To The Moon

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  Always have to be honest with myself here. I'm up decently on this one now, but I was 12-16 months early buying such a large core position without trading around it. My math had this closer to a 350-400 stock by now if tech indexes had performed. Four quarters of accelerating AWS growth wasn't enough when capex at this scale keeps accelerating even faster with no end in sight. AWS can grow over 50%, but it doesn't matter until the market can see peak spending growth arrive and the FCF trough get overcome despite the huge absolute dollar amounts involved. TLDR: it's a 250-260 stock that undershoots or overshoots for a bit but comes back to that base each time. Still, I'm not selling a single s

$Oracle(ORCL)$ For now, I'll stick with quick scalping. Once we're within 2-4 weeks of the next ER on Dec 9, I'm looking to load up for an ER play.

$Oracle(ORCL)$ Too bad for whoever sold this morning with a $165 cost base. If you're upside down on this one, just give it some time. Of course, opportunity cost is something to think about. I'm holding.

$Oracle(ORCL)$ When will the shorts finally have had enough? I think it's time for this to go up and not look back.

$Oracle(ORCL)$ Call buyers are stepping in. Buyers are hitting the ask across multiple expiries, with $3.2M in displayed call flow. Nearly $1.94M is concentrated in Oct. 30 $130/$135 calls. Oct. 30 $135 calls: $1.17M across 977 contracts. Oct. 30 $130 calls: a $770K block, 500 contracts. Dec. 18 $150 calls: $482.6K across 409 contracts. Oct. 16 $145 calls: a $134.4K sweep above the ask. No put flow in this view. Looks like possible positioning for more upside.

$Oracle(ORCL)$ Looking at the Oracle situation, a few things stand out. Larry Ellison canceled his scheduled share sales. The founder suddenly decided not to sell. An Oracle board member stepped in and bought $3.5 MILLION worth of shares with their own money. Meanwhile, Wall Street has been busy painting a pretty grim picture around Oracle. I'm no detective, but something here doesn't quite add up. The people closest to the company are making moves that don't exactly scream panic. So the real question is: what do the insiders know that Wall Street doesn't?

$Oracle(ORCL)$ If Oracle only delivers on 20% of its RPO, it would still nearly double current earnings.

Oracle looks like a better long-term buy with a better margin of safety. There are worse stocks than $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$  today, but $Oracle(ORCL)$  is just too good to pass on.

$Oracle(ORCL)$ We're in Phase B or C of the Wyckoff Accumulation pattern.

$Oracle(ORCL)$  Interesting setup right now, even if most people aren't paying attention. The Thursday drop from 142 to 136 came with 40 million volume, then Friday saw a move from 140.5 back to 138 with 25 million. Today will probably close around 136.5 or near Friday's open, likely around 20 million. Volume is drying up ahead of the macro waves. What this suggests is that absorption of the 136-140 range is mostly done. From here, two things could happen. If PPI/CPI surprise badly, that's a macro hit and there's nothing to be done about it. If they come in as expected or better, that would be the first sign for institutions. Then there's ASML and TSM. If both show demand is here, that clears the second fog behi