To The Moon

Is the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ about to enter a bear market?

For the first time since March 2022, the S&P 500 is flashing a bear market signal.

📉 Trading under the weekly market bias

🚨 BX Trender is on track to close red for the first time in 2 years

💰 Big money could be leaving the market

Here’s what this means & what I’m watching next. 🧵

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Last time SPY trended under the weekly market bias?

• March 2022 → 15-month downtrend (-25%)

• Every time price trends under this level, we enter bearish structure.

Right now, SPY is under the market bias—but it’s still green.

🚨 If this flips red, we could be looking at the start of another sell-off.

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The market is very oversold.

• We could see a bounce back to $580-$600

• But if we reject there, it could be the final trap before more downside

🚨 Retail will chase, but smart money may already be exiting.

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March’s monthly candle is key.

• If it closes red, it will be the first time since March 2022

• BX Trender making lower lows = Money leaving the market

• Historically, this leads to continued sell-offs

Worst case scenario? We see SPY at $520 in the coming months.

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The ONLY way we avoid this bear market structure:

✅ SPY bounces to $580-$600 and holds above it

✅ The monthly BX Trender does NOT close red

🚨 If this fails, the market could bleed for months.

The market hates uncertainty—and right now, there’s a lot of it.

🔹 Best case: We reclaim $580-$600 and BX stays green.

🔻 Worst case: We reject & start another macro downtrend.