Nasdaq 100 Erases YTD Declines: Bull Market Returns or a Beautiful Illusion?
US stocks are surging once again. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ has returned to a technical bull market! The “Magnificent 7” added $830 billion in market cap in just one day. It seems the market has fully shaken off the pain caused by Trump’s early-April policy moves.
Don’t the past six weeks feel like a bad dream?
Following this weekend’s talks, most tariffs have been suspended.
Roberto Scholtes, Head of Strategy at Singular Bank, said U.S. equities are unlikely to revisit record highs in the short term. Even if a final deal is reached, companies will still suffer from the chaos and uncertainty of U.S. economic policy. “We bought the dip earlier,” he said. “Now we’re on pause—but also considering whether to trim positions on the rebound.”
Other investors believe the shift in market sentiment could be enough to spark a global rally.
Today, the first CPI report after the tariff decision landed smoothly—headline CPI came in below expectations, while core CPI matched forecasts. Traders have increased their expectations for Fed rate cuts, now betting on a first cut in September and a second one in October.
Now, Mag 7 are breaking out one by one, with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ nearing $130.
Do you believe the bull market is truly back?
Or is this just a flash in the pan?
Has CPI acted as a shot of adrenaline for the bulls?
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Still, the momentum is strong. With traders expecting Fed rate cuts, liquidity could keep pushing stocks higher. NVIDIA’s run towards $130 shows AI optimism remains. This rally feels like a shot of adrenaline, but sharp rebounds often bring sharp pullbacks, so I’m staying careful.
I’m holding my positions but being disciplined. I bought the dip earlier, so this rally is a chance to review my portfolio and trim profits on overstretched names. Timing tops is hard, but a balanced approach—taking profits while holding core positions—feels safest now.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub
I think better to play safe. market can be unpredictable and constant investing is more important be it good or bad swing... more importantly, have emergency [USD] [USD] [USD] if have extra [USD] [USD] [USD] invest more in downturn to take advantages of the discount stocks [Sly] [Sly] [Sly]
US stocks are surging once again. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ has returned to a technical bull market! The “Magnificent 7” added $830 billion in market cap in just one day. It seems the market has fully shaken off the pain caused by Trump’s early-April policy moves.
Other investors believe the shift in market sentiment could be enough to spark a global rally.
Do you believe the bull market is truly back?
Or is this just a flash in the pan?
Has CPI acted as a shot of adrenaline for the bulls?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
However caution needs to be exercised to determine if it is a short term rally as the macroeconomic conditions are still prevailing.
Either way, I will still take the long term perspective as I believe that the market will reward those who have patience to buy and hold great stocks like the Magnificent 7 over the long term.
As the late great Charlie Munger likes to say, The Big Money is not in the Buying and Selling but in the Waiting.
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
首先，这一轮反弹主要集中在少数超级权重股上，AI、半导体、云服务三大板块强势拉动整体指数，但中小市值成长股的表现依然低迷，市场广度并未真正恢复。更值得警惕的是，美联储虽然暗示年内或将降息，但通胀粘性与就业韧性依然让货币政策存在不确定性，利率长期维持高位的可能性不容忽视。
从企业盈利层面看，虽然科技巨头交出的财报亮眼，但背后往往依赖削减开支、裁员与AI泡沫估值驱动，真实的业绩成长是否可持续仍需时间验证。
在我看来，纳指的回升固然提振了市场信心，但这更像是高估值状态下的技术性修复，而非全面牛市的起点。此时，更需要保持冷静，以基本面为锚，谨慎布局，避免被市场短期反弹的“幻觉”冲昏了头脑。
這輪行情的“催化劑”之一，確實是CPI數據。通脹放緩的跡象給了市場喘息的空間，投資者立即把它解讀爲美聯儲更接近降息的信號，尤其是高估值科技股，立刻得到“腎上腺素”加持。但也要冷靜看清，通脹下降不代表風險全消，美聯儲態度依然偏謹慎，而地緣、政治與消費信心等變量仍在。
至於NVDA這波衝刺，它固然有基本面支撐，AI熱潮也還沒退燒，但估值已經越來越“貴”。現在進場的風險，和機會幾乎是五五開。所以我現在更傾向於高位減倉、留些子彈，而不是追着熱點跑。牛市要確認，得看後續是否能放量續漲，而不是一兩隻龍頭拉動就蓋章定論。
The two big boys will continue to fight and quarrel.. Today they sit together to eat duck and potato chips, next month will throw bones and chips at each other again.
And for the CPI, don't investors feel tired? Every month the same old theory.
公牛开始了