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The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The "leader lies down and wins" strategy fails?

2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带

The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The "leader lies down and wins" strategy fails?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":127962201,"tweetId":"127962201","gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":3573688531814941,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorId":3573688531814941,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":34,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>111</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>111</body></html>","text":"111","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":1192656485,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192656485","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1624760703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192656485?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192656485","media":"券商中国","summary":"2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。\n去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带","content":"The first half of 2021 is coming to an end, and the mid-year strategy meetings of many securities firms are in full swing. Focusing on the trend, investment style and asset allocation of A shares in the second half of the year, various securities firms launched an invisible \"war of words\".From November last year to mid-February this year, white horse stocks with large market capitalization repeatedly hit excess returns and drove market valuations upward; Since early March this year, the market value of many white horse stocks has experienced a sharp correction, and even hit a new low this year's stock price, causing many \"top fund managers\" to be on the verge of \"myth shattering\".For this reason, the white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index also experienced a \"fight\" phenomenon at the mid-year brokerage strategy meeting. Some chief strategists of securities firms believe that the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy fails, and growth should be the first priority in allocation; Some chief strategists of securities firms said that the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance, which is still worth allocating.It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the market style and epidemic control situation have changed. Looking back at some strategies six months ago, many of them have gone astray or even overturned.Is the Mao index leader still worth embracing?A-share investors still remember the surge in market value of leading companies in various industries since November last year, and affectionately call them \"Industry + Mao\".However, the strategy of \"winning by lying down\" has gradually failed since March this year, such as \"real estate mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">Vanke A</a>, \"Insurance Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, \"Cement Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">Conch Cement</a>, and \"home appliance mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>When stock prices pulled back one after another, some stock prices even hit new lows for a period of time.On June 22, Chen Guo, chief analyst of Essence Securities, said at the mid-year strategy meeting that the current main line of the market is changing. Since March, the second-tier leaders of some core tracks have performed better than the first-tier leaders of some traditional tracks. In the future, the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy in the market will fail, and the logical growth of configuration will rank first, and the core of the market will also return to \"long track + high prosperity\".Chen Guo further pointed out that in recent years, A-shares have gradually emerged from a number of hard technology strength companies with rapid asset expansion, rapid performance improvement, and continuous strengthening of global competitiveness. From an investment perspective, the market outlook for semiconductors, new energy, medical services, military industry, new materials, labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And other industries deserve special attention.On June 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The 2021 medium-term investment strategy report meeting was held in Beijing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the differentiation trend of A-share stocks and funds will continue, and the Matthew effect of polarization of my country's stock market will be more significant in the future; In terms of market value structure, the ultra-large market value group has continued to dominate since 2017.For the second half of 2021, Xun Yugen said that only by keeping upright can we win. He further explained that the first echelon of ultra-large market capitalization companies represented by the Mao Index are still worth allocating, but under the general trend of industrial upgrading, intelligent manufacturing in the medium and large market is the key to obtaining excess returns.Xun Yugen believes that in the future, with the gradual advancement of institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares, the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies represented by Mao Index will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance.\"Surprisingly, the mid-to-large market is more cost-effective. As the economy gradually gets on the right track, the relative advantage of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. Referring to US stocks, the second A-share market value of 20-80 billion in the future is expected to further grow bigger and stronger.