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Ylychg
2021-05-31

Gambling on Bitcoin, will Tesla's second-quarter profit be hit hard?

如果比特币价格跌到3万美元之下，特斯拉因此所受到的损失就已经足够将公司其他业务当季获得的利润一笔抹杀。那么，为什么比特币的会计规则会导致特斯拉第二季度遭受亏损？他们以平均3.2万美元购入的每一枚比特币，第一季度结束时价格已经接近5.9万美元。特斯拉只有最终卖出这些比特币时，才能兑现利润。只是，大多数比特币价格都是大涨的，特斯拉才能够卖出10%的比特币，实现了可观的利润。

Gambling on Bitcoin, will Tesla's second-quarter profit be hit hard?

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Yuyi
·2021-05-31
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Yuyi
·2021-06-03
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·2021-06-02
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":110837957,"tweetId":"110837957","gmtCreate":1622437061079,"gmtModify":1704184422517,"author":{"id":3579527905061704,"idStr":"3579527905061704","authorId":3579527905061704,"authorIdStr":"3579527905061704","name":"Ylychg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bba94c2f5b09cfa3b014163f59f3ba","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110837957","repostId":2139285436,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2139285436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622435945,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2139285436?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 12:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gambling on Bitcoin, will Tesla's second-quarter profit be hit hard?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2139285436","media":"金十数据","summary":"如果比特币价格跌到3万美元之下，特斯拉因此所受到的损失就已经足够将公司其他业务当季获得的利润一笔抹杀。那么，为什么比特币的会计规则会导致特斯拉第二季度遭受亏损？他们以平均3.2万美元购入的每一枚比特币，第一季度结束时价格已经接近5.9万美元。特斯拉只有最终卖出这些比特币时，才能兑现利润。只是，大多数比特币价格都是大涨的，特斯拉才能够卖出10%的比特币，实现了可观的利润。","content":"At first, this investment looked more like reckless gambling, but now, when the virtual currency market is completely madness, this investment is even more unbearable. Earlier this year, Elon Musk will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>US $1.5 billion in cash was invested in Bitcoin, and the world was shocked after the news came out. With the soaring price of virtual currency, the theoretical profit of Tesla's investment once exceeded US $1.3 billion. Even after the recent sharp drop in Bitcoin prices, the profit is still considerable.However, this investment also has a huge negative impact, which many financial media and Wall Street analysts have not noticed. Under the special accounting rules used by Tesla for its investment in Bitcoin, the company is likely to be forced to include an \"impairment\" in its second-quarter earnings report-even if the investment as a whole still seems to be profitable.If the price of Bitcoin can maintain the current level of about $38,000, the blow is not expected to be too big, but even so, in order to offset the book losses, Tesla needs to sell a considerable part of the Bitcoin it still eats, and this will naturally lead to another blow to Bitcoin prices. If the price of Bitcoin falls below $30,000, Tesla's losses will be enough to obliterate the profits made by the company's other businesses in the quarter.More importantly, this impairment will once again remind investors that Musk actually invested a large sum of money in a super volatile asset, making the already risky Tesla stock even more risky.At the beginning, many investors thought that Musk's investment in Bitcoin was far-sighted, but now, people can only be more and more inclined to believe that Musk did a stupid thing and bought back a powder keg for the company himself.Some observers have begun to notice the threat posed by Bitcoin. \"Many investors actually don't want Musk to get involved in virtual currency at all.\" Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives commented, \"He should focus on vehicle production and delivery, global electric vehicle development trends, and how to deal with the chip shortage crisis. However, too much of his energy is now invested in Bitcoin.\"What investors are particularly intolerable is that Musk's recent words and deeds on the issue of virtual currency have directly suppressed the value of the company's Bitcoin.