Panic Selloff Begins? Will the Recession Trade Really Happen?
The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8 yesterday, with its lowest point in May 2022 reaching 3.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies lost a combined $2.4 trillion in market value during Thursday’s selloff on Wall Street, marking their biggest one-day loss since March 16, 2020, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sent global markets into a tailspin.
Following the tariff storm yesterday, the market now faces the challenge of March’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and unemployment rate today.
The market expects no major surprises in the March jobs report, forecasting 140,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 4% YoY, all within long-term trends. However, mass layoffs at DOGE could introduce uncertainty.
Should you buy the dip amid extreme fear, or wait for today’s data before making a decision?
Does a Trading Recession Mean an Actual Recession?
Since the 21st century, trading recessions have only led to actual recessions three times:
2001 (lasted 8 months)
2007-2009 (lasted 18 months)
2020 (lasted 2 months)
Analysts believe that this year’s outlook remains pessimistic for several reasons:
US stock valuations remain high. If the market continues pricing in a recession, the current decline may not be nearly enough.
A bear market under Trump’s presidency is highly probable. Given such high valuations, a bear market is likely to occur at least once during Trump’s four-year term. If that’s the case, it might as well happen sooner rather than later—allowing Trump to shift the blame to Biden. A market drop early in his term is also preferable to a crash right before reelection.
A mild recession could force the Fed to cut rates early, preventing a severe economic downturn. This makes a moderate recession in the second half of the year increasingly likely. Since capital markets price in expectations, Q2 stocks may remain under pressure.
JPMorgan Chief Economist say global recession risk rises from 40% to 60% this year.
Market Selloff: Is Nvidia a Buy at $100?
The entire market has plunged, and Nvidia is now at a critical $100 level—is this a buying opportunity?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was down 33% from its high of $153.13. However, the last time Nvidia peaked at $346 (pre-split) in 2021, it declined 68% to $108 before bottoming out.
Now, with voices emerging that the semiconductor bull run is over, is the current correction far from enough?
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Nvidia hitting $100 caught my attention. It’s down 33% from recent highs, and some are questioning if the semiconductor rally is over. But we've seen this before—back in 2021, Nvidia dropped over 60% before rebounding. I still believe in its long-term role in AI and chips, so I see this as a chance to start accumulating, even if more volatility comes.
There’s no doubt recession risks are rising, and the short-term outlook is shaky. But whether it’s a trading recession or a real one, I’d rather position myself early than wait for perfect clarity. Fear creates opportunity—especially for those thinking long term.
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恐惧和贪婪指数降至8昨日，2022年5月最低点达到3.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$公司总共损失了2.4万亿美元周四华尔街抛售期间市值下跌，创下自周四以来最大单日跌幅2020年3月16日当COVID-19大流行的爆发使全球市场陷入混乱时。
跟随关税风暴昨天，市场现在面临的挑战是3月非农就业(NFP)报告和失业率当今。
你应该在极度恐惧中逢低买入，还是等今天的数据再做决定？
现在，随着声音的出现半导体牛市结束，是当前的修正远远不够？
🌟🌟🌟I have not seen such Fear and Panic in the markets, not since Covid days. Almost everything is in the red and it can really be scary . However it is times like this that we need a deep breath and decide what our next action would be.
As a long term investor, I will stay invested and continue to dollar cost average my favourite stocks and ETFs .
As Warren Buffett likes to say "When there is Fear in the markets, it is time to be greedy ."
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @Tiger_SG
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I firmly believe the worst is yet to come. The stock market has already seen significant declines, with the Nasdaq down 6% and the S&P 500 dropping 3%. The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 8, indicating extreme fear among investors. Additional retaliatory tariffs, particularly from the EU and China, are expected to take effect soon. These developments could push both the U.S. and global economies toward a recession. I anticipate the market will decline further, potentially falling by 20% and entering bear market territory in the coming weeks. Inflation is likely to spike, and the Federal Reserve may hold off on planned interest rate cuts. Overall, heightened volatility lies ahead, and the outlook appears grim.
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