To The Moon

⸻

1. Investor Sentiment

• Tariff wars = Uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. Investors could fear rising costs, squeezed margins, and slower growth, especially in China—one of Tesla’s key markets.

• This could trigger selloffs, especially from institutions focused on near-term profitability and global exposure.

⸻

2. Revenue Growth Risk

• China is a massive growth driver for Tesla. If Chinese tariffs remain on U.S.-made Teslas, demand could drop.

• Investors would likely price in weaker future revenues, especially if Tesla loses ground to Chinese EV rivals like BYD.

⸻

3. Margin Compression

• If Tesla relies on Chinese components or exports vehicles between the U.S. and China, a 50% tariff could inflate costs.

• Unless Tesla raises prices (which risks losing sales), profit margins shrink, making the stock less attractive.

⸻

4. Supply Chain + CapEx Concerns

• To avoid tariffs, Tesla may need to invest more heavily in regional production and supply chains.

• Higher capex (capital expenditure) and shifting operations = more costs now, with uncertain payoff later—not great for short-term stock value.

⸻

5. Stock Volatility

• Tesla stock is already known for being volatile and reactive to headlines.

• A major trade escalation could cause a sharp dip, especially if analysts downgrade earnings projections or growth outlook.

⸻

Bottom Line:

Unless quickly resolved, this kind of trade tension would likely:

• Push Tesla’s stock down in the short term,

• Lead to bearish analyst revisions, and

• Make investors cautious about Tesla’s global risk exposure.