To The Moon

It’s hard to believe that just a few years ago, $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ was riding high, with its stock trading at nearly $450 per share during the height of the pandemic. Today, it’s hovering around $35—a staggering 93% decline. For a company that revolutionized vaccine development with its mRNA technology, this fall from grace seems dramatic, but I believe there’s more to the story than meets the eye. While near-term headwinds are undeniable, the long-term potential for Moderna remains incredibly compelling, especially with its game-changing pipeline in cancer vaccines and other therapies.

MRNA Monthly Chart

The pandemic propelled Moderna into the spotlight, with its Covid-19 vaccine becoming a household name almost overnight. In 2022, the company generated $18 billion in revenue from its Covid shot, but those days are long gone. By 2024, revenue from the vaccine had fallen to just $3 billion, and the company is forecasting between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion in 2025. This sharp decline is largely due to:

• Decreasing Covid Vaccine Demand

Vaccination rates have dropped significantly as public interest in Covid boosters wanes. In the U.S., vaccination rates were down 7% in 2024 compared to 2023, and this trend is expected to continue.

• Increased Competition

Moderna’s market share in the U.S. retail Covid vaccine market fell to 40% in 2024 from 48% in 2023. Competitors like Novavax and Pfizer, as well as Sanofi’s new agreement to co-commercialize Novavax’s vaccine, are intensifying the fight for a shrinking market.

• Over-Reliance on a Single Product

For years, Moderna’s Covid vaccine was its sole revenue driver. While the company recently launched its RSV vaccine, it’s clear that the transition from pandemic profits to a diversified portfolio will take time—and investors aren’t patient.

• Future Uncertainty

Issues like manufacturing contract timing, CDC recommendations for RSV revaccination, and the unpredictability of demand have further clouded Moderna’s short-term outlook.

While the immediate future looks challenging, Moderna is far from a one-trick pony. The company has leveraged its revolutionary mRNA platform to develop a robust pipeline of vaccines and therapies.

1. Cancer Vaccines

This is where things get exciting. Moderna is currently in Phase III trials for its melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer vaccines. Early results from these trials have been extremely promising, showing significant potential for mRNA technology to revolutionize cancer treatment. If successful, these vaccines could be a game changer—not just for Moderna but for the entire biotech industry.

Cancer vaccines represent a massive, untapped market. Unlike Covid, which was a one-off global emergency, cancer is an ongoing challenge with enormous demand for better treatments. While these vaccines are still years away from commercialization, their long-term potential could justify the patience of investors willing to hold through the volatility.

2. Combination Vaccines

Moderna is also developing a Covid/flu combination shot that could be commercialized soon. This could address declining interest in standalone Covid boosters by offering a more convenient solution for seasonal vaccinations.

3. Norovirus Vaccine

Norovirus is a leading cause of gastroenteritis worldwide, and there’s currently no vaccine for it. Moderna’s work on a norovirus vaccine could open up another entirely new market.

4. Broader mRNA Applications

Beyond vaccines, Moderna’s mRNA platform has the potential to disrupt fields like autoimmune disease treatment, cardiovascular therapy, and even rare genetic disorders. These developments are still in the preclinical or early clinical stages, but they demonstrate the breadth of Moderna’s ambition.

Here’s the catch—all of these promising developments are several years away. While Moderna’s pipeline is impressive, it takes time to move through clinical trials, secure regulatory approvals, and commercialize new products. In the meantime, the company’s financial performance will be heavily weighed down by the decline of its Covid vaccine sales.

For investors, this creates a dilemma. Moderna’s long-term potential is undeniable, but the stock could remain stagnant for years while the S&P 500 and other growth stocks deliver stronger returns. It’s a classic “patience vs. opportunity cost” situation.

Moderna is taking steps to preserve cash and manage costs, reducing 2025 cash cost expenses by $1 billion and planning an additional $500 million in cuts for 2026. These measures are necessary, but they also highlight how far the company has fallen from its pandemic-driven profitability.

The big question is whether these cost reductions and the eventual diversification of its portfolio will be enough to reignite investor confidence. Personally, I believe that once products like the cancer vaccines start nearing commercialization, the market will begin to take notice again.

My View

While the current situation for Moderna is undeniably tough, I think the long-term story is far more compelling. The mRNA platform has already proven its value, and the company’s pipeline is packed with potential breakthroughs. I’m particularly excited about the cancer vaccines, which could redefine the company’s trajectory and provide life-changing treatments for patients.

That said, I also acknowledge the risks. Investors who buy into Moderna today could face years of flat or even declining performance as the company works through its pipeline. For those with a long-term horizon and a high tolerance for volatility, Moderna could be a fantastic opportunity. But for others, the opportunity cost of sitting on a stagnant stock while the broader market rallies might be too high.

Moderna’s plunge from $450 to $33 is a cautionary tale about the dangers of over-reliance on a single product and the challenges of transitioning from pandemic profits to a sustainable growth model. But it’s also a story of resilience and innovation.

For me, Moderna is a long-term play. The next two years might be bumpy, but the potential for game-changing cancer vaccines and other therapies makes it worth the wait. As always, it’s essential to balance conviction with diversification and to remember that investing in biotech comes with its own set of risks and rewards.

What do you think? Are Moderna’s long-term prospects worth the near-term pain, or is this a stock to avoid until its pipeline gets closer to commercialization?

Let me know your thoughts!

@MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @TigerSG @TigerEvents

Disclaimer: This is a general trade analysis and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.