\"It's like setting fire to your own house,\" he commented. \"Bitcoin has become a dark cloud on top of the whole Tesla story, and all the trouble is self-inflicted.\"So why did Bitcoin's accounting rules cause Tesla to suffer a loss in the second quarter? If the price of Bitcoin falls severely, how big is the loss likely?Once substantial paper profitsOn February 8, Tesla disclosed in its annual report document submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission that Tesla had invested US $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. However, the real disclosure of detailed data, such as how much they bought, the average buying price, and how much they gained, is still in the first quarter financial report.The report shows that as of March 31, Tesla owned a total of US $2.48 billion worth of Bitcoin. Based on the closing price of US $58,919 that day, it can be roughly calculated that the number held by Tesla is about 42,100. From early February to the end of March, Tesla sold 10% of its Bitcoin, worth US $268 million, while the purchase price was US $140 million, making a profit of US $128 million. These also mean that at its peak, Tesla once owned about 46,800 Bitcoin.Adding up the Bitcoin on Tesla's books and the sold, the total value of their original holdings was once $2.748 billion. Based on the investment of US $1.5 billion, Tesla's gains and unrealized as of March 31 exceeded US $1.2 billion, which means that in eleven weeks, it has achieved a return on investment of more than 80%. Every Bitcoin they bought for an average of $32,000 had a price close to $59,000 at the end of the first quarter.Accounting rules headachesAt that time, Bitcoin's gamble really made people feel like a great success. After all, in the first quarter, excluding the sales of carbon emission credits, Tesla's pre-tax profit by building and selling cars was only a mere US $15 million.From this perspective, making the financial report look decent is almost entirely due to Bitcoin's investment. However, the financial report of the first quarter actually laid a foreshadowing that few people realized, which means that bigger problems may occur in the second quarter and more quarters in the future. Although Tesla has sold 10% of its Bitcoin investment and recorded considerable profits, they will still be forced to include the pre-tax profit \"impairment\" of $27 million, which means that the net income will be reduced from $128 million to $101 million.Under the regulations of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB),Virtual currency should be regarded as \"intangible assets with indefinite maturity\"Under this principle, companies can have a variety of ways to dispose of virtual assets in their balance sheets.One option is to compare the original purchase price to \"existing value\" or \"fair value\" at the end of each quarter. This means that if the price of Bitcoin is lower than the purchase price of any part of Bitcoin on the book at the end of the second quarter, that is, June 30, they must be included in \"impairment\", which is equivalent to the difference between the \"existing value\" and the \"fair market value\".However, what Tesla uses is obviously not the \"end-of-quarter comparison\" method, but the method of impairment at any time during the quarter. Specifically, even if they do, once the market price of Bitcoin falls below the buying price of any part of the Bitcoin they hold at any point in the quarter, they must immediately record the impairment. At the end of the quarter, they reported all these impairments under the category of \"restructuring\".This means that,If some of Tesla's Bitcoin were bought at a price of $35,000 after a sharp rise in early February, and on May 19, the price of Bitcoin fell to $31,000, they would have to make a $4,000 write-down for each Bitcoin, but after that, the price of Bitcoin rose back, and Tesla could not cancel these write-downs.In other words, the impairment is permanent.In fact, even if Bitcoin's market price later rose sharply, far exceeding the cost paid by Tesla, they couldn't be included in the profit. Tesla can only cash in profits when it finally sells these Bitcoin. In bookkeeping, before these