Is Singapore's Avoidance of Retaliatory Tariffs a Smart Move?
Following the announcement of US tariff policies, many countries began considering retaliatory countermeasures.
With the US imposing a 10% tariff on Singapore, despite free trade agreement and a trade deficit with the US, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has made it clear:
No Retaliatory Tariffs, Strengthening Partnerships with Like-minded Countries
He said, “The world is entering a more arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous phase.”
What Do US tariffs Mean for Singapore Markets?
As for the short-term impact of tariffs, Singapore expects weaker global growth, which will reduce external demand for its goods and services.
Outward-facing sectors like manufacturing, wholesale trade, transport, and finance will be hit first.
While it's unclear if a recession will occur, economic growth will certainly take a significant hit. The government is reassessing its 1%–3% GDP growth forecast and may revise it downward if global conditions worsen.
Yet, Singapore has not closed the door on support. A taskforce is stepping in to help businesses and workers adapt.
Questions for Discussion
Is this the smartest move under the circumstances?
If you were the decision-maker, would you impose counter tariffs or continue playing the long game?
Would imposing retaliatory tariffs really help or hurt the economy more in the long run?
How do you think this might affect the $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ or other SGX-listed companies?
Could sectors like REITs, banks, or SG-based logistics see longer-term headwinds?
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Following the announcement of US tariff policies, many countries began considering retaliatory countermeasures.
short-term impact of tariffs, Singapore expects weaker global growth, which will reduce external demand for its goods and services.
Outward-facing sectors like manufacturing, wholesale trade, transport, and finance will be hit first.
Yet, Singapore has not closed the door on support. A taskforce is stepping in to help businesses and workers adapt.
Is this the smartest move under the circumstances?
If you were the decision-maker, would you impose counter tariffs or continue playing the long game?
Would imposing retaliatory tariffs really help or hurt the economy more in the long run?
How do you think this might affect the $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ or other SGX-listed companies?
Could sectors like REITs, banks, or SG-based logistics see longer-term headwinds?
新加坡的制造业、运输、批发贸易、金融服务等对外依赖度极高，一旦全球贸易链出现阻滞，首先受伤的就是这些“外向型”板块。特别是半导体与精密工程行业，若全球企业削减开支，订单缩减是难以避免的。STI指数中权重较高的出口导向企业，如Keppel、Yangzijiang、Sembcorp等，短期波动在所难免。
不过政府反应算是快。成立特别工作组介入、协助企业转型、鼓励数字化和区域多元化发展，这种“软着陆”策略比起硬碰硬地加征反制关税，我个人认为更具现实意义。新加坡作为小型开放经济体，搞“贸易战”代价太高，不如打持久战，找新市场、拼效率，才是长期出路。
从资产配置角度来看，我会更加倾向于防守型领域，比如银行、REITs和物流资产。银行受利率与信贷质量影响较大，但当前本地银行估值不高、分红稳健，是动荡环境下的压舱石。REITs方面，若通胀温和回落、利率见顶，反而有利于估值修复，尤其是物流与工业类REITs。但零售和高端写字楼REITs可能面对外资流入放缓、消费降温等双重压力。
总结来看，美国关税短期冲击不可小觑，但新加坡政府采取的是“减震式管理”，而非硬碰硬。如果我是决策者，我也会选择先以稳为主、少对抗，毕竟灵活生存比“逞一时之勇”更重要。中长期来看，反制关税并不一定带来更大好处，反而可能引发连锁反应，得不偿失。STI未来走势，可能会更受宏观环境和本地政策弹性所影响，维持谨慎偏中性看法。
If I were in charge, I’d focus on collaboration and economic diversification rather than retaliation. Tariffs often end up hurting domestic industries and raising costs, which impacts consumers and businesses. By investing in resilience, innovation, and expanding trade ties, Singapore could better weather the impact of tariffs.
The STI $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ could see short-term pressure, but the government's supportive measures may help stabilize things. REITs and banks might experience mixed results, but if stability returns, these sectors could recover over time.
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
@Universe宇宙 @Wayneqq @DiAngel @Success88 @HelenJanet @rL @Kaixiang @Fenger1188 @SPOT_ON come join
I am really glad that Singapore's Prime Minister has chosen not to have retaliatory tariffs against the US. It opens the way for more diplomatic negotiations with the US.
Singapore's economy is tiny compared to the US and is very vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.
I am also glad that Lawrence Wong is taking measures to help struggling businesses in Singapore and provide some economic relief to Singaporeans in the form of CDC vouchers and other measures.
Ultimately no one wins in Trump's punitive tariffs, not even the US. Ordinary Americans will have to pay higher prices for their consumption needs. Let's pray for Trump to rescind the punitive trade tariffs.
@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
新加坡是一个典型的外向型经济体，贸易额是GDP的几倍，对外贸的依赖极高。面对美国“对等关税”这种单边主义做法，若新加坡贸然报复，可能在短期内博得民族情绪上的掌声，但从实际利益出发，这种对抗性动作反而会让新加坡陷入更不利的局面。尤其是在全球供应链高度交错的今天，失去美国市场或惹怒关键伙伴，对新加坡来说代价太大。
黄循财总理的表态其实已经传达出一个很明确的信号：新加坡明白自己在国际舞台上的“体量”，与其正面对抗，不如坚持规则、多边主义立场，争取更多国家的共识与支持。更重要的是，他也点出了一个核心现实——全球正从自由贸易转向“碎片化地缘政治+经济安全优先”的新时代，这不是靠一时的强硬姿态就能逆转的。
对新加坡来说，当务之急是增强自身经济韧性，包括推动区域合作（如RCEP）、多元化市场、发展高附加值产业等，来抵御未来可能更频繁的外部冲击。不报复，不等于不作为，而是为了更大的战略空间。这个选择，不是软弱，而是深谋远虑的成熟表现。