To The Moon

In the past week, a lot of things have changed, and most of the changes are opposite to the main trend in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. With Trump officially starting his second term in the White House next week, does this "reverse" trend mean a new trend is coming or just the last correction?

First of all, let's look at crude oil prices. The price has gone up for three weeks in a row, but it still hasn't helped the bulls get back to the central axis range or break through the downward trend line since 2023. But at least it's not as weak as it was before, hovering around 70. Since there isn't much direct news to drive the oil prices, it's hard to say how reliable this increase is during the semi-holiday period. Whether it can break through the trend line resistance this week or next week will be the first important reference and test.

The overall logic is similar to before – we divide the oil prices into three ranges to tell the strong and the weak. There will definitely be some new changes with the new president, but for crude oil, it doesn't matter much whether it's strong above 85/84 or weak below 70.

In the long run, as an old money representative, it makes sense to bet on higher oil prices with Trump's background. But our previous thought was to push the price down first and then pull it up. And recently, the price has deviated a lot from the US stock market, so we need to be more careful when we want to buy the dip.

Then there's gold. We saw a different kind of rebound. There's a converging triangle on the weekly gold price line, which means the market structure will be more complicated in the near future. Although the rebound in a single week is good, if there's no new high, our judgment that gold is forming a medium and long-term top won't change.

Looking at the trend of silver also shows that precious metals are just rebounding and not reversing. Judging from the current price, there will be another chance to short in the short and medium term. Of course, for safety's sake, the long-term strategy of buying gold and shorting silver is better for investors who don't think gold will fall. As for the impact of non-farm payrolls and how the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, we still think they're just secondary factors and won't directly decide the general trend of gold in the long run.

Finally, let's quickly look at BTC. As we expected, the market has been in a long and complicated consolidation and correction. It once tested the support near 91,000 and then bounced back.

We're not sure if the low point of this platform is 9.1W or 8.6W, but we should know soon. If it falls below 90,000 in the next 1-2 weeks, it will definitely cause a lot of bulls to stop their losses, and the price will go down to a better "bargain-hunting and long area". But if Trump can't break through the support after taking office, it might mean that higher prices are the end of this round of correction.

Strategically, it's better to enter the market in batches like last time, or wait until the news and price are clear before going long. The upward target of this round is still around 12-13W.

All in all, we think this current counter-trend period doesn't mean there will be new trend changes in the future. After Trump starts his new ruling cycle, his anti-globalization and conservative stance won't be good for risky assets. When the price is right, you can use this two-week rally or downward trend to find a chance to get in.

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