Bitcoin are sold, there are always only two values, either the initial investment cost or the \"existing value\" after impairment.In short, when the market price of Bitcoin falls below the bid that Tesla once bought one or several pieces, the corresponding loss will be included in the book, but when the price rises above this \"existing value\" At that time, unless they sell Bitcoin, they can't count it as a gain.In fact, in the first quarter, part of Tesla's Bitcoin once fell below the initial purchase price, resulting in an impairment of $27 million. However, the prices of most Bitcoin have soared, and Tesla was able to sell 10% of Bitcoin and achieve considerable profits.This impairment may be substantialIn mid-May, Musk announced that considering Bitcoin's worrying energy consumption, they would stop Bitcoin's plan to pay for car purchases. For a time, many investors began to worry that Tesla would completely clear Bitcoin, forcing Musk to come out later to refute rumors that Tesla had no plans to sell the remaining Bitcoin. Therefore, it may be assumed that Tesla still has the remaining 90%, that is, 42,100 Bitcoin.However, the total value of these Bitcoin is no longer the same as it was a few weeks ago. In mid-April, Bitcoin rose to an all-time high of $64,863. At that time, Bitcoin in Tesla's hands was once worth $2.73 billion, and unrealized gains reached about $1.36 billion, 150 million higher than at the end of the first quarter.However, since then, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 40%, and by noon on May 25, it has fallen to about $38,000, while Tesla's unrealized profit of $1.36 billion has also shrunk to $378 million.According to the first quarter financial report, the \"existing value\" of Tesla's remaining Bitcoin is US $1.331 billion, which means that on average, each one is worth US $31,600. However, it should be pointed out that averaging prices are meaningless when calculating impairment. The important thing is that during this quarter, the lowest price that Bitcoin has ever appeared. Among the Bitcoin held by Tesla, any buying price higher than this price will be impaired.So far, in the second quarter, the lowest point of Bitcoin's price appeared on May 19, which was US $30,682, while Tesla originally purchased Bitcoin from January 1 to February 8, with an average price of 31,600 US dollars, which means that a considerable part of it must be higher than US $30,682.The simplest assumption can be made, dividing Tesla's 42,100 Bitcoin pieces into two, half of which were purchased for US $29,500 and the other half for US $33,700. In this case, that is more than half of the average price compared to the low point on May 19, which means a corresponding impairment of $65 million in the second quarter.This number does seem small, but what's terrible is that it will embarrass the entire company and Musk-investors will feel that the once-seemingly successful investment in Bitcoin has actually lost money.To avoid this from happening, Musk can only break his word and sell part of Bitcoin to fill the $65 million hole. Let's assume that the price of Bitcoin will remain at the level of $38,000, then Musk needs to sell about 10,000 pieces to fill the hole.Considering that Musk has now become a super benchmark figure in the currency circle,A Tesla sale of this magnitude is sure to give the owner's heart beat, leading to another round of price dive. If Musk's sale causes Bitcoin's price to fall back to $25,000 in December of last year, then Tesla will experience a new impairment of $278 million. If it falls to $2, the impairment will reach $484 million-You know, not long ago, their theoretical profit was $1.3 billion.Investors should remember that, in fact, if the sales of carbon emission credits, which Musk himself admitted would decline rapidly or even disappear, are deducted, Tesla actually suffered a pre-tax loss of US $127 million in the past four quarters.This means that even if Tesla can continue to rely on cars to achieve profitability this year and in the next few years, this already low profit amount will be easily erased by the drop in Bitcoin prices.","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gambling on Bitcoin, will Tesla's second-quarter profit be hit hard?