EL fell to the level of 2017! Will you buy the products in Black Friday?

$Estee Lauder(EL)$ plummeted 15% after FY24 Q1 financial report fell short of expectations. The plunge made el’s stock price back to the level in 2017.

  • Net sales: $3.52 bln, narrowly missing estimates.

  • Slow recovery of prestige beauty in mainland China

  • Lowered its outlook for full-year 2024: Expects sales growth to range between down 2% to up 1%.

However, $e.l.f. Beauty Inc.(ELF)$ , the cosmetics company also released earnings yesterday, saw sales jump 76% yoy and raised its full-year guidance for a second quarter in a row.

Priced at $10-$20, ELF’s products are 1/5 of $Estee Lauder(EL)$’s prices.

Do you think EL can save its sales by price cut or not?

Is this environment means low-pricing products can grow better?

What’s your skincare and cosmetics choice for the upcoming Black Friday?

What’s your target price for bottoming out EL?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-03
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    $Estee Lauder(EL)$ stock has somewhat plunged quite a lot. it's at its 52 week low range. I guess marketing would help with sales though [USD] [USD] [USD] has to be paid to the marketing. but if it helps increase sales then why not. alternatively, having promotions would help too or perhaps come up with attractive membership privileges. just hope the company will do well soon. after all, it's a company that has somewhat a long history. target price perhaps 105 to 110 [Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]
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    • ShyonReplying toicycrystal
      Thanks for sharing!
      2023-11-03
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    • Universe宇宙Replying toicycrystal
      [ShakeHands]
      2023-11-03
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    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing my friend 😍😍😍
      2023-11-03
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  • koolgal
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP

    🌟🌟🌟女人的脸就是她的财富。雅诗兰黛是全世界女性使用的典型品牌。它遍布150个国家,是仅次于欧莱雅的世界第二大化妆品公司。这一切都始于1946年雅诗兰黛和她的丈夫,今天它仍然由兰黛家族的第二代和第三代经营。

    以今年迄今下跌54%的当前价格来看,这是一笔便宜货。雅诗兰黛是一家化妆品巨头,拥有雅诗兰黛、倩碧、Mac、Origins等24个不同品牌。

    我是雅诗兰黛的长期用户。我喜欢它提供的高质量美容产品,特别漂亮,香水和夜间修复有助于减少皱纹。

    雅诗兰黛通常会提供免费礼品。那是我通常购买我的产品的时候。

    雅诗兰黛有一个广泛的品牌护城河,因为像我这样的忠实客户会发现,在使用了这么多年后,很难转向更便宜的品牌。

    因此,雅诗兰黛对我来说是一个值得购买的东西,因为随着新产品和新市场的扩张,它将在未来继续呈指数级增长,尤其是在亚洲。

    股票市场在短期内是一台投票机,但在长期内却是一台称重机。正如沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说的,当市场出现恐惧时,是时候变得贪婪了!

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @Tiger_SG

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  • hd87
    ·2023-11-03
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    我认为EL可以通过降价在短期内挽救销售,如果该公司愿意这样做的话。低价产品不一定长得更好。质量也很重要。我的护肤品是Cetaphil,用完之后可能会换。触底的目标价可能是95-100美元。它也可能会进一步下跌。
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  • Shyon
    ·2023-11-03
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    • Universe宇宙
      [ShakeHands]
      2023-11-03
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    • b1uesky
      thk for sharing
      2023-11-03
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  • TimothyX
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP
    $雅詩蘭黛(EL)$2014財年Q1財務報告低於預期後暴跌15%。暴跌使el的股價回到了2017年的水平。
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  • Khikho
    ·2023-11-03
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    日薄西山了吗?$雅诗兰黛(EL)$2014财年Q1财务报告低于预期后暴跌15%。暴跌使el的股价回到了2017年的水平。
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  • LMSunshine
    ·2023-11-03
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    🐯🐯🐯 Come share your thoughts for 🐯🪙 I’m not so hopeful for $Estee Lauder(EL)$ as price cut can affect branding reputation. Also, there hasn’t been much new innovative products that are cutting age or attractive. Even with low pricing, I’m not sure how much more customers they can attract. Hence EL is not a stock that I would buy. Thanks loads @Tiger_comments ❣️
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  • Shyon
    ·2023-11-03
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    Estee Lauder! Surprisingly such a good stock can drop back to the level in 2017. I think by doing a price cut, this can probably save the company. Inflation is the headache thing and will reduce people rely on the luxury products. As long as the price reduces and become more affordable, I think many consumers will tend to switch to Estee Lauder again, especially at this period where the economy is not really that good. The price hike can be reintroduced again when the market recovers. My skincare and cosmetics choice will not be Estee Lauder until the price become cheaper, now my top choices are still Khiels and Clarin!
    For the target price, I think 100 is a good catch level with 123 as the short term price target.
    Would you make Estee Lauder great again? Or you prefer the brands? Haha.