\" Xun Yugen said.Allocating growth stocks has become a consensusBrokerage Chinese reporters have noticed that the core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and they are facing shocks and differentiation in terms of valuation and profitability. Many brokerages have proposed to focus on growth stocks in their medium-term strategy meetings.Mid-June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>At the mid-term strategy meeting, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the domestic investment style was dominated by growth stocks and supplemented by value stocks. The sharp differentiation between growth and value has converged, and the relative cost performance of value stocks has decreased.Zhang Yidong said that science and technology innovation will lead the \"future core assets\". Since the beginning of this year, foreign positions have undergone obvious changes, and science and technology innovation board has become the new favorite. Secondly, the \"future core assets\" represented by science and technology innovation board and Growth Enterprise Market are relatively cost-effective. The PE ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 and the PE ratio of GEM and CSI 300 are at historical lows.In early June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>At the medium-term strategy meeting, it was proposed that A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Among them, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>He said that in terms of configuration, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase large consumption in the fourth quarter. Among them, the growth category includes growth manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor materials, national defense security and technology-enabled manufacturing, etc.) and growth consumption (cosmetics, medical beauty, sportswear and new tobacco, etc.); Large consumption mainly includes e-commerce, online consumption with a high proportion (branded clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals), and optional durable consumer goods (home appliances, automobiles and 3C electronics).On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>At the investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, although the market is currently paying more attention to inflation or stagflation, the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected on the supply side, but also on the demand side. The recovery of China's consumer demand is currently weak. In the second half of the year, the market may gradually pay more attention to the sustainability of growth and possible policy adjustments. The market style is expected to gradually return to the \"growth\" style.Wang Hanfeng said that considering factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the overall performance of the Chinese market in the second half of the year may be neutral, but the structure is relatively optimistic, and the style rotation of value outperforming growth may have come to an end; At the allocation level, it is suggested to \"light index, heavy structure, and partial growth\", and re-emphasize the general trend of \"new economy\" such as China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading after the market consolidation in the first half of the year.Looking back at the strategy report six months agoThe brokerage strategy meeting is a stage for brokerages to show professional research and judgment. Almost every brokerage will hold it at the end of the year, in the middle of the year or even quarterly. However, the change of macro environment and the style of A-share market sometimes makes the strategies of some securities firms slightly embarrassing.Looking back at 2020, the market first \"epidemic\" and then rose, and rebounded in shock. On December 31, 2020, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the year's high of 3,465.73 points, setting a new high since February 6, 2018. For the whole year of 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 64.96%. Brokerages and Public Offering of Fund have achieved good results as a whole.Most securities firms will put their strategies for 2021 at the end of 2020 and have greater confidence in 2021.2021, as the first year of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the first year after the \"thirtieth\" of A-shares, has shown a new look in terms of system, investor structure, and the quality of the development of listed companies, and the outside world is all concerned about novel coronavirus pneumonia. We have confidence in epidemic control and firmly believe that we can \"open the world map\" again.For example, in November 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>At the 2021 strategy meeting, the strategy team of Southwest Securities believes that at present, it is in the relay of the third big bull market in the history of A-shares, and the economic recovery continues to be better than expected. At the end of the year, the market is getting better and better, and there are opportunities for cyclical growth.Zhu Bin, chief strategist of Southwest Securities, said in an interview with the media that looking forward to the market in 2021, the high point of this bull market is expected to be around 4,000 points. From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the three major fields of manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure has fully recovered.Based on the judgment of the long-term, medium-term and short-term economic cycles, as well as the forecast of A-share earnings, valuation, supply and demand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>The strategy team also believes that A-shares will still be on the \"bull back\" in 2021, and the main line of top-down investment is: global reflation and manufacturing investment cycle recovery; Corresponding allocation ideas: trading \"re-inflation\", with bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.In December 2020, Dongguan Securities released its A-share investment strategy for the first half of 2021. In its strategy report, the company believes that the global economic situation is expected to usher in a gradual recovery in the first half of 2021, while the domestic economic operation has returned to normal, and domestic demand such as investment and consumption is still supported by policies. The economy will continue to pick up in 2021. