To The Moon

Quantum Leaps or Bubble Trouble? A Financial Peek Into QBTS, QUBT, and IONQ

Where quantum logic meets market lunacy.

May was a manic month for quantum stocks. $D-Wave Quantum Inc.(QBTS)$ surged 139%, $Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ spiked 70%, and $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ rose 28%—all on the back of bold announcements and growing investor excitement over the so-called dawn of the quantum computing era. But as with any revolution, there's a thin line between 'just the beginning' and 'already overdone.' So let’s examine the numbers with an investor’s lens—and a touch of healthy scepticism.

Markets meet multiverses: the quantum thesis, visualised with style

QBTS: A 1,246% rocket, fuelled by hope not profit

D-Wave Quantum has been the poster child of quantum exuberance. Its share price has catapulted over 1,200% in the past year, peaking at $17.79 from a humble $0.75. That’s not a typo. But beneath the rocket plume lies a business generating just $21.36 million in annual revenue, paired with a whopping net loss of $132 million.

Their price-to-sales ratio sits at a celestial 173x—about 60 times higher than Nvidia’s, and Nvidia has earnings. Book value per share is just $0.71, making the current market cap of $4.48 billion feel more fever dream than fair value. Free cash flow is negative, though they hold a respectable $304 million in cash, likely a war chest to keep building hardware and fending off dilution.

Now, here’s an insight you might’ve missed: despite its massive rally, the 1-year price target sits at $12.83—a full 22% below where it trades today. That suggests the analysts still believe in quantum, but not in that price.

QUBT: From the ashes, a flash of hype

Quantum Computing Inc. makes QBTS look frugal. It pulled in just $373,000 in revenue over the past 12 months—yes, thousand, not million—yet boasts a $1.49 billion market cap. That gives it a price-to-sales ratio of over 3,300x. Even WeWork’s wildest days look modest next to this.

Losses are steep at $68 million annually, and cash flow is predictably negative. To its credit, it has low debt, a solid $78 million cash buffer, and a relatively modest debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1%. But when your entire company’s revenue can barely buy a Porsche 911, you do wonder whether investors are pricing in the endgame of quantum supremacy, not its beginnings.

Still, it’s up 1,330% in the past year, and 954% over five. Clearly, someone believes.

IONQ: The grown-up in the room?

IONQ looks positively conservative in comparison. Its May rally of 28% seems tame, but it has more substance underneath. In 2024, IONQ posted over $22 million in revenue, a 98% year-on-year increase, and is forecasting $37–41 million for 2025. That’s still small potatoes in tech terms, but light-years ahead of QUBT’s pocket-change income.

More importantly, IONQ’s partnerships with Amazon, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and Dell signal that real demand is building. Yes, it’s still loss-making, and yes, its valuation is stretched. But unlike the others, IONQ has a commercial model already in motion. It’s not just demoing quantum; it’s renting it out.

One underappreciated insight: IONQ’s relatively lower beta (compared to QUBT’s 3.75) makes it less of a speculative balloon and more of a calculated bet.

But how have these quantum journeys stacked up against each other—and the broader market?

Quantum paths diverge—timing is everything

And with rising volatility across speculative tech, the timing risk is real.

Is a pullback inevitable? Probably—but not fatal

After these massive run-ups, a cooling period feels inevitable. Short interest in QBTS is already over 20% of float, and insiders still hold just 2.6%. That’s not a vote of confidence from within. Meanwhile, QUBT’s fundamentals suggest any negative surprise—earnings or otherwise—could send it spiralling back to single digits.

But before we call this another tech bubble, remember: quantum computing is a transformative technology. While it's still early days, and commercial impact remains limited, the recent launches—like D-Wave’s sixth-gen Advantage2—show tangible progress. This isn’t vaporware. It’s just not profitable yet.

So, which horse do I back?

Between the three, $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ is my top pick for a cautious optimist. It's still richly valued, but at least there’s revenue, real contracts, and the outline of a sustainable business model. QBTS is a close second if you’ve got a higher risk appetite and a strong stomach. Its cash pile buys time, and its product pipeline is robust. As for QUBT—well, let's just say I need to see more than five digits of revenue before I get excited.

At the edge of reason, quantum waves reshape the path

Verdict: Quantum isn’t a bubble—yet

This isn't just the beginning of a hype cycle. It is the beginning of a technology cycle. But markets move faster than science. Quantum computing is still years from changing the world, but investors are already acting as if it has. That mismatch creates risk—but also the chance to buy in during the inevitable dips.

The best strategy? Stay nimble, stay sceptical—and stay long on knowledge. The quantum era is coming—but your portfolio doesn’t have to go subatomic in the process.

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