Looking at the latest industry reports, the AI supply crunch shows no signs of easing anytime soon. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$ The key bottleneck remains advanced packaging. TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is expected to grow from around 70K wafers in 2025 to 130K–140K by the end of 2026, but even with that expansion, supply is still projected to trail demand by roughly 20%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ has reportedly locked in 800K–850K CoWoS wafers for 2026, which accounts for more than half of TSMC's annual CoWoS capacity. At the same time, TSMC's
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ In short, AMD's after-hours pullback isn't really a verdict on the company's fundamentals, which still look solid to me. It feels more like a reaction to the unusually high expectations already built into a stock that had more than doubled by 2026 before this report came out. With Helios expansion and MI450 GPU deployments still in early stages, it seems like investors want clearer near-term revenue visibility before they're willing to push the next leg higher.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Getting a bit confused from time to time is fine, especially on Mondays. TSMC already reported earnings. The next event is a full week away, which counts as long-term for people who think long-term means next Tuesday. We'll wait and see how things look closer to Friday. NVDA reports on 8/26. I know that's still a long way off, but it's doing the same thing as TSMC — the stock price before 8/26 will probably be higher than the $223.47 from 5/21. NVDA didn't actually enter bear market territory recently, while TSMC briefly did on 7/29. TSMC takes care of itself. It doesn't need anyone's help or confusion. TSMC at $406.79 is only an 11.48% premium over the ordinary shares, which is already weird enough to
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Looks like hedge funds were behind the quick sell-off from $420. Roughly the same number of puts at the $420 strike were bought right before the drop. They just whack the stack to make money on both sides.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Media, social platforms, news articles, reporting — it's all a joke. Just three days ago the sky was falling, the universe was ending, the blackest days in semis, and now today they've done a complete 180. Suddenly everything is rosy, the outlook is wonderful. Don't listen to any of it, especially the negative.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I accumulated around 1,400 shares of TSM over several months in 2021, buying between $100 and $120 a share. Total cost was about $160,000. I was selling puts and the shares would get put to me from time to time. By late 2023, it was pretty much dead money or a losing position. I decided to visit Taiwan to get a firsthand sense of the geopolitical risk that was weighing on the share price. The people I met there didn't seem worried about it. Kind of reminded me of visiting South Korea, where locals don't seem too concerned about North Korea either. Not sure if that's overconfidence on their part, but it was enough to convince me to hold on to my investment. Glad I did. It has more than tripled since the
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I was thinking back to a discussion we had about using dividends as income, and I compared it to how Warren Buffett capitalized on Coca Cola, bought in the 1970s and still holds. I think the bigger picture was missed there. My view is that chips are the new oil. Technology doesn't advance without them. Building a fab company takes around 10 years, and it's extremely hard for any startup to start from scratch. So I still see TSM as a growth company rather than a value company, and competition isn't an immediate concern. Here's how I look at the numbers: let's assume the stock doubles in 3 years, then 4 years after that, then 6 years after that, and after that it becomes a conventional value company with
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ earnings today. Apple has always been one of TSM's biggest customers — historically either the largest or at least in the top two, depending on the year and product cycle.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Just a remark. I have enough shares for my own situation and my cost basis is very low. I'm not looking to add here. But if someone is watching for an entry, this could be one to keep on the radar. You can't time the market, but I think the share price will be much higher 2-3 years out. Tech and markets in general are unpredictable, and these are just my own thoughts, not investment advice. Everyone should do their own research and decide what risks they're comfortable with.
$iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$ Japan is saying Korea has gotten a bit too cocky lately. Contract manufacturers in South Korea are raising prices and asking for a premium, almost like they are TSM. That might be true, but the way things are playing out, it looks like market makers could be using this to buy cheap. It looks super scary. Maybe taking the Asian long view and just parking it in an IRA for a year or so makes sense.