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGambling on Bitcoin, will Tesla's second-quarter profit be hit hard?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n金十数据2021-05-31 12:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt first, this investment looked more like reckless gambling, but now, when the virtual currency market is completely madness, this investment is even more unbearable. Earlier this year, Elon Musk will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>US $1.5 billion in cash was invested in Bitcoin, and the world was shocked after the news came out. With the soaring price of virtual currency, the theoretical profit of Tesla's investment once exceeded US $1.3 billion. Even after the recent sharp drop in Bitcoin prices, the profit is still considerable.However, this investment also has a huge negative impact, which many financial media and Wall Street analysts have not noticed. Under the special accounting rules used by Tesla for its investment in Bitcoin, the company is likely to be forced to include an \"impairment\" in its second-quarter earnings report-even if the investment as a whole still seems to be profitable.If the price of Bitcoin can maintain the current level of about $38,000, the blow is not expected to be too big, but even so, in order to offset the book losses, Tesla needs to sell a considerable part of the Bitcoin it still eats, and this will naturally lead to another blow to Bitcoin prices. If the price of Bitcoin falls below $30,000, Tesla's losses will be enough to obliterate the profits made by the company's other businesses in the quarter.More importantly, this impairment will once again remind investors that Musk actually invested a large sum of money in a super volatile asset, making the already risky Tesla stock even more risky.At the beginning, many investors thought that Musk's investment in Bitcoin was far-sighted, but now, people can only be more and more inclined to believe that Musk did a stupid thing and bought back a powder keg for the company himself.Some observers have begun to notice the threat posed by Bitcoin. \"Many investors actually don't want Musk to get involved in virtual currency at all.\" Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives commented, \"He should focus on vehicle production and delivery, global electric vehicle development trends, and how to deal with the chip shortage crisis. However, too much of his energy is now invested in Bitcoin.\"What investors are particularly intolerable is that Musk's recent words and deeds on the issue of virtual currency have directly suppressed the value of the company's Bitcoin.\"It's like setting fire to your own house,\" he commented. \"Bitcoin has become a dark cloud on top of the whole Tesla story, and all the trouble is self-inflicted.\"So why did Bitcoin's accounting rules cause Tesla to suffer a loss in the second quarter? If the price of Bitcoin falls severely, how big is the loss likely?Once substantial paper profitsOn February 8, Tesla disclosed in its annual report document submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission that Tesla had invested US $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. However, the real disclosure of detailed data, such as how much they bought, the average buying price, and how much they gained, is still in the first quarter financial report.The report shows that as of March 31, Tesla owned a total of US $2.48 billion worth of Bitcoin. Based on the closing price of US $58,919 that day, it can be roughly calculated that the number held by Tesla is about 42,100. From early February to the end of March, Tesla sold 10% of its Bitcoin, worth US $268 million, while the purchase price was US $140 million, making a profit of US $128 million. These also mean that at its peak, Tesla once owned about 46,800 Bitcoin.Adding up the Bitcoin on Tesla's books and the sold, the total value of their original holdings was once $2.748 billion. Based on the investment of US $1.5 billion, Tesla's gains and unrealized as of March 31 