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate is about 7%, showing a pattern of first high and then stable.The recurrence of the epidemic and the mutation of the virus are beyond the imagination of some strategic analysts. For example, last December,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">Shanxi Securities</a>The strategy team believes that the global economy is expected to emerge from the epidemic in 2021, and the establishment of an immune barrier through global vaccines will completely end the epidemic, which will recover significantly and have a positive impact on the equity market. The domestic economy continues to recover, policies have returned to normal in an orderly manner, and manufacturing investment and service consumption have become new driving forces leading the next stage of domestic economic recovery.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! 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The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n券商中国 \n2021-06-27 10:25\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe first half of 2021 is coming to an end, and the mid-year strategy meetings of many securities firms are in full swing. Focusing on the trend, investment style and asset allocation of A shares in the second half of the year, various securities firms launched an invisible \"war of words\".From November last year to mid-February this year, white horse stocks with large market capitalization repeatedly hit excess returns and drove market valuations upward; Since early March this year, the market value of many white horse stocks has experienced a sharp correction, and even hit a new low this year's stock price, causing many \"top fund managers\" to be on the verge of \"myth shattering\".For this reason, the white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index also experienced a \"fight\" phenomenon at the mid-year brokerage strategy meeting. Some chief strategists of securities firms believe that the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy fails, and growth should be the first priority in allocation; Some chief strategists of securities firms said that the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance, which is still worth allocating.It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the market style and epidemic control situation have changed. Looking back at some strategies six months ago, many of them have gone astray or even overturned.Is the Mao index leader still worth embracing?A-share investors still remember the surge in market value of leading companies in various industries since November last year, and affectionately call them \"Industry + Mao\".However, the strategy of \"winning by lying down\" has gradually failed since March this year, such as \"real estate mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">Vanke A</a>, \"Insurance Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, \"Cement Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">Conch Cement</a>, and \"home appliance mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>When stock prices pulled back one after another, some stock prices even hit new lows for a period of time.On June 22, Chen Guo, chief analyst of Essence Securities, said at the mid-year strategy meeting that the current main line of the market is changing. Since March, the second-tier leaders of some core tracks have performed better than the first-tier leaders of some traditional tracks. In the future, the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy in the market will fail, and the logical growth of configuration will rank first, and the core of the market will also return to \"long track + high prosperity\".Chen Guo further pointed out that in recent years, A-shares have gradually emerged from a number of hard technology strength companies with rapid asset expansion, rapid performance improvement, and continuous strengthening of global competitiveness. From an investment perspective, the market outlook for semiconductors, new energy, medical services, military industry, new materials, labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And other industries deserve special attention.On June 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The 2021 medium-term investment strategy report meeting was held in Beijing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the differentiation trend of A-share stocks and funds will continue, and the Matthew effect of polarization of my country's stock market will be more significant in the future; In terms of market value structure, the ultra-large market value group has continued to dominate since 2017.For the second half of 2021, Xun Yugen said that only by keeping upright can we win. He further explained that the first echelon of ultra-large market capitalization companies represented by the Mao Index are still worth allocating, but under the general trend of industrial upgrading, intelligent manufacturing in the medium and large market is the key to obtaining excess returns.Xun Yugen believes that in the future, with the gradual advancement of institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares, the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies represented by Mao Index will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance.