Coupled with the begging question of whether the Fed would cut interest rate in 2025.

As of Friday, 23 May 2025

Stock Movement - so far.

As of US market close on 23 May 2025, NVDA is down -5.08% for the year.

This comes after NVDA jumped over +1,000% from late 2022 to the end of 2024, thanks to big gains in revenue and profits from its AI chip business.

CEO In Action.

In a bid for NVDA to remain “relevant” and in the limelight, CEO Jensen Huang has been highly visible, for the past 2 weeks, on the run up to earnings release:

(1) COMPUTEX 2025 Keynote:

• Huang delivered a high-profile keynote at Computex, held on May 20 - 23 at Taipei, Taiwan.

• He unveiled new technologies and strategies to maintain Nvidia’s AI leadership.

• The centerpiece was NVLink Fusion, a platform enabling companies to integrate custom chips into Nvidia’s AI infrastructure, aiming to expand Nvidia’s reach beyond mega data center deals and into enterprise markets.

• Throughout Computex, Huang was the center of attention, reflecting his status as a leading figure in the tech industry and the phenomenon dubbed "Jensanity" by local media.

(2) Product Launches:

• Nvidia introduced a new line of servers described as an "Enterprise AI supercomputer," targeting broader enterprise adoption beyond traditional AI workloads.

(3) Media Engagements:

• Huang addressed concerns about US export bans on advanced GPUs to China, criticizing the policy as "precisely the wrong policy" and arguing it harms both Nvidia and global AI research.

• He emphasized that AI infrastructure is being built worldwide and that Nvidia will continue to adapt its products to comply with export controls, though further degradation of its GPU architecture is becoming increasingly difficult.

(4) Strategic Vision:

• Huang highlighted the importance of building AI infrastructure globally, not just through sovereign mega-deals but by making Nvidia’s platforms foundational for a wider range of industries and applications.

• He also commented on the need for faster approval of energy projects to support the growing power demands of AI data centers.

Best News Yet ?

Perhaps the “best” piece of news out of Nvidia is (see below) :

• Nvidia plans to launch a new, lower-cost AI chip for China market, leveraging its latest Blackwell architecture.

• The new GPU, expected to price between $6,500 - $8,000 costs significantly less than the restricted H20 model ($10,000–$12,000).

• Its reduced specifications & simpler manufacturing, (using standard GDDR7 memory instead of high-bandwidth memory) and omitting advanced packaging technology.

By introducing a new US export rules’ compliant product (by limiting memory bandwidth to around 1.7 terabytes per second specifically), just under the regulatory cap, NVDA aims to regain access to China’s $50 billion data center market, that previously accounted for 13% of NVDA’s revenue.

This is not the first but third time that NVDA has tailored a chip for China in response to tightening US export controls. Neither will it be the final time.

Will this be the ace-in-the-hole that NVDA needs not just to stablize its falling stock price but make inroads into China’s massive market once again ?

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• Do you think US will approve NVDA’s latest modified & slower chip for export purpose?

• Do you think there will be demand for this “slower” GPU chip not just from China but less wealthy countries as well ’?

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