exceeded US $1.2 billion, which means that in eleven weeks, it has achieved a return on investment of more than 80%. Every Bitcoin they bought for an average of $32,000 had a price close to $59,000 at the end of the first quarter.Accounting rules headachesAt that time, Bitcoin's gamble really made people feel like a great success. After all, in the first quarter, excluding the sales of carbon emission credits, Tesla's pre-tax profit by building and selling cars was only a mere US $15 million.From this perspective, making the financial report look decent is almost entirely due to Bitcoin's investment. However, the financial report of the first quarter actually laid a foreshadowing that few people realized, which means that bigger problems may occur in the second quarter and more quarters in the future. Although Tesla has sold 10% of its Bitcoin investment and recorded considerable profits, they will still be forced to include the pre-tax profit \"impairment\" of $27 million, which means that the net income will be reduced from $128 million to $101 million.Under the regulations of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB),Virtual currency should be regarded as \"intangible assets with indefinite maturity\"Under this principle, companies can have a variety of ways to dispose of virtual assets in their balance sheets.One option is to compare the original purchase price to \"existing value\" or \"fair value\" at the end of each quarter. This means that if the price of Bitcoin is lower than the purchase price of any part of Bitcoin on the book at the end of the second quarter, that is, June 30, they must be included in \"impairment\", which is equivalent to the difference between the \"existing value\" and the \"fair market value\".However, what Tesla uses is obviously not the \"end-of-quarter comparison\" method, but the method of impairment at any time during the quarter. Specifically, even if they do, once the market price of Bitcoin falls below the buying price of any part of the Bitcoin they hold at any point in the quarter, they must immediately record the impairment. At the end of the quarter, they reported all these impairments under the category of \"restructuring\".This means that,If some of Tesla's Bitcoin were bought at a price of $35,000 after a sharp rise in early February, and on May 19, the price of Bitcoin fell to $31,000, they would have to make a $4,000 write-down for each Bitcoin, but after that, the price of Bitcoin rose back, and Tesla could not cancel these write-downs.In other words, the impairment is permanent.In fact, even if Bitcoin's market price later rose sharply, far exceeding the cost paid by Tesla, they couldn't be included in the profit. Tesla can only cash in profits when it finally sells these Bitcoin. In bookkeeping, before these Bitcoin are sold, there are always only two values, either the initial investment cost or the \"existing value\" after impairment.In short, when the market price of Bitcoin falls below the bid that Tesla once bought one or several pieces, the corresponding loss will be included in the book, but when the price rises above this \"existing value\" At that time, unless they sell Bitcoin, they can't count it as a gain.In fact, in the first quarter, part of Tesla's Bitcoin once fell below the initial purchase price, resulting in an impairment of $27 million. However, the prices of most Bitcoin have soared, and Tesla was able to sell 10% of Bitcoin and achieve considerable profits.This impairment may be substantialIn mid-May, Musk announced that considering Bitcoin's worrying energy consumption, they would stop Bitcoin's plan to pay for car purchases. For a time, many investors began to worry that Tesla would completely clear Bitcoin, forcing Musk to come out later to refute rumors that Tesla had no plans to sell the remaining Bitcoin. Therefore, it may be assumed that Tesla still has the remaining 90%, that is, 42,100 Bitcoin.However, the total value of these Bitcoin is no longer the same as it was a few weeks ago. In mid-April, Bitcoin rose to an all-time high of $64,863. At that time, Bitcoin in Tesla's hands was once worth $2.73 billion, and