\"Surprisingly, the mid-to-large market is more cost-effective. As the economy gradually gets on the right track, the relative advantage of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. Referring to US stocks, the second A-share market value of 20-80 billion in the future is expected to further grow bigger and stronger.\" Xun Yugen said.Allocating growth stocks has become a consensusBrokerage Chinese reporters have noticed that the core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and they are facing shocks and differentiation in terms of valuation and profitability. Many brokerages have proposed to focus on growth stocks in their medium-term strategy meetings.Mid-June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>At the mid-term strategy meeting, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the domestic investment style was dominated by growth stocks and supplemented by value stocks. The sharp differentiation between growth and value has converged, and the relative cost performance of value stocks has decreased.Zhang Yidong said that science and technology innovation will lead the \"future core assets\". Since the beginning of this year, foreign positions have undergone obvious changes, and science and technology innovation board has become the new favorite. Secondly, the \"future core assets\" represented by science and technology innovation board and Growth Enterprise Market are relatively cost-effective. The PE ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 and the PE ratio of GEM and CSI 300 are at historical lows.In early June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>At the medium-term strategy meeting, it was proposed that A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Among them, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>He said that in terms of configuration, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase large consumption in the fourth quarter. Among them, the growth category includes growth manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor materials, national defense security and technology-enabled manufacturing, etc.) and growth consumption (cosmetics, medical beauty, sportswear and new tobacco, etc.); Large consumption mainly includes e-commerce, online consumption with a high proportion (branded clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals), and optional durable consumer goods (home appliances, automobiles and 3C electronics).On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>At the investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, although the market is currently paying more attention to inflation or stagflation, the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected on the supply side, but also on the demand side. The recovery of China's consumer demand is currently weak. In the second half of the year, the market may gradually pay more attention to the sustainability of growth and possible policy adjustments. The market style is expected to gradually return to the \"growth\" style.Wang Hanfeng said that considering factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the overall performance of the Chinese market in the second half of the year may be neutral, but the structure is relatively optimistic, and the style rotation of value outperforming growth may have come to an end; At the allocation level, it is suggested to \"light index, heavy structure, and partial growth\", and re-emphasize the general trend of \"new economy\" such as China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading after the market consolidation in the first half of the year.Looking back at the strategy report six months agoThe brokerage strategy meeting is a stage for brokerages to show professional research and judgment. Almost every brokerage will hold it at the end of the year, in the middle of the year or even quarterly. However, the change of macro environment and the style of A-share market sometimes makes the strategies of some securities firms slightly embarrassing.Looking back at 2020, the market first \"epidemic\" and then rose, and rebounded in shock. On December 31, 2020, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the year's high of 3,465.73 points, setting a new high since February 6, 2018. For the whole year of 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 64.96%. Brokerages and Public Offering of Fund have achieved good results as a whole.Most securities firms will put their strategies for 2021 at the end of 2020 and have greater confidence in 2021.2021, as the first year of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the first year after the \"thirtieth\" of A-shares, has shown a new look in terms of system, investor structure, and the quality of the development of listed companies, and the outside world is all concerned about novel coronavirus pneumonia. We have confidence in epidemic control and firmly believe that we can \"open the world map\" again.For example, in November 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>At the 2021 strategy meeting, the strategy team of Southwest Securities believes that at present, it is in the relay of the third big bull market in the history of A-shares, and the economic recovery continues to be better than expected. At the end of the year, the market is getting better and better, and there are opportunities for cyclical growth.Zhu Bin, chief strategist of Southwest Securities, said in an interview with the media that looking forward to the market in 2021, the high point of this bull market is expected to be around 4,000 points. From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the three major fields of manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure has fully recovered.Based on the judgment of the long-term, medium-term and short-term economic cycles, as well as the forecast of A-share earnings, valuation, supply and demand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>The strategy team also believes that A-shares will still be on the \"bull back\" in 2021, and the main line of top-down investment is: global reflation and manufacturing investment cycle recovery; Corresponding allocation ideas: trading \"re-inflation\", with bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.In December 2020, Dongguan Securities released its A-share investment strategy for the first half of 2021. In its strategy report, the company believes that the global economic situation is expected to usher in a gradual recovery in the first half of 2021, while the domestic economic operation has returned to normal, and domestic demand such as investment and consumption is still supported by policies. The economy will continue to pick up in 2021. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate is about 7%, showing a pattern of first high and then stable.The recurrence of the epidemic and the mutation of the virus are beyond the imagination of some strategic analysts. For example, last December,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">Shanxi Securities</a>The strategy team believes that the global economy is expected to emerge from the epidemic in 2021, and the establishment of an immune barrier through global vaccines will completely end the epidemic, which will recover significantly and have a positive impact on the equity market. The domestic economy continues to recover, policies have returned to normal in an orderly manner, and manufacturing investment and service consumption have become new driving forces leading the next stage of domestic economic recovery.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4f39c6a574e992fecb4bb520fbc93","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192656485","content_text":"2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。\n去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带动市场估值上行；今年3月上旬至今，不少白马股市值出现大幅回调，甚至创下今年股价新低，致使不少“顶流基金经理” 濒临“神话破灭”。\n为此，围绕茅指数为代表的白马股，在年中券商策略会上也出现“打架”现象。有券商首席策略分析师认为，简单的“龙头躺赢”策略失效，配置上应该将成长性放在首位；有些券商首席策略分析师则表示，龙头公司长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正，仍然值得配置。\n值得一提的是，今年以来，市场风格和疫情控制形势多变，站在当下回顾半年前一些策略，走偏甚至翻车的也不少。\n茅指数龙头还值得拥抱？\nA股投资者对去年11月以来，各个行业的龙头公司市值大涨记忆犹新，并亲切冠以“行业+茅”称呼。\n不过，“龙头躺赢”的策略在今年3月以来逐渐失效，如“地产茅”万科A、“保险茅”中国平安、“水泥茅”海螺水泥，以及“家电茅”格力电器等股价纷纷回调，一些股价甚至还创出一段时间来的新低。\n6月22日，安信证券首席分析师陈果在年中策略会上表示，当前市场主线正在生变。3月以来部分核心赛道二线龙头表现优于部分传统赛道一线龙头，未来市场简单的“龙头躺赢”策略失效，配置逻辑上成长性将居首位，市场核心也将回归“长赛道+高景气”。\n陈果进一步指出，近年来A股已逐步走出一批资产高速扩张、业绩快速提升、全球竞争力不断加强的硬技术实力企业。从投资角度看，后市半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业值得重点关注。\n6月23日，海通证券在北京举办2021年中期投资策略报告会。海通证券首席经济学家荀玉根认为，A股个股及基金的分化趋势还将延续，未来我国股市两极分化的马太效应将更加显著；市值结构方面，2017年以来超大市值组持续占优。\n对于2021年下半年，荀玉根表示，守正出奇方能致胜。他进一步解释，守正出奇即以茅指数为代表的第一梯队超大市值公司仍然值得配置，但产业升级大趋势下，中大盘中的智能制造才是获取超额收益的关键。\n荀玉根认为，未来随着A股机构化、国际化趋势逐步推进，以茅指数为代表的龙头公司长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正。\n“出奇即中大盘性价比更高。随着经济逐渐步入正轨，以茅指数为代表的超大盘股在基本面上的相对优势不会像去年那么极致。参考美股，未来A股第二档即200-800亿的中大市值的公司有望进一步变大变强。”荀玉根称。\n配置成长股成为共识\n券商中国记者注意到，过去数年躺赢的核心资产已不便宜，且在估值和盈利方面面临震荡分化，不少券商在中期策略会中提出聚焦于成长股。\n6月中旬，兴业证券中期策略会上，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东表示，下半年国内的投资风格是以成长股为主、价值股为辅，成长和价值的剧烈分化已经收敛，价值股的相对性价比降低。\n张忆东表示，科创将引领“未来核心资产”。今年以来，外资持仓发生了较为明显的变化，科创板成为新宠。其次，科创板和创业板为代表的“未来核心资产”，具有相对性价比。中证500/沪深300的PE比值、以及创业板与沪深300的PE比值都处于历史低位。\n6月初，中信证券在中期策略会上提出，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。预计下半年A股净流入资金规模达到2200亿元。其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。\n中信证券表示，配置上，建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配大消费。其中，成长类包括成长类制造（新能源、半导体材料、国防安全以及科技赋能制造等）和成长型消费（化妆品、医美、运动服饰及新型烟草等）；大消费主要包括电商、线上占比高的消费（品牌服饰、美妆日化），以及可选耐用消费品（家电、汽车和3C电子）等。\n6月16日，中金公司2021下半年投资策略会上，中金公司首席策略师王汉锋表示，展望下半年，虽然市场当前较为关注通胀或滞胀，但疫情冲击不仅体现在供给侧，也体现在需求侧。中国消费需求复苏目前偏弱，下半年市场可能逐步更加关注增长的持续性，以及可能的政策调整，市场风格上有望逐步重回偏“成长”风格。\n王汉锋表示，综合增长、估值、政策及海外市场等因素，下半年中国市场整体表现可能偏中性，但结构上相对乐观，价值跑赢成长的风格轮动可能已经在尾声；配置层面上建议“轻指数、重结构、偏成长”，在上半年的市场盘整后重新重视中国产业升级与消费升级等“新经济”大趋势。\n回望半年前策略报告\n券商策略会是券商展示专业研判的舞台，几乎每家券商年末、年中甚至季度都会举办。不过，宏观环境和A股市场的风格的转换，有时候会令一些券商的策略略显尴尬。\n回望2020年，大盘先“疫”后扬，震荡反弹。2020年12月31日，A股三大股指全线收红，沪指突破年内高点3465.73点，创2018年2月6日以来新高。2020全年，沪指累涨13.87%，深成指累涨38.73%，创业板指累涨64.96%。券商和公募基金整体都取得不错的业绩。\n大多数券商将2021年的策略会放在2020年末，且对2021年抱有较大的信心。\n2021年作为“十四五”开局之年和A股“三十而立”后的第一年，无论在制度、投资者结构，还是上市公司发展质量上都呈现出新气象，且外界均对新冠肺炎疫情控制抱有信心，坚信能重新“打开世界地图”。\n例如，2020年11月，西南证券2021年策略会上，西南证券策略团队就认为，当前，正处于A股历史上第三次大牛市的中继，经济复苏延续比预期要好，年底行情渐入佳境，周期成长皆有机会。\n西南证券首席策略分析师朱斌接受媒体采访时表示，展望2021年市场，预计此轮大牛市的高点就是4000点左右。从投资结构上看，制造业、房地产和基建三大领域的投资全面复苏。\n基于经济长、中、短周期的判断，以及A股盈利、估值、供需的预测，华泰证券策略团队也认为，2021年A股仍在“牛背”上，自上而下投资主线为：全球再通胀和制造业投资周期回升；对应配置思路：交易“再通胀”，以大宗为盾，以制造为矛。\n2020年12月，东莞证券发布2021年上半年A股投资策略。该公司在策略报告中认为，2021年上半年全球经济形势有望迎来逐步恢复态势，而国内经济运行已经回归常态，投资、消费等内需仍受到政策支持，2021年经济将持续回暖，预计全年GDP增速为7%左右，并呈现先高后稳的格局。\n而疫情的反复、病毒的变异，也是一些策略分析师无法想象的。例如去年12月，山西证券策略团队认为，2021年全球经济有望走出疫情，通过全球疫苗建立免疫屏障彻底结束疫情，显著回暖，对权益市场影响偏正面。而国内经济延续复苏，政策有序回归常态，制造业投资、服务类消费成为引领国内经济下一阶段复苏的新动能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3695,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5042144,"commentId":"5042144","gmtCreate":1624819150854,"gmtModify":1663230147238,"authorId":3573688531814941,"author":{"id":3573688531814941,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorId":3573688531814941,"name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127962201,"objectIdStr":"127962201","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"111","text":"111","html":"111","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":5067498,"commentId":"5067498","gmtCreate":1624962363492,"gmtModify":1663230271735,"authorId":3573688531814941,"author":{"id":3573688531814941,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorId":3573688531814941,"name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127962201,"objectIdStr":"127962201","type":1,"supId":5042144,"supIdStr":"5042144","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"111","text":"111","html":"111","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}