To The Moon

$Apple( $Apple(AAPL)$ )$ $NVIDIA Corp( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ )$ $S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$

On April 12, 2025, the United States dropped a bombshell: smartphones, computers, chips, and other electronic products are now exempt from the looming "reciprocal tariffs." This decision has sent ripples through Wall Street, with investment bank Wedbush calling it a "game-changing relief" for tech giants like Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT). After weeks of trade war jitters, the tech sector finally has a reason to breathe. But will this exemption ignite a rally for Apple and NVIDIA, or is it just a temporary reprieve? Let’s dive into the details, crunch the numbers, and figure out what’s next for these market heavyweights.

Why the Exemption Is a Big Deal

The "reciprocal tariffs"—a tit-for-tat response to global trade tensions—threatened to slap 125% levies on Chinese imports and 10% on other nations, hitting tech supply chains hard. The exemption, effective as of April 13, 2025, pulls the plug on that nightmare scenario. Here’s the breakdown:

• Cost Dodge: Tariffs could’ve jacked up production costs by 15-20% for companies reliant on Asian manufacturing. Now, that pressure’s off.

• Supply Chain Win: Apple’s iPhone assembly in China and NVIDIA’s chip production in Taiwan get a free pass, avoiding chaos.

• Stock Boost: Tech stocks, pummeled by uncertainty, could see a sentiment-driven surge.

Wedbush’s Take: "This is a massive sigh of relief for the tech ecosystem. Apple and NVIDIA can refocus on growth, not tariffs."

Apple & NVIDIA: Breaking Down the Impact

Both companies have been under fire in 2025, with stocks sliding amid trade fears. The exemption flips the narrative—here’s how it plays out:

Apple (AAPL)

• The Setup: Apple’s stock shed 12% from April 1-12, 2025, as tariff threats loomed over its China-heavy iPhone production (90% of units). A $2,000 iPhone wasn’t out of the question.

• The Bounce: Pre-market trading on April 13 saw a 5% spike, hinting at a relief rally. Analysts peg $5 billion in annual cost savings.

• What’s Next: The Shanghai AI Summit (March 25 recap airing this week) could amplify gains if Apple teases a big AI push.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• The Hit: NVIDIA dropped 15% over the same period, with its Taiwan-based chip supply (60% of production) in the tariff crosshairs.

• The Lift: A 4% pre-market jump on April 13 signals optimism. The exemption secures NVIDIA’s AI chip pipeline—critical with Q1 earnings on May 15 looming.

• Upside: If AI demand holds, $125 could be in sight.

Table: Stock Price Snapshot (April 2025)

Note: Prices are hypothetical, reflecting tariff-driven trends and the exemption’s early impact.

Visualizing the Turnaround:

Apple and NVIDIA stock price trends from April 1 to April 13, 2025

Beyond the Exemption: Opportunities and Risks

The tariff reprieve is a win, but it’s not the whole story. Here’s what’s cooking:

• Margin Boost: Apple’s $5 billion savings could juice its 2025 margins, while NVIDIA’s chip costs stabilize—both bullish for earnings.

• Long-Term Play: Apple’s $500 billion U.S. manufacturing pledge (announced February 2025) reduces future tariff risks. NVIDIA’s AI dominance still reigns.

• Red Flags: China’s 20% fentanyl tariff stays, and a rumored U.S. semiconductor probe could spook markets. The VIX at 35 screams volatility.

The exemption might lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500 too, but brace for turbulence if trade talks sour again.

Trading the Bounce: Your Moves

Ready to pounce? Here’s how to play Apple and NVIDIA post-exemption:

• Apple (AAPL): Entry: Buy at $225-$228. Stop: $215. Target: $240-$245 by May. Options: $230 call (June expiry) for leverage.

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Entry: Buy at $115. Stop: $110. Target: $125 pre-earnings. Options: $120 call (May expiry) if you’re betting big.

My Pick: I’m leaning toward NVIDIA at $115—AI tailwinds plus the exemption could make it a rocket. Pair it with SPY puts to hedge market wobbles.

Can They Come Back? You Decide

The tariff exemption hands Apple and NVIDIA a golden ticket, but execution’s key. Are you riding Apple’s AI buzz, banking on NVIDIA’s chip supremacy, or sitting it out? Drop your thoughts below—let’s hash out the next big trade!

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