unrealized gains reached about $1.36 billion, 150 million higher than at the end of the first quarter.However, since then, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 40%, and by noon on May 25, it has fallen to about $38,000, while Tesla's unrealized profit of $1.36 billion has also shrunk to $378 million.According to the first quarter financial report, the \"existing value\" of Tesla's remaining Bitcoin is US $1.331 billion, which means that on average, each one is worth US $31,600. However, it should be pointed out that averaging prices are meaningless when calculating impairment. The important thing is that during this quarter, the lowest price that Bitcoin has ever appeared. Among the Bitcoin held by Tesla, any buying price higher than this price will be impaired.So far, in the second quarter, the lowest point of Bitcoin's price appeared on May 19, which was US $30,682, while Tesla originally purchased Bitcoin from January 1 to February 8, with an average price of 31,600 US dollars, which means that a considerable part of it must be higher than US $30,682.The simplest assumption can be made, dividing Tesla's 42,100 Bitcoin pieces into two, half of which were purchased for US $29,500 and the other half for US $33,700. In this case, that is more than half of the average price compared to the low point on May 19, which means a corresponding impairment of $65 million in the second quarter.This number does seem small, but what's terrible is that it will embarrass the entire company and Musk-investors will feel that the once-seemingly successful investment in Bitcoin has actually lost money.To avoid this from happening, Musk can only break his word and sell part of Bitcoin to fill the $65 million hole. Let's assume that the price of Bitcoin will remain at the level of $38,000, then Musk needs to sell about 10,000 pieces to fill the hole.Considering that Musk has now become a super benchmark figure in the currency circle,A Tesla sale of this magnitude is sure to give the owner's heart beat, leading to another round of price dive. If Musk's sale causes Bitcoin's price to fall back to $25,000 in December of last year, then Tesla will experience a new impairment of $278 million. If it falls to $2, the impairment will reach $484 million-You know, not long ago, their theoretical profit was $1.3 billion.Investors should remember that, in fact, if the sales of carbon emission credits, which Musk himself admitted would decline rapidly or even disappear, are deducted, Tesla actually suffered a pre-tax loss of US $127 million in the past four quarters.This means that even if Tesla can continue to rely on cars to achieve profitability this year and in the next few years, this already low profit amount will be easily erased by the drop in Bitcoin prices.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/86goIZirm7j\">金十数据</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://d.ifengimg.com/w100_h62_q90/x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2021_23/33A5B702A54BBB337E94EC5F1D128FBB5D492EE8_size50_w1280_h854.jpg","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/86goIZirm7j","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2139285436","content_text":"最初，这笔投资看上去就更像是鲁莽的赌博，而现在，在虚拟货币市场彻底疯狂的情况下，这笔投资就更加让人难以忍受了。今年早些时候，马斯克（Elon Musk）将特斯拉的15亿美元现金投入了比特币，消息传出后举世震惊。伴随虚拟货币价格飙涨，特斯拉的这笔投资，理论获利一度超过13亿美元，哪怕在比特币价格近期的大跌后，直面利润依然可观。可是，这笔投资也有一个巨大的负面影响，是许多财经媒体和华尔街分析师都没有注意到的。特斯拉对其比特币投资所使用的特殊会计规则之下，该公司很可能将被迫在第二季度财报中计入一笔“减值”（impairment）——哪怕这笔投资整体看来依然是赚的。如果比特币价格还能够保持当下大约3.8万美元的水平，打击预计将不算太大，但是即便如此，为了抵消账面损失，特斯拉也需要卖掉自己依然吃有的比特币当中的相当部分，而这自然会导致比特币价格再受一轮打击。如果比特币价格跌到3万美元之下，特斯拉因此所受到的损失就已经足够将公司其他业务当季获得的利润一笔抹杀。更重要的是，这笔减值会再度提醒投资者，马斯克当初竟然将大笔资金投入了一种波动超级剧烈的资产，让原本已经风险十足的特斯拉股票变得风险更加巨大了。想当初，许多投资者还觉得马斯克投资比特币是高瞻远瞩，但是现在，人们只能越来越倾向于认定，马斯克是干了一件傻事，自己给公司买回了一个火药桶。比特币造成的威胁，已经有一些观察家开始留意到了。“众多投资者其实根本就不希望马斯克卷入到虚拟货币里去。” Wedbush Securities 分析师艾维斯（Daniel Ives）评论道，“他应该专注于车辆生产和交付，全球电动汽车发展潮流，以及如何应对芯片短缺危机。可是，现在他的精力太多部分都投入了比特币。”投资者尤其无法容忍的是，马斯克在虚拟货币问题上的朝秦暮楚，近期的言行更是直接打压了公司吃有的比特币的价值。“这简直像是点火烧自己家的房子。”他评论道，“比特币已经成了整个特斯拉故事头顶的一朵乌云，所有的麻烦都是咎由自取。”那么，为什么比特币的会计规则会导致特斯拉第二季度遭受亏损？如果比特币价格下跌严重，亏损又可能有多大？曾经可观的纸面利润在2月8日，特斯拉在递交证监会的年报文件当中披露，特斯拉投资了15亿美元的比特币。