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger

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  • nomadic_m
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP
    EL could take advantage of the lipstick effect by spending more on marketing campaigns that promote their less costly but still luxurious & superior quality products. black Friday/Christmas/new years/valentine's day are all back to back events where consumers go crazy on shopping & gifting

    meanwhile, it's shopping spree for retail investors like us. low chance for a legendary brand like Estee lauder to lose its mark in the 2020s. good luck to all!

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  • highhand
    ·2023-11-03
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    查看过去5年的历史PE。鉴于糟糕的前景,最好等到PE达到下限后再买卖现金担保看跌期权来购买股票。在这些水平,将是相对安全的,因为下行风险较低
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  • setia100
    ·2023-11-02
    Bear in mind, China's GDP forecast has been toned down. China Chinese love Luxury goods. When their disposable income shrinks, so do the luxury goods consumptions. EL had been enjoying good sales for the last 6 years. Now, they need to look away from China's market to gear up the sales like India 😁
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  • StickyRice
    ·2023-11-05




    Estee Lauder's overreliance on the skincare segment raises concerns about its risk profile. While the company is expected to benefit from a recovering Asian travel retail industry, it may still face headwinds from factors such as a consumer spending slowdown and increased competition. The company's margin profile is another concern, with gross margins declining over the years and hitting decade lows. Operating expenses, particularly in advertising and marketing, have grown significantly. Looking ahead, Estee Lauder's near-term and long-term outlooks suggest only moderate growth. With shares currently trading at a P/E ratio of over 35x and the risk-reward profile appearing unfavorable, investors are advised to exercise caution. $Estee Lauder(EL)$
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  • JohnL
    ·2023-11-04
    It has wide moat and I see this as set back caused by external macro factor. The products and margin seem ok. This is probably the good time for bargain hunters
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  • GoodLife99
    ·2023-11-03
    hmm...aft the lipstick effect article from TB, perhaps EL will recover close to year end/CNY/Vday festival?
    Worth of thinking for long term investors!

    Tigers, will you buy $Estee Lauder(EL)$ ?

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  • Aqa
    ·2023-11-03
    💋💄Very sure $Estee Lauder(EL)$ can benefit from higher ssles by price cut. Women need to look good even in bad times. EL should just concentrate on lipsticks because that is the most basic must-have item for beauty.
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  • AliceSam
    ·2023-11-03
    化妆品护肤品之类的公司,现在的竞争还是非常激烈,除非真的做得非常好,不然很难出圈的
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  • WonderElephant
    ·2023-11-03
    $Estee Lauder(EL)$ too atas for me already. I’m not a branded good person. I use skincare from supermarkets! Cheap and good! Thanks @Tiger_comments for Tiger coins!
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  • intheloop
    ·2023-11-03
    它曾经是我最喜欢的品牌之一。在当今的宏观环境下,行业和市场趋势发生了巨大变化,重新思考业务和营销策略并不是一件简单的事情。EL肯定有很多东西需要制定战略、执行和实施,以脱颖而出并重新获得市场地位。一个历史悠久的老牌品牌,当然希望它能再次变魔术。
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  • JWC
    ·2023-11-03
    TOP
    As long as women want to look beautiful EL will survive. May have to wait awhile more for recovery.  EL depends much on China market. They may need more promotion to garner more sales.
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  • Kok
    ·2023-11-03
    Their products are still awesome and there are no issues with the company. Headwinds are temporary and this is a great chance to get them on the cheap
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