To The Moon

There’s a 70% chance $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ just entered a bear market.

NVDA is up 11% since we called the bottom.

But there’s a major red flag on the macro timeframe.

The monthly BX just turned red.

Last time this happened, NVDA dropped 45% over 10 months.

Here’s why history says this bounce might be a trap. 🔻

Image

(Historical Data = Why This Matters)

📉 The last 3 times NVDA’s monthly BX turned red:

🔻 Feb 2022 → -45% over 10 months

🔻 Nov 2018 → 18 months of consolidation

🔻 2015 → Nearly 1 year of consolidation

👉 Every time this happens, NVDA struggles for months.

Image

Bearish Case: Why This Could Get Ugly

❌ This setup is screaming caution:

• Monthly BX just turned red → Bearish macro signal

• Trading below the weekly market bias → Last time, this led to a 1-year downtrend

• Most bounces after this setup fail & lead to lower lows

🚨 Worst-case scenario?

We see NVDA drop to $100… possibly even $80.

Image

Short-Term Bounce Before the Drop?

⚠️ We might still get a bounce before the breakdown.

• Price just sold below the weekly market bias.

• Typically, this leads to a short-term bounce… before rejection.

📌 Max bounce zone: $130-$140

📉 If we reject there, NVDA is likely heading to $100 next.

Image

The ONLY way this setup turns bullish again:

✅ NVDA bounces to $130-$140… and holds.

✅ The monthly BX flips back to green.

🚨 If that doesn’t happen, expect a longer-term downtrend.

NVDA is at a decision point.

🔹 Best case: We reclaim $130-$140 & BX flips green.

🔻 Worst case: We reject and sell off toward $100.