不过，真正披露细节数据，如他们到底买进了多少，平均买入价格多少，利得多少等，还是在第一季度的财报当中。报告显示，截至3月31日，特斯拉总计拥有价值24.8亿美元的比特币，根据当日58919美元的收盘价格，可以大致算出特斯拉持有的数量是4.21万枚左右。从2月上旬到3月底，特斯拉售出了自己持有的10%比特币，价值2.68亿美元，而买进价格是1.4亿美元，获利1.28亿美元。这些也就意味着，在最多时，特斯拉曾经拥有大约4.68万枚比特币。将特斯拉账面上的，以及卖掉的比特币合计起来，他们当初持有的总价值一度是27.48亿美元。基于15亿美元的投入，特斯拉截至3月31日时已经和尚未兑现的利得超过了12亿美元，意味着十一周的时间里，就获得了80%以上的投资回报率。他们以平均3.2万美元购入的每一枚比特币，第一季度结束时价格已经接近5.9万美元。令人头痛的会计规则当时，比特币豪赌确实让人有大获成功之感，毕竟第一季度当中，不计碳排放积分销售，特斯拉靠着造车卖车实现的税前利润只有区区1500万美元。从这个角度来说，让财报显得体面几乎全部都是比特币投资的功劳。只是，第一季度的财报当中其实也埋下了少有人意识到的伏笔，意味着第二季度，以及未来更多季度可能会发生更大的问题。虽然特斯拉已经售出了10%的比特币投资，录得了可观的利润，但是他们依然将被迫计入2700万美元的税前盈利“减值”，这就意味着净所得从1.28亿美元减少到1.01亿美元。根据财务会计准则委员会（FASB）的规定，虚拟货币应该视为“期限不定的无形资产”，而在这一原则下，企业可以有多种在资产负债表当中处置虚拟资产的方法。一个选项是在每个季度结束时，将原始购买价格与“现存价值”或“公平值”相比。这也就意味着，如果比特币的价格在第二季度结束，也就是6月30日时低于账面上任何一部分比特币的买进价格，他们就必须计入“减值”，减记额度相当于“现存价值”与“公平市场价值”之间的差值。不过，特斯拉所采用的显然不是“季度末比较”的方法，而是季度当中随时减值的方法。具体来说就算会，一旦在季度当中的任何时刻，比特币的市场价格跌到了他们持有的任何一部分比特币的买进价格之下，他们就必须当即计入减值。在季度结束时，他们将这些全部的减值都统归到“重组”门类当中报告。这也就意味着，如果特斯拉的比特币当中有一部分是在2月初大涨后，以3.5万美元的价格买进的，而5月19日，比特币价格跌到了3.1万美元，他们就必须为每一枚比特币做出4000美元减记，但是之后，比特币价格重新涨回来，特斯拉也不能取消这些减记。换言之，减值是具有永久性的。事实上，哪怕比特币的市场价格后来大幅上涨，远远超过特斯拉付出的成本，他们也不能计入利得。特斯拉只有最终卖出这些比特币时，才能兑现利润。在簿记当中，这些比特币在卖出之前，永远只有两种价值，要么是初始投资成本，要么是减值之后的“现存价值”。简而言之，当比特币的市场价格跌到了特斯拉曾经购买一枚或者若干枚的出价之下，账面就会计入相应的亏损，但是当价格涨到这一“现存价值”之上时，他们除非卖掉比特币，否则就不能计入利得。事实上，在第一季度当中，特斯拉的一部分比特币就曾经跌到了最初的买价之下，导致了2700万美元的减值出现。只是，大多数比特币价格都是大涨的，特斯拉才能够卖出10%的比特币，实现了可观的利润。这次减值可能极可观5月中旬，马斯克宣布，考虑到比特币令人担心的能耗问题，他们将叫停比特币支付购车的计划。一时间，很多投资者都开始担心特斯拉会彻底出清比特币，迫使马斯克稍晚时出来辟谣说，特斯拉并没有卖掉余下比特币的计划。因此，不妨假定特斯拉目前依然吃有那余下的90%，即4.21万枚比特币。不过，这些比特币的总价值与几周之前相比已经不可同日而语了。4月中旬，比特币涨到了64863美元的历史最高点，当时特斯拉手中的比特币一度价值27.3亿美元，未兑现利得达到13.6亿美元左右，比第一季度结束时高出1.5亿美元。可是，从那之后，比特币价格下跌40%以上，至5月25日中午已经跌到了3.8万美元左右，而特斯拉一度13.6亿美元的未兑现利得，也缩水到了3.78亿美元。根据第一季度财报，特斯拉余下比特币的“现存价值”为13.31亿美元，这就意味着平均下来，每一枚价值3.16万美元。不过，需要指出的是，在计算减值时，平均价格是没有意义的。重要的是在这一季度当中，比特币曾经出现的最低价位，特斯拉持有的比特币当中，任何买入价格高于这一价位者，都将形成减值。迄今为止，第二季度当中，比特币价格的最低点出现在5月19日，为30682美元，而特斯拉当初是1月1日到2月8日期间购买的比特币，平均价格3.16万美元，这也就意味着，里面肯定有相当部分的价格是高于30682美元的。可以做一个最简单的假设，将特斯拉的这4.21万枚比特币一分为二，其中一半是以2.95万美元价格购入，另外一半是3.37万美元。在这只情况下，那超过平均价格的一半与5月19日低点相比，意味着第二季度的相应减值为6500万美元。这数字看上去确实不大，但是要命的是，这会让整个公司和马斯克受窘——投资者会觉得，那曾经似乎很成功的比特币投资竟然亏损了。要避免这种情况发生，马斯克只能自食其言，卖出一部分比特币，来填上6500万美元的窟窿。姑且假定比特币价格会一直维持3.8万美元的水平，那么马斯克要填上窟窿，就需要卖掉大约1万枚。考虑到马斯克目前已经成为了币圈的超级风向标人物，特斯拉如此规模的卖出肯定会让所有者心惊肉跳，导致价格的又一轮跳水。如果马斯克的卖出使得比特币价格跌回去年12月的2.5万美元，那么特斯拉又将因此出现2.78亿美元的新减值，若是跌到2美元，减值更将达到4.84亿美元——要知道，不久前，他们的理论利润还曾经有13亿美元。投资者应该记得，其实如果扣掉马斯克自己也承认会迅速下滑乃至消失的碳排放积分销售，特斯拉过去四个季度实际上是遭受了1.27亿美元的税前亏损。这也就意味着，哪怕特斯拉在今年和未来几年当中能够持续靠汽车实现盈利，这本就不高的盈利额度都会很轻松被比特币价格的下跌抹掉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"EBON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3561,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4515577,"commentId":"4515577","gmtCreate":1622437138385,"gmtModify":1680792140606,"authorId":3568885585448254,"author":{"id":3568885585448254,"idStr":"3568885585448254","authorId":3568885585448254,"name":"Yuyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6eeb186816d2dcbffddfa79e1b8f21","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110837957,"objectIdStr":"110837957","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"应该不至于","text":"应该不至于","html":"应该不至于","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":4515611,"commentId":"4515611","gmtCreate":1622437396833,"gmtModify":1680792141425,"authorId":3579527905061704,"author":{"id":3579527905061704,"idStr":"3579527905061704","authorId":3579527905061704,"name":"Ylychg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bba94c2f5b09cfa3b014163f59f3ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110837957,"objectIdStr":"110837957","type":1,"supId":4515577,"supIdStr":"4515577","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"?","text":"?","html":"?","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":4557453,"commentId":"4557453","gmtCreate":1622692203308,"gmtModify":1663227852246,"authorId":3568885585448254,"author":{"id":3568885585448254,"idStr":"3568885585448254","authorId":3568885585448254,"name":"Yuyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6eeb186816d2dcbffddfa79e1b8f21","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110837957,"objectIdS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