To The Moon

Earnings Calendar (12May25)

I am interested in the earnings of JD, Sea, Monday, NU, Tencent, Alibaba, Walmart and John Deere.

Let us look at Monday.

Monday’s stock price grew 53% from a year ago. The technical analysis recommends “Strong Buy”. The Analysts’ sentiment has a “Buy” rating. The price target of $343.89 suggests an upside of 23.59%.

Revenue

• Growth Trend: Monday.com's revenue has grown significantly, increasing from $78 million in 2019 to $972 million in 2024. The 6-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue is not explicitly provided but can be inferred as substantial (approximately 52% CAGR based on the data).

• Key Milestones: Revenue growth was strong, with increases of 106.3% in 2020, 91.3% in 2021, 68.4% in 2022, 40.6% in 2023, and 33.2% in 2024, reflecting rapid expansion driven by demand for its work management platform.

• Competitive Advantage: Monday.com’s impressive revenue growth highlights its strong position in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) market, capitalising on the shift toward remote work and collaborative tools, with a scalable platform that caters to diverse industries.

Operating Profit

• Growth Trend: Operating profit has improved, moving from a loss of -$93 million in 2019 to a loss of -$21 million in 2024. The operating margin has also improved, from -118.5% in 2019 to -2.2% in 2024.

• Operating Margin: The operating margin has shown steady improvement, moving from -118.5% in 2019 to -93.4% in 2020, -40.9% in 2021, -29.3% in 2022, -5.3% in 2023, and -2.2% in 2024, indicating progress toward profitability.

• Competitive Advantage: Monday.com’s narrowing operating losses demonstrate its ability to scale efficiently while managing costs, a key strength for a high-growth SaaS company as it approaches profitability.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• Growth Trend: EPS has improved from a loss of -$2.36 in 2019 to a profit of $0.62 in 2024. Growth rates show significant improvement, such as 34.0% in 2022, 98.7% in 2023, and 1,650.0% in 2024, reflecting the transition to positive earnings.

• Volatility: EPS has been volatile, with a notable decline of -66.1% in 2020 and -15.6% in 2021, but the recent shift to positive EPS in 2024 is a strong positive signal.

• Competitive Advantage: The shift to positive EPS in 2024 highlights Monday.com’s maturing business model and ability to generate shareholder value, driven by its growing customer base and product adoption.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

• Valuation: The P/E ratio is very high at 437.8, reflecting Monday.com’s low earnings relative to its stock price and the market’s high expectations for future growth.

• 10-Year Median Returns: Specific median returns over 10 years are not provided, but from 2019 to 2024, return on assets (ROA) improved from -88.9% to 2.2%, return on equity (ROE) from -87.4% to 3.5%, and return on invested capital (ROIC) from -96.9% to 3.3%, showing a positive trend.

• Competitive Advantage: The high P/E ratio indicates strong market confidence in Monday.com’s future growth, supported by its improving returns, though it also suggests potential overvaluation if growth expectations are not met.

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

• Growth Trend: The EV/FCF ratio is 42.7, indicating a high valuation relative to free cash flow, but the screenshot does not provide a specific FCF CAGR. The improving operating profit suggests progress toward positive cash flow generation.

• Capital Structure: The screenshot does not provide debt/equity or debt/assets ratios, but Monday.com is known for maintaining a low-debt profile, focusing on equity financing to support growth.

• Competitive Advantage: Monday.com’s improving financials suggest it is moving toward stronger cash flow generation, which supports its growth initiatives, such as product development and market expansion.

Overall Assessment

Over the period from 2019 to 2024, Monday.com has demonstrated exceptional growth, with revenue increasing significantly and operating losses narrowing to -$21 million in 2024. EPS has shifted from a loss to a profit ($0.62 in 2024), with strong growth in recent years. The company does not pay dividends, focusing on reinvestment to fuel growth. The extremely high P/E ratio (437.8) reflects market optimism about Monday.com’s future, though it also suggests potential overvaluation. Improving ROIC (3.3% in 2024) and a high gross margin (89.3%) underscore its competitive advantages, including its leadership in work management software, a scalable SaaS model, and growing adoption across industries. Monday.com’s focus on collaborative tools positions it well for continued growth, though its high valuation requires sustained performance to justify investor expectations.

The forecast of the EPS and revenue are 0.703 and $275.61M. For this stock, I choose to observe from the side for now.

@TigerStars

$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$

$Alibaba(BABA)$

$TENCENT(00700)$

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